[Updated]
I am flabbergasted about some of the scenes I have had to painfully watch on TV. And some of them can only be described as obscenity.
The first one is a huffing and puffing OAS secretary Insulza arriving at Tegucigalpa and calling for the pressure on Honduras new regime to be maintained. Fine. But what about the constant violations to Human Rights by Chavez under the dreadful silence and implied acquiescence of Insulza? Read his El Pais interview a few weeks ago as the latest shameful example. I would settle for him showing a quarter the concern he has over Honduras toward Venezuela.
Can any world "leader" put into the same paragraph a condemnation to the Honduras coup along a request for Zelaya to mend his ways if he wants to be worthy of the help he is requesting? (Though there is a Honorable mention to Colombia's Uribe who at least mentioned the dangers of intervention for the sake of it, a la Chavez).
Is not any one going to remind Chavez that he was himself a coupster, that he had scores of people killed, and truly innocent people at that, in 1992? Has he ever apologized for that? No, he is even making it a national holiday.
But the worst of all, the true obscenity of the year, is Raul Castro speaking to defend constitutionality in Honduras. I mean, are people not even ashamed to sit through the speeches of Raul at the Nicaragua assembly yesterday? Is not anyone going to point out that there has no been a fair election in Cuba for more than half a century? That the only way to vote in Cuba is with your feet?
It is amazing that the people who scream the loudest about the Honduras coup are perhaps the ones that should be the most aware of the glass house they are living in. More of that garbage and soon I am going to start finding virtues to the Honduras coup.
Update: I stand corrected in part. The Washington Post editorial of today, that I had not read yet, clarifies a few things.
-The end-
What do Norway and Venezuela have in common?
Some will say: both have gorgeous landscapes, both have oil...well, there is something else: Norway and Venezuela are complete non-average countries, both are out of the pack when it comes to control of corruption and rule of the law: according to World Bank's latest report on governance, Norway and Venezuela are on the extremes. The sad thing is that Venezuela is not in the good extreme, but in the bad one and that all the time. So, Norway is in the top 90th-100th percentile for both control of corruption and rule of law whereas Venezuela is also heading the list...bottom up approach.
If you want to check it out, please, go here and then select several countries, including Venezuela and Norway and then select the indicators Control of Corruption and Rule of Law. Venezuela is way below most African or Latin American countries or all the rest and Norway is over them almost all the time.
You can also take a look at the "progress" throughout more than a decade.
How come Venezuelans cannot put their act together? How come we keep sinking in corruption and injustice?
- Norway has had a superior education system for ages whereas Venezuela has one of the worst in Latin America and its quality has been degrading for decades. The Venezuelan government even refuses to take part in open international evaluation schemes as almost all South American countries do.
- Norwegians are not afraid of transparency and accountability, whereas Venezuelans abhor it.
- Norwegians are used to open debates whereas Venezuelans aren't at all.
- Norwegians learn from history but also look into the future, while Venezuelans keep repeating their history without having a real knowledge of it. They do so as they keep living the hic et nunc.
- Norwegians have a responsible parliamentarian system and in general a government with independent bodies, checks and counter-checks, whereas Venezuela has always been ruled by caudillos where the winner takes all.
These are just some generalizations and there are good things in which Venezuelans excel, but at this moment we need to ask ourselves: What can we learn from the others? What can we learn from our errors so far?
------------------------------------
Addendum:
Wikipedia reports this on education in Norway: "In 1736 training in reading was made compulsory for all children, but was not effective until some years later."
"Some years later". