RCTV to go off the air again

In a bad case of déjà vu all over again we are getting ready to see the signal of RCTV go off our cable TV system tomorrow. The discombobulated legal mechanism used by the government cannot hide that the real reason why RCTV is going off the air is because Chavez wants so.

There is no Chomskyan grandeur anywhere in here (Chavez is now the most powerful media mogul of our history); there is no desire to create a true public service TV here (the new TVes, the ersatz to substitute RCTV on open signal has already established itself as a subservient Chavez propaganda tool); there is not even the slimmest desire to make a deal and let the opposition with a small space in the hertzian kingdom (the government has not offered any UHF to RCTV, nor to any other TV station that cannot be verified as a pro Chavez joint).

No, there is just the naked desire to shut up one of the only two TV systems where critics of the government can express themselves freely, even if only on cable or satellite. In a country where pay TV does not even reach 25% of the country, that 10% of the people at a given time might chose to watch something else than a Chavez speech is simply unbearable for our local kinglet wanna-be.

You doubt me? Look at today's speedy decision form the high court of Venezuela where it refuses to consider the petitions of RCTV. We read this gem:

...it is of public knowledge that the said business continues to operate as a broadcast station that can transmit its information and entertainment contents, using its its tools and technical material, which leads one to presume that it is fulfilling its contractual and financial commitments.

That is right, you read it it perfectly: the high court of Venezuela, because RCTV TODAY is showing up on cable is saying that it has suffered of no prejudice and that its complaint against a CONATEL ruling has no basis. That for almost two months RCTV was off the air and still kept is staff did not cause any prejudice to RCTV coffers; that it cannot reach a quarter of its previous audience anymore because of its cable only presence does not affect its business performance; that its transmission equipment has being seized by the government without any form of compensation causes no financial loss to RCTV.

But what else can you expect form a judicial system where the president, Luisa Estela Morales, has been herself fired from a tribunal until recovered from chavismo to become the president of the judicial system of Venezuela? Such judges can only rule in favor of the daemon that allowed them to reach the top in a new Faustian bargain. On their work and merit only these judges would have never reached exalted positions where such merits are measured, evaluated and compared. No wonder the Venezuelan judicial system today is an active participant in the lynching of RCTV. But history is rich with examples of morally corrupt judges who erased with stupefying ease from their vocabulary words such as fairness, due process, impartiality.

-The end-

The Saucepan Therapy

So RCTV managed to get a space in Cable, not for long since the government is already under excuses that I don’t fully understand; planning to close it again, probable next Wednesday. The idea of a Venezuelan TV Channel; that even counting it can only be seen by a very low percentage of the population, is not forced to broadcast the Chavez speeches and government propaganda unlike the rest of the Venezuelans TV Channels and radio stations (the famous “cadenas”), just hurts Mr. Chavez pride way too much. Because of that, a “Cacerolazo” was planned today at 8:00 Pm. I have described many times before on this blog what a “Cacerolazo” is, but I will do it again for the new readers: it’s a way of protest that consist on hitting kitchen tools for symbolize the lack of food (because we are hitting empty saucepan that should be filled with food, that’s the whole metaphor) but it can rather symbolize the lack of other things too like free speech in this case.
We didn’t knew about the “Cacerolazo” and while we all were having dinner and watching TV, our neighbors started to annoy us with the sound of spoons hitting saucepans. My mom and I quickly ran into the kitchen and took whatever we need in order to protest, while my sister was taking her baby to the back of the house. After we protested on the balcony for a while, we decided to go out of the house and do the same on the sidewalk.
My street is an extremely quite and lonely street; so usually for big “cacerolazos” in my neighborhood I have to walk some blocks till the main avenue to find some people to protest with. This time, we didn’t feel like walking so we just stood there; in my front door, with the company of some random car passing by and the neighbors that annoyed us at first: an old couple who lives in front of us. Just four people and the rest of the houses quiet, like nothing; probably just watching TV and wondering when those crazy fanatic protester neighbors were about to shut up.
People might wonder many things about this little crazy action, the questions may be centered on the effects that such a tiny protest can have. What’s the purpose of four people hitting kitchen tools at 8 Pm in a street of some distant neighborhood in Caracas? What do we plan to get with it? Why are we still hitting the same saucepan using the same wood spoon as we did back on 2002? (And look at the results!).
Those lonely protests might sound sad and pathetic for many and I don’t have any argument to defend myself from such accusations because the truth is that, they are right: those protests have no effect at all what’s so ever. And then, why we still do it?
Probably because we need to, because we can’t fight against the horrible things that are happening even if we’d like to do that but we have to somehow proof to ourselves that we are still resisting, and not just crossing our arms in front of the TV. The “Cacerolazo” my mom, the old couple and me made today felt more like a crying or like a scream not expecting to be heard, than a protest.
And still, the government will close RCTV (or the little that remains of the network) again next Wednesday, probably. Several proposed constitutional reforms are touching our feet while we are getting used to the lack of white sugar and the adventures to get some meat; while our friends are leaving or planning to and the streets looks more insecure than ever, but you might end up in jail for saying something about it.
Then, the minute we start a “Cacerolazo”, even a lonely one; all the misfortunate events passed by like a flashback or a menace hunting you. You answer back hitting the sauce pan even harder and you feel a little bit safe, not of the madness coming but from the possible indifference and resignation kills all the integrity you have still inside. Then, I ironically think that none “Cacerolazo” will ever be able to end the pain, but it works as some unusual therapy: breaking all over again a wood spoon because of so many hits is your way of saying “I’m still here after all”.
This is probably hard to understand for a lot people here and abroad and I’m not expecting anyone to get it. Don’t look for any sense or logic on this issue, but rather, notice that for get throughout this, is important to have at least the illusion of resistance, even if it’s just an illusion.

Chavez and George Bush strange similarities

Chavez is trying to make a career out of accusing George Bush of everything that is evil in the world, including everything in Venezuela where all the failures of chavismo are blamed on one or another CIA conspiracy.

However Chavez looks much more like Bush than some of his followers would care to admit. For example the unconditional support to underlings that messed it up big time. The way that George Bush goes to bat for some of his White House employees is becoming quite spectacular and borders the ridicule. Recently, look for example how Gonzalez, the Attorney General, is defended even at increasing political costs, when removing him and getting a new attorney would simplify Bush's life greatly as he is needed for more pressing matters that are harassing his administration.

This past Sunday Chavez came to bat to defend Ramirez, his oil minister, his PDVSA president. PDVSA is sinking. Oil production has ceased to increase and has started going down. Bad decisions since 2003 indicate that oil production is very, very far from being able to increase again, and probably will lose an extra 20% production capacity within a year or two. But if these crucial economic decisions were not enough to remove from office any minister who took such decisions, amen of a president, the political decisions of Ramirez are even worse. From his outright political campaign involvement in 2006 in violation of all elemental electoral rules, for which he got barely a slap on the wrist, to his open, deliberate, constant support for the discriminatory apartheid society making Tascon list, Ramirez has gutted PDVSA from any responsible personnel that could help the company regain some credibility. Instead Ramirez is presiding over the creation of a huge unproductive bureaucracy where people are more interested in watching what is on the screen saver of their coworker (Chavez pictures are apparently mandatory) than balance sheets and accounting of management decisions. That is, one of the most sophisticated industries of the world will be run by folks chosen strictly on their political credentials. Nobody cares anymore whether they can manage an oil rig.

And I am not even touching the direct financial corruption that is linked with such style of management.

In any normal country, any democratic country, not only Ramirez would have been fired but he would be probably under judicial investigation, indicted and contemplating jail anytime soon. But In Venezuela, Chavez yesterday defies common sense, political or human, by sticking his neck for Ramirez and taunting us with a threat of keeping him for years to come. Of course he will, Ramirez forks over Chavez any dollar that he still manages to collect from oil sales, even if he is gutting the response ability and maintenance habits of PDVSA. And as any good accomplice, Ramirez is willing to shield his boss from any blame.

However there is a difference between Bush and Chavez: by January 2009 Bush and his accomplices will be out of office whereas Ramirez and Chavez might be there for years, stealing the country's future, if anything by their sheer incompetence. And that is quite a difference, whether you like Bush or not.


-The end-

Chavez electoral lies and manipulations

I was busy yesterday so apparently I missed another one of those intellectually offensive cadenas which seem to be the only type of cadenas Chavez is able to give these days.

The first thing we can say is that whenever the intensity and frequency of cadenas increase, it is an admission by the government that its polling numbers are not good and they must use Chavez himself as the propaganda gun to recover some more favorable numbers. This has been working quite well in the past when Chavez could announce each time a new social program or some presumed revolutionary victory. But as the social programs are not running too well these days and oil production is going down and RCTV is a bitter sore in the popular classes, we may ask ourselves how effective this abuse will be this time. After all, even with chavismo, at some point bis repetita non placent.

Thus I had to rely on newspaper accounts to read what the hell Chavez did a cadena yesterday. They were enough just in the release from El Universal.

Megalomania, when you hold us in your grip!

First, we were treated to what will be one of the main teams of the constitutional changes, indefinite reelection of Chavez. Thus he is presenting himself as the only man capable of directing the country and henceforth he should be allowed to do so. We can even say he is metabolizing it in his organs when he says such silliness:

but I am convinced (...) that these six years for me, for the project that I incarnate, that I push forwards with my bones, my liver, my kidneys, my lungs, my throat, with my nails, the period is not enough.

After such a, literally, visceral statement one is left with no doubt as to the mental state of the beloved leader. Wits, by the way, might notice that there was no mention of Chavez brains...

The referendum lies

Another nice little item I found is this one: if in two years from now someone asks for a recall election and the motion wins, he will go. Yeah, right...

The first question here is why present himself as Venezuela's only hope and assume that in two years he might be gone after all? What is that? A Freudian subconscious uncertainty in his infallibility? An admission of electoral treachery? Or plain delusional B.S.? It is when you read such nonsense that you really understand the need to have journalists, good ones, in front of him and asking him on the spot why such incongruities in his speech. A self assured leader does not even speculate on such things when he is asking for a life presidency! I am pretty sure that neither Napoleon nor Castro ever said such nonsense. Though we do see once again the virtue of cadenas for Chavez, he can talk, talk talk and zero accounting, no straight minded reporter to call him on his flights of fancy. Eventually the feeble minded audience gets wrapped by these contradictions and embraces them.

But there is something better: during the electoral campaign towards the December 2006 election Chavez made one of his important campaign speeches where he promised to call himself for a recall election on his next term. Yes, that is right, as a way to soothe the Venezuelan people, to distract from the fear of six more years of autocracy, to help forget momentarily the apartheid Tascon List as a killer of referenda and democracy, Chavez offered to ask himself for a recall election on his term by December 2010. After yesterday we can be assured that there will be no such referendum in 2010, nor probably ever again if Chavez gets his unlimited reelection.

The world media campaign against Venezuela

Apparently it seems that the US orchestrated negative campaign against Venezuela is so powerful that it dominates even the European press. That is right, all the respectable European newspapers and media and governments have bought into the US argument that closing a TV station for personal vendetta is a bad thing. What is this? huh?

But it gets better: Chavez is sorry that his ambassadors in Europe do not have access to the means to counter such a campaign. What? Venezuelan ambassadors are not allowed to make cadenas in Europe? The nerve of these Europeans!!!!!!

The French case

If the ridicule of the above comment were not enough, we can add another one ridicule with the pretension that the Venezuelan system is just like the French system where presidential reelection is unlimited. True but wrong anyway.

It seems to have all started with Sarkozy writing to Chavez a "friendly letter". I suspect that the new French administration is not quite aware of chavismo and sure enough its first entreat is shamelessly used for propaganda purposes by Chavez. Serves them right. For the record I would like to cite myself when I wrote here that Segolene Royal would have probably had a more principled foreign policy than Sarkozy as the French right has tended to be quite mercenary in its foreign policy. Sarkozy seems to be headed that way, at least in LatAm. Note also that the social democrats of France have rebuked Chavez in ways that the right has never done, that I know of anyway. And then people wonder how come I tend to vote Socialist in France, but I digress...

What Chavez said reflected 1) his complete ignorance of French political history and 2) his willingness to distort anything he can distort to suit his goals.

French presidency was a 7 year term affair established in the constitution of 1871. That constitution was written at a time when France was not sure it would return to a monarchic system or move forward a republican one. Thus the head of state was designed as a weak constitutional monarchy: either a president or a king could take over the job and either one will be equally well controlled by the parliament. That is the way the French system was from 1871 until 1958: a strong parliamentarian system where the head of state, a president it turned out over time, was only good enough to inaugurate exhibits and make colorful state visits outside of the country. The president by the way was elected by the French Congress, not the people!!!

Obviously in such system a president could be president for life: there was no way he could affect much the destinies of the country. In fact this was even implied in a 7 year term which aimed at promoting a certain idea of stability through a symbolic figure/fatherly head.

But in 1958 the constitution was changed and the president got more power. In 1962 the president became elected by the people and the consequence was a slow but continuous shift towards a more presidential system. Today France is a hybrid system: when the president benefits of a parliamentarian majority France is in fact a presidential system. But f a president loses that majority, the new Prime minister from the opposition becomes the real ruler of France. Still, this has been bothersome to the political class and in effort to acknowledge that presidential drift a first reform was voted where Presidential Term and Legislative Terms were given the same time period, five years. And going further, Sarkozy has offered to change further the constitution by giving the president two consecutive terms only.

Chavez failed to mention that about France. Imagine that! But then again Chavez consistently fails to mention such elements as strong institutions, rule of law and separation of powers, institutions that allow French people to sleep tight at night even if their president can be in theory still elected ad infinitum. In fact, even the great De Gaulle was forced out of office and he was certainly of another caliber than Chavez and had achieved quite more.

-The end-

Freedoms of information and expression get another beating in Venezuela

Today the freedoms of expression and of information suffered another major set back, directly from Chavez and from his lackeys.

A cadena from Totalitaria

There was a medium sized country that slowly moved towards a totalitarian regime. The move was step by step and the nice people of the country were either cajoled or coaxed into accepting their fate, as a much better fate than associating themselves with the countries of the Capitalitaria federation.

I though about writing such a short naive tale while I watched a few excerpts of the cadena that Chavez imposed on us today. It had been quite a while that we had not had a big cadena by Chavez himself. Rumors had that the legal problems as to whether RCTV international had to pass cadenas or not sowed the doubt and delayed cadenas. But today we got a full frontal offensive against RCTV, and this cadena as a part of the offensive. The initial reply of RCTV was NOT to pass the cadena. Collision course ahead big time.

But first a reminder. A cadena is, for those that might have been living under a rock all of these years, or are brand new to Venezuela (is that possible still?) , the SIMULTANEOUS FORCED BROADCAST ON ALL TV AND RADIO STATIONS OF WHATEVER THE GOVERNMENT WANTS US TO WATCH. Our only option to escape that abuse is to turn off the TV or subscribe to cable TV.

Tonight cadena was a particularity abusive one. For I do not know how many hours, Chavez celebrated the Moncada assault in Cuba of half a century ago, he cheered Castro and presented himself as his heir. Then he moved on to attack the opposition, ridiculing it, in an offensive tone. Then (or before?) he defended what is already known about the constitutional changes he is about to propose. Of course, the opposition to all of these projects, or those who think that Castro is a criminal will never get 10 minutes to refute Chavez points in a simultaneous broadcast in all of the state TV. For that matter, they will probably not get it either on Venevision and Televen. They will have to rely only on Globovision and RCTV Internacional. No opponent of Chavez life long presidency, I will bet on that, will have significant exposure elsewhere in Venezuela

Unfortunately for those who pretend that Chavez is just managing the air waves in an orderly fashion in Venezuela, the scope of Chavez crime against Human Rights today will be quite a slap . Well, they will keep repeating their worn out line anyway, after all what they are doing is trying to justify the unjustifiable which is the privatization of all the airwaves to a single man's interests, those of Hugo Chavez.

No matter what Chavez supporters will say, today Chavez gave us his first salve in the campaign toward his life long presidency, and with the unfairness that we saw today we can be pretty assured of a nasty campaign and an electoral fraud. When people start a "democratic" campaign by abusing blatantly their power, elections are not to be trusted.


RCTV internacional and the cable/satellite TV system under threat

This morning the lackeys of Chavez in charge of communications, tried to strike again against RCTV. The objective is of course to close it once and for all, as even the meager 25% of the country that could get RCTV at home through cable is already unbearable for El Supremo. Let's not forget that this is a personal vendetta, of the caliber of any vendetta held by any cheap caudillo in LatAm history.

Jesse Chacon and CONATEL came on to say that the cable systems should provide some paperwork from RCTV internacional, otherwise in 5 days they should take it off the air. Apparently RCTV should register as a national producer of content and thus be subjected to all local laws. RCTV says that no, they were forced on cable and they are coming back as a different company, RCTV internacional, and thus need not to follow the law of Venezuelan only media. they should be subjected to the same law that directs Telesur, exempt of cadenas.

The solution for the government to bring RCTV to transmit cadenas is simply to allow them to have one open air channel at least. If RCTV is serious in its claims it would get that channel, say a UHF frequency in Caracas, and force itself to transmit as any other Venezuelan media. But the government is not offering that because what the government wants off all media business. Period. So chavismo is looking for is any legal loophole or misinterpretation (which court will rule in favor of RCTV against Chavez? where in Venezuela?) to close RCTV.

But no, not only the government does not want to give a single UHF to RCTV or Globovision (or anyone who they suspect might not cheer Chavez as needed) , but through its creep of a minister Lara is trying to find a legal way to force HBO to pass Chavez cadenas. That is, people that pay good money to watch pay TV will still be forced to watch Chavez cadenas and state propaganda. Now, let's think about that for a second, let's see where is the freedom of information there? Let's wonder about your right to spend your money as you please and enjoy the leisure you want? When Discovery Kids or Animal Planet or the Italian RAI will be forced to transmit at least in Venezuela any of Chavez vulgarities, where will freedom of expression be? When until even this blog is forced to pass Chavez propaganda? Or closed altogether as internet in turn will be controlled? How long are people going to accept that Chavez creeps more and more into our daily lives, our homes?

So there we are in Venezuela, a government trying to find ways to force everyone in Venezuela to watch Chavez speeches, whenever he feels like giving them. Already if you go to most public administration offices, if the waiting room has a TV is it hooked on VTV. Sometimes mercilessly to an office video/DVD that extols non stop the virtues of the revolution, such as I was subjected to when I went to pay my taxes a couple of months ago.

If the proposal of Lara gets the nod, then we might see the BBC broadcast of some important world event suddenly suspended in Venezuela because Chavez has decided to make a cadena where he will insult people, talk about his childhood souvenirs, speak about projects that will never be done, not even started. And then we will have wait for hours until we can know what happened in such an such place. Where is the freedom of information when foreign channels refuse to be cut by cadenas and leave the country? And where is the freedom of expression when all opponent TV are finally closed under the flimsiest of excuses?

Because in Chavez megalomania, and the sycophants it inspires, in Venezuela now the verbal farts of Chavez are more important than anything else that can happen anywhere in the world.


-The end-

High gear again for Chavez

After his electoral "victory” of December 2006 Chavez started speeding up the radicalization of his pseudo revolution. Thus a new constitution format was announced, 5 socialist motors would be running to speed up changes, weapons galore would be bought to arm the revolution and RCTV would be closed so everyone would feel good about the changes.

Unfortunately reality, long repressed by the financial electoral narcotic slumber of 2006, came back with a vengeance. Food started missing from the shelves. People did not like their novelas taken away. The whole world seemed to dislike the idea of closing a major network just because Chavez said so. Thus we saw a strange backpedaling; Chavez even said that the constitutional change was not urgent and could wait for 2008.

And suddenly, zasss, the constitutional changes are back in the front burner, with an extraordinary energy as the National Assembly chair is even talking of a ratification referendum in December. What happened? Two factors: the internal situation evolution implies that the longer Chavez waits for the constitutional change the more difficult it will be to get ratification; and the planned changes will make Chavez a life term dictatorlet. This last one gives the window to pass such changes with complaisant ignorance from foreign players a short term opening.

The troubles at home

The situation at home is fast reaching a critical point.

Devaluation cannot be postponed for long. The street rate is now TWICE the official rate and climbing. Chavez seems very intend to keep the exchange rate as it is, so in January when the new currency hits the streets (1) he will be allowed to claim the hollow victory that the “Bolivar fuerte” is better than the Bolivar of the 70ies when it was at 4,30 per USD. Any devaluation before that time will unleash an inflationary wave, above the current 20%, and that will not be popular at all.

Food shortages are not going to improve much. If certain rather high tech sectors such as chicken or pig farming will be able to keep growth as long as the government allows for grain import (those becoming more expensive everyday), other sectors will not recover for a foreseeable future, such as cattle and dairy. There is no indication that current agricultural policies will allow for the required increase in sugar and corn production. And corn production is crucial for “arepa”, chicken and pork production.

After the recession of 2003, the industrial park is somewhat recovered but it is not expanding. Let’s remember that the Venezuela important growth rate of the last three years is the reflection of a commercial expansion enabled by high oil prices, not a production expansion. There is no significant investment, at least not the type of private investment required, and thus when you combine that with the industries that went down in 2003 and never reopened, it seems that material goods production will not be able to supply the increasing demand. More pressure on inflation.

Paradoxically many social programs such as Mision Vuelvan Caras are depressing the work market and making hiring of personnel more difficult for the few industries that are working at full capacity. Such Misiones allow too many people to cash a small stipend without providing any significant economical activity. They are in fact a very ill conceived jobless program. If to this you combine the prohibition of economical layoff and new and expensive and time consuming regulations of the work place, there is a definite reluctance in the small and medium sized business to expand the work force, a work force increasingly expensive to maintain, and thus increased costs feeding inflation. Historically it is the small enterprise which are the largest creators of jobs and this is not happening, by far, at the scale the country requires. For all the government talk, the national cooperative system is failing consistently to provide the economical relief sought.

All of these factors will keep increasing the inflationary pressure in Venezuela with all the consequences that such a situation eventually carries for a country: a recession in the near future with an inflation rate well above 20%. If to this you add the prospect of a temporary oil production drop, all but directly admitted last week by some of PDVSA executives, the recession could hit any time in 2008 if some corrective measures are not taken right now. These measures will start by control of public spending, a no-no in an electoral year if Chavez wants to ratify the constitutional changes by December. The vicious electoral circle is thus well established.

The troubles abroad

There has been always the rush to assume the mantle of Castro before this one dies. To this you can add now the badly deteriorated image of Chavez as a consequence of the closing of RCTV.

A mild anti Chavez feeling among Europe ruling class and elite caused by a rather strong anti Castro feeling has not been improved at all when RCTV was closed. However Europe right now is mired again into a treaty renegotiation, is concerned about Iran and what not. But that will last only so long; a deterioration sped up whenever Chavez hugs Ahmadinejerk.

With the US things are pretty much done when all major contenders for the 2008 elections have expressed anti Chavez sentiments. But the US is now mired in the presidential campaign on top of an ever more difficult Iraq situation. Not to mention the worries over Iran.

The constitutional reforms that Chavez wants to introduce are a life long presidency, the end to decentralization, the creation of a strong personal and centralized administration, the end of any investment guarantees, including for those investments that already exist in Venezuela. Even worse, in the new economical system that Chavez proposes, any opposition movement could never establish the democratic bases to challenge Chavez and will be forced into some form of violent response with the irresponsibly magnified repression that usually follows in such systems. In other words, all of this is anathema to established democratic practices where the opposition should have fair access to political tools.

To this we can add the troubles in the neighboring countries. The tension with Colombia is everyday more and ore difficult to hide, even more when at the border the Colombian Peso is now the currency of choice. The Mercosur alliance is now questioned by Chavez himself, and the all but certain arrival of Cristina Kirchner at the Casa Rosada is no guarantee of an unconditional Argentinean support. She will be much less dependent on Chavez generosity than her husband was, and she is a supporter of Jewish communities and definitely not a friend of Iran, now Chavez main ally after Cuba. Lula himself is running into some problems and might soon find that it does not pay off to keep supporting Chavez as he does. An increasingly unstable Ecuador and Bolivia could radicalize the nascent anti Chavez opposition in Peru and Chile and even Uruguay and Paraguay.

Of course, none of these countries is going to send a single soldier to unseat Chavez, but his dreams of international stardom will be curtailed fast if he postpones his constitutional reforms further, as he still benefits of a democratic label as the implications of the RCTV closing are not fully felt outside of Venezuela. Right now the world is very distracted and Chavez antics might not matter much, but a fresh US president, for example, or a new Middle East new crisis could isolate a newly autocratic Chavez.

The timetable

Thus Chavez has redone his math quickly.

Right now, he can still pull out a reasonably acceptable referendum to validate the changes he wants to make to the constitution (2). But the longer he waits, the more difficult this will be. If in December the people approve a non democratic constitution then the world will have to grudgingly accept that Venezuela democracy committed suicide. It is Venezuela’s right after all. But if in 2008 the ratification follows a strong street movement, and a likely rigged vote, then Chavez will be a pariah just as Mugabe is. This is something that Chavez tries desperately to avoid even if in the mind of many foreign leaders he is already such a pariah.

This also applies at home. Many people still think that there was nothing wrong with the Recall Election of 2004, but the RCTV closing has done terrible damage to Chavez image. Not the direct damage, mind you, Chavez is still loved by too many. But among many of his followers the seed of doubt has been planted. The more Chavez let’s the debate on the constitution drag on, the more that small chinck on his Teflon coat will start to expand and become a fault line. Add to this all the other domestic problems brewing and their effect felt more and more by the hoi polloi, and you can guess that suddenly time is running short.

So Chavez has decided, apparently, to gamble on the vacation period of Venezuelans. That is, dissident students supposedly will be off the streets, opposition leaders in vacation in Miami, or in Margarita resorts and the National Assembly will not need to put up the pretense of open debate with the people as no one will show up to any debate they might call. If it works, then the opposition AGAIN, will not have time to organize a reasonable challenge in just the two months of October and November, which late start was also one of the major handicaps of the Rosales campaign in 2006 (3).

Will that work? The country is very different in July 2007 than it was in July 2006. There is a new sense of urgency that could trump all the plans of Chavez, starting by many people inside his base that this time will not follow that adventure. For example, a strong anti constitutional change challenge in Aragua state by Governor Didalco Bolivar could even yield a narrow No vote for the changes! Chavez needs a victory margin for the Yes at least as large as his vote of December 2006. But right now this cannot be achieved without electoral fraud. In fact, a Yes vote is even questionable in December, much more in 2008. Thus for the time being it seems that Chavez is trying a honest victory in December, and you should not be surprised that the initial radical proposal about to be unveiled might be greatly watered down by the December vote. After all, the only thing that Chavez really, really needs, is unlimited reelection. If he gets that, all the other non democratic changes can be postponed and gained in due time. This, in the end might be the real strategy of Chavez, settle for the unlimited reelection but get it in an acceptable vote.

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PS: this post comes with no link at all. There would be so many that it would become almost unreadable if all appropriate details were added. I thought about doing it as a multi part post but time is short these days so I settle for this very long "summary". At any rate, many of today items have already been reported in preceding posts such as this one or this one. And perusing El Universal web page is enough to verify 90% of the information noted here, even from the skimpy English section.

--- --- --- --- --- ---

1) Three zeros will be loped off from the actual VEB. That is, 1,000 VED of today will become 1 “Bolivar fuerte”.

2) The constitutional changes will be the subject of another post. Stay tuned.

3) What the opposition can do will be the topic of yet another post.


-The end-

Reminder on commenting section rules

The little incident with a reader two posts ago made me think that perhaps it was time to refresh the rules section of this blog. Also, looking at Quico's blog where there are comment rules on his haloscan feature made me look into it and try it. Thus I put this same picture below on top of my haloscan section, and after this picture I will give some details as to what this means.




The picture did not come out to great but I will work on it later. Meanwhile the reasons behind the rules.

Comment rules by order of importance: My subjective order of course. Or as they say, my blog, my rules.

1) No personal attacks, ever. That makes me see red. Not that on occasion someone does deserve a rather strong comment, but usually there must be a solid story behind.

2) Do not carry your grudges from other blogs to this one, ever. The green is a little bit the green of envy, of jealousy, the green that some people experience when their prey escaped them from another comment section and they track their nemesis to the pages of this blog. For some reason this irks me enormously. Whatever fight happened in, say, Miguel's blog, has nothing to do with the threads of this blog. That does not mean you cannot refer to such instance and comments such as "please, fulanito, do not start again on that" can be acceptable, on rare occasions. But details on "that" are never welcome.

3) No trolling. Obvious, no? Though sometimes a little bit of very light trolling can start a conversation. I will be the sole judge so you use that technique at your own risk.

4) Inasmuch as possible stay on topic. Yes, I know, there might be breaking news and what not. But in general I try to write focused and complete post and I like to discuss them and bring more information from the readers who might post. So yes, we can stray, but not too often.

5) As a general rule, if with three comments you have not been able to make your case in a given thread, you will probably not be able to make it with further entries. That is, keep it sweet, short and simple, there will be other threads. Well, this is what in general has tended to sink other comment sections into useless and boring infighting, and usually because the rules above were ignored. Another way this could be written is "do not feed the trolls" but that does not cover it all. The real aim here is that I prefer a thread with only 10 interesting comments than one with 100 comments where only there people participate. It is boring, I must approve all of them and I have no time for it. A great blog is never defined by how many comments appear at the end of its posts. Actually, some of the best blogs around do not even have a comment section!

But I am putting this rule on 5th only now because a long moderation of this blog has in fact created a certain pleasant climate and it is rare that people violate that rule. The only one that does it seems to be me but then again as the host I feel the need to reply to as many people time allows me.

6) Do not make any assumptions about people unless you are prepared to sustain them. This is a new rule. I do not know whether it is the current political climate or what, but I have noticed a tendency for people to assume all sorts of things about the other visitors. Remember, this is Internet and people can be whatever they want. Take them at face value and only discuss their ideas. Otherwise you will quickly end up breaking rule number 1!!!

Final comment.

Last December I wrote something to the effect that this blog would from now on not be welcoming very much of PSF and other assorted chavistas. I think I should once again restate why.

After 8 years of Chavez rule, very few people at this point are going to change their mind in the anti Chavez camp. We have seen the man, we have taken his measure, and for those who live in Venezuela like this blogger, there is very little that a PSF can bring to the discussion. We do not like Chavez, we do not like his militarization of the country, we do not like his intolerance and there is absolutely no evidence that these three things are improving in the least bit. And no amount of social programs, assuming they are successful, can compensate for the the three items just listed.

That does not mean that pro Chavez folks cannot come and post, it means that they should chose better what to write about. For example:

* saying that Chavez was right to close RCTV because media should not be private hands is a troll. It is a troll because Chavez has privatized the public media of Venezuela to his name, and they know that very well and agree with it. It is the hypocrisy of such a statement that is not welcome anymore here as we have no more time for that B.S.

* on the other hand saying that you think a specific social policy is good and explaining why is perfectly OK (though I have yet to see that happen in here or any opposition blog I have ever visited). After all we might have missed some worthwhile initiatives and we might gain in knowing about them even if there is no way that a given social program will change our mind on Chavez. Still, after 8 years in office, chavismo is bound to have learned to do a few things right, no?

In other words, for any chavista that might have reached this far into this post: you have everything, all the TV, all the cadenas, and more and more. In here we want peace and quiet, a safe place where we can trash chavismo among us. We do not need additional grief from you, and as the host I take very seriously the role of keeping this comment section welcoming for anti Chavez folks. If you do not like it I will remind you that there are plenty of other blogs where you can go and slug it out, but not here. Here you respect our anti Chavez position or move on.

-The end-

Ripley's believe or not bad currencies

This short post courtesy of reader M.G.

Foreign Policy has a cute little article about the countries with the worst 5 currencies in the world today.

You have, for obvious reasons North Korea, with the quaint note that "The minor role played by money in the North Korean economy mitigates the effects of hyperinflation to some extent". Thanks for juche!

You have for even more obvious reason Somalia: "traders make up the rules and prices as they go along, and counterfeiting is rampant". What? They do also have buhoneros in Somalia and the locals make their own money?

Iraq I need not to comment on so we can move to the next one.

Zimbabwe where the editor added a proof reading note: "Editor's note: Zimbabwe's unofficial exchange rate is even higher than we originally thought, and it's changing by the minute"

And finally, yes, you guessed it, VENEZUELA!!!! Since it is a holiday and I am feeling kind of lazy I will lift up the whole paragraph on Venezuela. You will notice, if you are a long time reader of this blog (and Miguel or Quico) that there is nothing in it that you already did not know about the Venezuelan Bolivar, VEB.

With massive public spending fueling inflation and President Hugo Chávez’s nationalization campaign triggering a massive outflow of capital, it’s been a bad year for the bolívar. Thanks mainly to the high price of oil, many of Venezuela’s economic fundamentals look sound. But Venezuela’s currency has lost 21 percent of its value since January 2007, the worst performance of all 72 currencies tracked by Bloomberg News. Seeking to staunch the bleeding, Chávez has announced a bizarre series of measures, including imprisonment for those who violate price caps, removing three zeroes from the bolívar and renaming it the “strong bolívar” and—most bizarre of all—the reintroduction of 12.5-cent coin that Chávez promises will help whip inflation. When introducing the coin in March, he boasted, “We’re going to end monetary instability in Venezuela.”

-The end-

It is all about Chavez

One wonders how much of Chavez speeches are simple craziness or absurd provocation. As I was shutting up for the day I decided to read today's news in El Universal updates. I was not disappointed by the return on the air of Alo Presidente: Chavez came back with a vengeance. Obviously repressing his big mouth for a few weeks during the Copa games was too much to endure. Poor guy! How many Valiums must have he swallowed!? In a way it is a nice complement to the long article on his censorship plans I just posted so I will write a quick summary. In no particular order.

Reelection only for Chavez. So it is official, Chavez has said that in the constitutional electoral reform is only for the president.

The president is the only guy who can get reelected in vita aeternam. Mayors and governors can forget it, can forget about becoming some local potentates. The only potentate in Venezuela is the president who is of course Chavez. Some reform! Now, I knew he was a megalomaniac but I never thought he would be so blunt about it. Stupefying!

Foreigners cannot criticize Venezuela/Chavez anymore. any foreigner that comes to Venezuela to criticize Chavez should be deported, replied to, shut up, whatever. But of course Chavez can keep going to New York or La Plata to insult Bush. Or he can insult the Brazilian or Chilean senates from Caracas. That is OK, he is Chavez. Megalomania maximus!

Caracas will become again a Federal district subjected to the presidency. In the so called reform it is normal that Caracas loses again its autonomy. And to add to the craziness he complained that Chacao did not look good, that it was not the same as in the time of Irene Saez! One wonders if the recent strike of the garbage collectors of Chacao was not a plan to allow Chavez to say that!!! I cannot wait for Chacao to get a chavista gauleiter and see the buhoneros invade the sidewalks. Then it would look good, like the rest of garbagy Caracas under chavista administration. Chacao is about to experience the reverse Midas touch of chavismo: all that it manages turns to crap.

Ideology, ideology and more ideology. So it is confirmed, more ideology everywhere, at school, in barracks, etc... Patria, socialismo o muerte everywhere. Our chance to revive Germany circa 1936. Or is it the Malecon of Havana with Castro? Sometimes I get confused....


-The end-

The control remote wars as the road to censorship in Venezuela

Over the past few months we have been told constantly that the closing of RCTV had nothing to do with censorship, that it was just a "non renewal" of a license because, you know, there was the need to create a different media system, not beholden to any disgusting commercial interest.

Well, this week we were brutally reminded that all is just a charade and that the only objective of the government all along was to force people to subject themselves to the incessant pro Chavez propaganda, preferably when the great and beloved leader directs himself the shows.

But to understand what started developing this week, it might useful to go back in time and see how all started, how it all steadily progressed and how today the remote control of your pay TV has become the most dangerous subversion weapon.

The Beginnings: the cadena policies

When Chavez reached office on February 2, 1999, he only had at his disposition the state TV network to promote his propaganda. Until then he had been helped by a complaisant press and media. By the time the Constituent Assembly was elected its opinion was rather unfavorable to Chavez. The reason? The divisive discourse of Chavez already at work.

Very early in his term chavismo tried all sort of "information" outlets, such as the miserably failed newspapers Barreto's Correo del Presidente. Soon the only viable solution was to turn VTV, the state channel, into a pro Chavez propaganda vessel. Today, in a strange way, we look at 1999 as a year where VTV could still be watched, where opponents could still visit and speak their mind on occasion. That is, compared to today where VTV is a 24/24 outlet to defend chavismo and attacks anything not in agreement with chavismo.

But very soon, better than any propaganda outlet, Chavez found the perfect weapon to fight back the perceived media crusade against his positions: the cadena. For memory, it is the forced simultaneous broadcast of any of Chavez speech whenever he feels like it, for as long as he wants it, over ALL radio and ALL TV of the country. Soon cadenas were the dreadful tools that Chavez used as frequently as needed, as a reply to any talk show on TV that displeased him.

Cadenas worked, and still work to some extent, as they were justly perceived by Chavez followers as a retaliation against all the representatives of the "ancien regime" which is perceived, rightly or unjustly, to reside inside the press and media of Venezuela. As such cadenas are the clear indication of the political line to follow. I think that all the way through 2001 I could walk in the streets of San Felipe and when a cadena came I could see people stopping their errands and stay stuck in front of any TV they could find to watch the presidents words. I suppose from a long tradition of cadenas used by past presidents to address the nation in time of urgency or drama, the Venezuelan folk retained that attitude of wanting to watch cadenas to get "important" information. I am pleased to announce that today that reflex is no more, that a TV showing a Chavez cadena is simply either turned off, or switched to some music channel on cable if the store subscribes.

The Escalation: the media empire

I suppose that sometime in 2001 chavismo realized that cadenas alone would not do it. Also the success of the Alo Presidente format made chavismo realize that its very best exponent was Chavez himself. Thus the need to promote his media presence in more ways than just cadenas which soon enough started showing their limitations. That is how Alo Presidente went from being a radio talk show in 1999 to a full fledged very expensive TV production to promote Chavez message at tax payer expense of course, as its official state web page shows.

The year 2002 was a watershed in more ways than one. Since the media participated so actively in the protest against Chavez, this one decided to counter attack. The first approach was the establishment of a media empire at the service of Chavez. In this respect Chavez has outmatched any media baron that ever existed: at taxpayer expense he has created a personal broadcasting system dedicated at promoting his image and his ideas as much at home as abroad.

New TV stations were created for internal consumption such as ViVe and ANTV. Private radios systems were bought by pro Chavez interest and the only Radio with full national coverage became RNV which went from a classical cultural outlet to a propaganda system. For his promotion overseas Chavez had Telesur established, a Latin American CNN wanna-be.

On the left you can see an ad published this week end announcing the return of Alo Presidente after the Copa America hiatus. I have circled in green all the networks that are transmitting the show, 5 TV and 3 radio systems. Plus all sorts of "community" radio station and TV. The communication empire of Chavez is so big and so obvious that the regime actually takes great pride in advertising it.

But that was not enough: once the 2004 scare of the recall Election passed, a new legal system was installed. This was done in two parts. The first one was the modification of the penal code which simplified ways in which people could sue for opinions emitted against them, favoring a certain self censorship of the press. The other more successful initiative was the famous RESORTE law which limited effectively the amount of political talk shows, limited their scape as some type of material could only be shown after hours, and best, forced all media to transmit for free 10 minutes a day of "institutional" messages. These messages are quite often barely disguised propaganda.

One thing should not be forgotten: aggressions against journalists from the private media were also on the rise during these years, although lower these days. This was also a way the government tried to force more favorable reports on its polices. It did not help much, of course, but it opened a Pandora box of violence as now Chavez supporters feel free to object to the presence of any media they do not like. The IACHR has a complete report on the aggressions toward journalists and some of the legal apparatus established to induce self censorship of the press.

At any rate, these set of measures had a favorable effect for chavismo: two of the nationwide broadcaster, Venevision and Televen decided to go "neutral" when not indirectly supporting the regime. By the time the presidential election of 2006 came, only RCTV and Globovision were left to give fair coverage to the Rosales campaign. European Union electoral observer report (PDF format), for example, mentions the pro Chavez bias of a majority of TV networks in Venezuela including Venevision almost as supportive as VTV! The figure below (click to enlarge) shows this astounding finding of the European Union, on how successfully Venevision has been tame and coopted.


The final solution: taking away the remote control

But the success of Chavez in 2006 was not enough for him, even if he won by an alleged landslide against the vigorous opposition of RCTV. A few days after his victory Chavez announced that the license of RCTV would not be renewed, even as there were questions as to when that license did indeed expire (1). The fact of the matter is that Chavez did not care about expiration dates, it was a political revenge and sure enough on May 27 RCTV went off the air, leaving Globovision alone as the only media where the opposition political figures could regularly speak, and where news about the "real" Venezuela could be shown.

Soon this turned out to be an empty victory for Chavez. Besides badly damaging his image at home and overseas, it did not tame at all the remaining free press or Globovison who bravely decided to pick up where RCTV had left, even if its coverage is barely 50% of the country. Chavismo cannot have failed to notice that the number of cable TV subscribers have gone up by 14% this first semester of 2007 when compared to the first semester of 2006. This increase in subscribers is due to people deciding to make the economical sacrifice to get cable as their only option from free broadcast is generally pro Chavez.

If we do a quick math: about 22% of homes now receive some form of pay TV and if this is increasing by 20% a year, within barely three years a third of the country will escape from any pro Chavez message if it wishes. And it only can keep growing as in poorer areas many people might pool resources to start watching the Discovery System rather than TVes. As the number of customers grow, cable systems might even start lowering costs and get even more subscribers. It is not impossible that by the next presidential election 50% of the population has access to cable and in front of such a market new viable sources of information could be created that would devote themselves to counter Chavez without this one being able to respond or force his cadenas upon.

RCTV managed one month an a half later to come back on Cable and Satellite as RCTV International. However there was a difference now: RCTV was a cable only network and now was, theoretically, not subjected to the RESORTE law rules, such as passing the national anthem at given hours, or those 10 minute propaganda every day, or even the cadena. The law is obscure on that since Telesur, although emitting from Venezuela but to all of South America, does not pass cadenas. The fight has already started with two ministers saying that RCTV should be subjected to the same rules as the others. RCTV says no, that it should be subjected to the same rules as Telesur as it is now a new channel from Miami and as its contents will increasingly be modified to satisfy an international market.

There is no need to scrutinize the legal aspects of it, it is enough to see at which speed the government reacted in front of the possibility that RCTV could skip cadenas. As soon as people realize that they can watch real Venezuelan events while Chavez tries to cover up a situation as he did in April 11 2002 when he started a cadena to make sure TV could not cover the massacre of the march against him, people will flock to cable systems.

Thus the new proposal of the government: to force cable systems to abide by the RESORTE law. That is, National Geographic channel, or the BBC of London will have to pass the national anthem at the hours stipulated by the government, plus the 10 minutes a day of propaganda, and perhaps at some point even the cadenas. Needless to say that this will be impossible because of the international contracts and rules that regulate copyrights of these networks. It will either force cable systems to close, or limit the available selection as the BBC, National Geographic, the Discovery network and other movie channels will simply prefer not to sell their programming to Venezuela. The only folks that will be able to avoid official propaganda will be those lucky enough to afford Direct TV on paid codifier from Puerto Rico or Colombia. Until the government decides that satellite dishes are illegal and thus we will be like in such Islamic countries where dishes must be hidden from view from outside least some censor sees them. (2)

Will we reach such a level of censorship? Frankly, yes, it is a matter of time, it is in the nature of the system and we have seen how increasingly chavismo has been sending its tentacles to take control of that remote control in your home, to make it useless as any button you press will bring you to an irrelevant channel, or a propaganda media.

Reality

The real issue there is simply that chavismo and Chavez cannot tolerate anymore that a remote control can trump their message. Chavismo cannot deal with the fact that when TV ratings are made they always put at the bottom the Chavez media. Together VTV, ViVe et al. never reach a combined total of 20%, if that much. That is, not even all of the faithful chavista core that this blogger always has given as a 30%.

All the money, time and resources to create a "state media system" has been in vain: with more TV networks than many a ruler or press magnate in the world, chavismo is unable to create a newspaper that people are willing to pay money for it, or a TV programming that people enjoy watching on a regular basis. It is paradoxical that the two only "hit" shows of chavismo are Alo Presidente and La Hojilla. Curiously those are the only shows that many in the opposition also watch as many do like to know what the future has in store for them.

So there is chavismo, bitter and resentful that no one wants to play with them. And thus, when everything failed, chavismo can only think of taking the remote control away. Do not forget that in Orwell¡s 1984, the higher up in the party had access to more news than the hero. Just as in Cuba Castro has some satellite system to watch any show in the world he wants but Cubans must satisfy themselves with Gramma as owning a TV is probably not worth since there is nothing to watch on Cubavision or Telerebelde.

1) El Universal carries in English an RCTV dossier with many translated articles.

2) The pretense of locking all TV signals reaching Venezuela is already seen as a Human Rights violation and already Reporters Without Borders has issued a statement on this respect. More is to come for sure if the government persists in this crazy idea.

-The end-

Chavisteria of the day: Barreto promotes Cuba

Newspapers have been carrying this week end this lovely advertisement from Caracas mayor at large office (click to enlarge).



In this ad Barreto glorifies the inauguration of a rather small looking facility. I have seen bigger works inaugurated by Chavez that did not deserve a half page in El Universal....

However the ad has everything, two images of Barreto, one a montage with Chavez on the top right, where they are pointing to the future I suppose. It also has the words "comrade Chavez". and a few tired slogans. It even has, one wonders why, the logo of the Copa and the logo of Barreto own pet TV, Avila TV, where he plays at having his own TV just as Chavez has a half a dozen at his service. It is almost quaint.....

But that is not the most offensive thing. The Cuban flag floats over the facility and even hides the Venezuelan flag. Provocation? Deep brain washing of the town hall PR personnel? Plain incompetence? Extreme sycophancy? True, there are surely a few Cuban medics in it but the bill is footed 100% by Venezuelan monies....

Obviously there is a psychological pattern to Barreto's behavior...


-The end-

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Back in the early or even, mid days of the revolution (that means till December of 2006; because after those elections everything became more extreme, worse than before), the demonstrations were planned with enough anticipation so the people could even bookmark that day in their agendas.The event was public announced on mass media and you could see a map of the route that the demonstration was suppose to take, carefully detailed on the late night news report of any open broadcasted TV network.
There were, of course, some restrictions as an early sign of authoritarian moves such as the security zones decree (that I have talked about on previous stories) which consists on declare certain areas as “security zones” that include streets around military installations and government buildings. Caracas, as the capital of Venezuela it has a lot of government offices and also (this bothers me a little but that’s material for another story) at least a couple of important military installations so as a result; any important building, any place where people needed to be heard was declared a security zone, and therefore, any protest on those areas is illegal and strictly prohibited (well, as we have notice, strictly prohibited for the people against the government only).

But now, the security zones decree sounds like a meanless thing if you compare it the rest of the restrictions we have to deal with. Those restrictions have grown in a matter of months. I don’t think many people are consciously aware of this terrible change.
Today, despiting the public announces of the previous years about demonstrations, you can only have the luck to be informed of an upcoming demonstration if you know someone who has also information about it and that person knows another who knows and so it goes, via text messages; the night before or even a few hours before the event. No mass media news revealing the plans, no one informing you of the route that you are not quite aware of until maybe the very same day and the very same moment that the demonstration is starting.
Those text messages flying from one cell phone to another are not only the substitute of mass media since RCTV (the oldest Venezuelan TV network) was closed by the government and Globovision (only opposition channel that remains) it’s constantly under the “revolutionary” menace eyes. Publishing our upcoming plans even if we had the media to do it's now very inconvenient.
Some demonstrations are legal, and some others (on governments opinion, of course) are not or at least, “not totally legal” (only at some streets for example). And even the legal ones, the totally legal ones are received at the end by an extremely big contingent of policemen and/ or some military (National Guard, Military Police…).
Before feeling a non justify fear, I always quickly check all that “army” that is waiting for us: their shields, the weapons that I can see sometime (shouldn’t this be illegal?), the tanks, or the trucks for spreading water called “whales” and you can’t forget the cages (“jaulas”, trucks for taking the detained people).
I must make a parenthesis here and say that I never saw those cages or maybe never notice them before, until the several protest about the RCTV closure at the end of May; another change on the demonstration dynamics of my country.
Anyway, the arsenal I mentioned varies on the case and sometimes all that is combined with a group of Chavez supporters wearing red t-shirts and yelling for say the least; physically separated from us by a police line. Or also, another group of Chavez supporters giving circles around the demonstration in their motorcycles.
Yet, most of that doesn’t scare me at all and I don’t think it scares anyone by now. They are actually, only a few moments (three for being exact) that can happen (or not) at the end of a demonstration and if they do happen, the tense peace is broken. Of those three, one doesn’t even requires to break the peace because its part of the army. Anyway, I will detail one by one the moments or things I’m afraid of when I get to where a demonstration ends:

1) WHEN THE POLICE OR THE GUARDS PUT ON THEIR BIG ANTI GAS MASKS

When this happens, it always takes me out of nowhere, by surprise. I’m sitting with a few friends, talking, even a little bit bored or feeling dizzy because of the unbearable noon heat and boom: those guys a few seconds ago just standing there like statues move and puts on their masks.

They look like horrible robots, my heart beats fast because I know what’s coming. I hate when they, just after put on their masks, start marching with their big shields against the people protesting. The next might sound funny, but at least the reader can understand now the odd title that I choose for this story: I always comment with my mom that for me, when they do that, they look like a bunch of black Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles moving against you.

2) WHEN I HEAR AN EXPLOSION OR A FEW ONES

With the adrenaline of the moment and some experience, of course; you might know what that explosion mean: a tear gas bomb shouted (tear gas bombs don’t produce a sound by themselves, only if they are shouted) or pellets or gunshots… The scariest thing about it is not the explosion itself, but the fact that you don’t know where that explosion comes from. Is it from…the police line? But suddenly those guys are just everywhere! Or does it come from the Chavez supporters group? Or from someone who passed by in a motorcycle? What if they come from a building? I think I could feel less fear on those moments If I knew the answer to the “Who is shooting and from where?” question because then I could know where to hide, where to run and from who I should run of first. But you always play with luck in those cases instead.

3) THE PRESENCE OF THE “JAULAS” (CAGES)

I warned that in those three moments one wasn’t exactly a moment but part of the army. Before the RCTV closure I was not used to see those cages and maybe I’m not get used to them, but I do hate to see those because in case you are detained and taken to those cages; the uncertainly level compared with the previous couple of moments about possible risk or consequences its just over the top.
If the policemen suddenly put on their masks you know that some tear gas is coming. You have to run a little, maybe, if you can’t stand the gas or just smell a handkerchief filled with vinegar and (or) spread some toothpaste under your eyes and nose, and you are done. That’s easy.
In the case of an explosion you are quite aware of even the worse scenario, you know the possible injuries of a bomb, a pellet cartridge can cause; even death. Yes, that is desperately tragic but what I’m trying to say here is that in those cases, at least, you know.
But, what if a policeman decides to detain you in the middle of a demonstration and take you to one of those cages? What do you could possible know about your destiny then? People might argue that probably after they detained you they are going to take you somewhere to start a process. The thing is: Where? For how long?, And under what conditions? Are they going to let you speak to an attorney and /or your family? Under what charges they are going to justify your detention?
In a constitutional and democratic republic I should certainly have the answer to all those questions since they respond to basic civil rights. They should be simply obvious.
A few days ago a couple of brothers, also students, were giving some pamphlets with Bolivar phrases to the people outside a football stadium (yes, the famous Copa America). They were detained, for being released afterwards and forced to present to the court every single week under very weird charges. The charges usually are “sabotage”, “betrayal to the country”, “public disorder”…
The truth is (and one must tell things as they are without having the fear of being accused of extremism or over reacting) that there are no rights and no law in Venezuela. The only law that is carefully obey here comes from the mood Chavez wakes up one morning.
Since I don’t know how Chavez and his combo is going to wake up tomorrow; the future its pathetically uncertain for me and that’s what its truly killing some of us inside. Is not all the madness that has happen already but the things that could eventually happen. And there is only one thing for sure about this issue: whatever might happen in the future doesn’t look good at all; even more, it looks worse than the current situation.
A foreigner asked me once just like that: “How do you feel about Hugo Chavez?” and I answered: “How would you feel if someone comes and takes you away everything you once loved or hoped for?” – “Bad, I guess” – He said – “Well, that’s how”.
What matters is not that he is messing up the country because it was starting to mess up like ten years before Chavez. Is that he is messing up the possibilities as well: means our hopes of some day being able improve the current state of things.
No, you have to agree with him and even more, work on his own way even if you know the disadvantage and the damage that way can cause (therefore, this phenomenon can be even more dramatic among educated people). Chavez is the perfect example of the famous slang: “Ni lava ni presta la batea”. This means, “neither he wash, neither be borrows the tray to others” (or let others use it). Neither has he ruled well, neither he let others try.
Another foreigner asked me to make a post about my daily life here and the best I can do for describing it is to talk as I’m doing now, about uncertainly.
The black Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles I mentioned are not only waiting for you at the end of a demonstration, but you also feel that they seem to be waiting for you at the end of your life. There are black Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles walking against you on every single moment: when you go out and see an empty street and fear being mugged; when you study and hear about decrees against university autonomy coming; when someone from your family loses its job because it has fallen under the siege of the government.
Maybe the fear increases when you are going to a protest, but you go to a protest because you feel that fear all the time and you want to see the end of it someday. You know you are risking a lot. Most of the times you go to a protest and you come back home like nothing. The demonstration was almost like a fun carnival. But some other times is not fun at all and there is the possibility of not coming back home.
You don’t know what day the carnival will end and even so, it always seems to take you by surprise. You notice a terrible fear by just making the “what if” imagination exercise. A few minutes later you take a deep breath and just pack your things and go either to a protest, to your classes, a party or your job. Once you are there, you don’t think about it much, there is no turning back.
This general mood of the people, or at least most of the people I’m in touch with (I’m not using statistics for writing this entry) is very convenient for the government and probably that’s why the government is constantly making menaces that maybe are not going to be real until a few months or even years later.
Through these years, between reality and future possibilities I have certainly experienced a lot for choosing from the big amount of news about the upcoming news of the government; just some issues that might truly concern me or even nothing at all. Many things that concern the foreigners and that are the starting points of quite long discussion don’t make me even move off my seat (like the news about Chavez possible buying Russian submarines). And is not because I’m ignorant, naïve, or don’t worry about my country. It is called “getting used to” or maybe, “trying to survive in a sanity mood”. In a good way, you might also say I’m stronger, I can live around things that probably people outside Venezuela (on countries of better conditions, of course) can’t.
People usually say that what doesn’t kills you make you stronger. It’s probably a nice consolation prize for those who spend their lives in the unbearable wonder of “What if this does kills me?” I don’t want strength really. Possibly being stronger doesn’t make me proud at all. I would happily change anytime all my “strength” built as a product of many encounters with different black Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles in my life for some peace in return.

Educational brainwash in Venezuela

There are those exquisite moments where the dignitaries of the regime forget that the "ancien regime" democratic ways allowed them to become the fascists (or is that stalino-commie?) that they are today. For example this week we got the words of Adan Chavez, the evil brother of mini-me, keeping up his drive against private education; and Carlos Escarra telling us that the 37% who voted (official numbers, not a verifiable one) against Chavez had no business in discussing the constitutional overhaul.

Private education under siege

Every totalitarian regime has been hell bent in destroying any form of private education. The reason is very simple: nobody should be allowed to develop a dissenting perception of life, the only one being allowed is the one from the state. The obviousness of this forces me to stop from giving any further detail least I would insult the intelligence of readers of this blog.

In Venezuela the all out assault against private education has been delayed once and again because simply the government has been absolutely unable to reorganize the public system. Closing or intervening private educational system, in addition to its political costs, is simply something that the regime cannot financially undertake, at least as long as it has not shown that it can manage the public system. Even more so when doubts about the educational Misiones (Robinson, Ribas and Sucre) are starting to appear more and more as it is plain to see, for example, that illiteracy is far from eliminated in Venezuela. Or as Mision Sucre students wonder aloud whether their degree will get them a job, if they even get their degree.

But with all the changes that we have been threatened with the government is now forced to tighten the squeeze on private education, from your local infant garden to private universities. So, to start squeezing out of existence private schools the government has forbidden them to increase their billing. That is, tuition at private schools for 2007-2008 HAS TO BE THE SAME as during the 2006-2007 period. That official inflation was 15% and real inflation something above 20% does not concern the education minister of Chavez, his brother Adan, who every day looks more and more like the second in command, the bolibanana revolution imitating the Castro brothers show.

In addition minimum wage were increased by 20% last may, which forces an increase of 10 to 20% on wages that are above minimum, anyway. We all know that wages are the bulk of any school budget. Needless to say that private schools are seriously talking civil disobedience and that parents are supporting price increases! In many school parents have gathered to make "donations" and the phenomenon has been so widespread that Adan Chavez had to come out to say that such donations were illegal!

What direct benefit does the government hopes to achieve with that? Either close some schools, or force them to ask subsidies from the state. Subsidies are already given in lower social class neighborhoods private schools since the state has long ago discovered that it is cheaper to subsidize some catholic schools, for example, as it cannot manage the educational system as it should. Subsidies, of course, allow for political pressures on those schools who can at least be barred from any anti Chavez, pro capitalist message, if they were so inclined.

To confirm this wish to control educational message we also got this week an interesting moment. Barreto of soccer fields infamy, has decided to distribute in some public schools little cookies wrapped in political slogans which are by definition of dubious taste and cultural value. Some parents complained and Adan Chavez said that he did not understand the buzz. After all, according to him, children need to be told more and more about socialism of the XXI, which we are to understand is a good thing even if it looks, walks, quacks as a commie duck more and more. Parents of private schools obviously do not want anything related with any political indoctrination of their children.

It is a nice coincidence that the Washington Post reports today that educational textbooks in Russia are changed these days to glorify Putin more. And to bash the Untied States again. Echoes of a totalitarian past are back in the ex Soviet lands. Venezuela-Russia, "même combat".

Note: the children of chavista ministers in general do not attend public school! Most in fact attend some of the priciest private school. For example the Private French School of Caracas hosts many of those nomeklatura kids in either one of its French or Venezuelan section. The French school is one of the most expensive private schools of Venezuela...

Constitutional contempt

But if anyone had the faintest doubt that the chavista administration worried about ALL Venezuelans welfare, this was once again erased by Carlos Escarra. This sleazy and greasy lawyer, not trusted by Chavez, even today, has had to crawl into so many gutters to try to ingratiate himself that now that Chavez finally put into a position of interest, he wallows in intellectual litter even more gladly than when he was trying to climb. The list of all atrocities that Carlos Escarra has said is too long to mention and is worthy of ranking one day with the list of specious politico legal arguments of the Stalinist Massive Trial Judges or the Nazi judges that legalized deportation and racial cleansing.

The latest uttering of Escarra is that the 37% of people who voted against Chavez had no say on constitutional changes, that 63% had voted for socialism and that the change was irreversible so why should the government even bother explaining its reasons to a more than a third of the country. What about "Venezuela es de todos"? Visibly after the fiasco of the Copa America as the rallying moment the government stupidly hoped for, now it is time to erase the memory of those who oppose Chavez. If polls give Chavez below 40% these days, why not come back to that comforting 63% of people who voted for Chavez out of fear and under threat?

That is to be expected in a country that refused to punish someone like Tascon for his apartheid list. Any public official can now speak disparagingly against any political adversary knowing full well that the state power is geared to crush such adversaries.

And thus we can observe the two tenets of brain washing: brainwash the young as soon as possible, and pretend that the ones that cannot be brain washed do not exist.

-The end-

Chavistas are all the same: the IACHR fires its Venezuelan director

[Updated, twice, including blogger scrambling of the text!!! For some reason blogger put up an early rough draft!!!]

The juicy bit of news today was the firing from the board of Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Venezuelan representative, Freddy Gutierrez Trejo.

These things happen, you know, but what does not happen is that the decision of the rest of the board was apparently unanimous and that the language was not diplomatic at all: Gutierrez Trejo was simply accused to be a liar. We can deduce that the board has lost any confidence in his work and discretion. In other words, the board who works on very critical cases could not trust Gutierrez in the very minimum discretion and diplomacy that some cases require.

Gutierrez was accused also of having "abused repeatedly of his position as Rapporteur to attack the institutional integrity and impartiality of IACHR and its members, and give false testimony on pending matters and cases before the Commission."

Gutierrez, of course, in true chavivictim, sucks, repeats that IACHR has a hidden agenda, etc, etc... I am sure that if I listened carefully in true fashion he must have claimed that the IACHR was trying to silence him, that he is for full disclosure, full transparency. He also said that he does never reject a journalistic interview where he says the real truth. From seeing him on TV I guess that at least that last part was true. He does seem to relish a camera, in particular if it comes from a Chavez media. But of course, he is chavista and the IACHR has been criticizing Venezuela quite a lot since Chavez has been busy at work ensuring his power until kingdom comes. So I suppose he genuinely think he was doing his job and a great performance at that. Just like Barreto at the Estadio Olimpico.

They are all the same, Rodriguez, Barreto, Gutierrez, etc... There must be some special school for such guys. Sometimes I catch myself missing good old Jose Vicente who at least was good with his histrionics and did not even try to hide his cynicism.

Update: the resolution of the IACHR is up on their web site. the words "has made false statements" are there for all to read.

-The end-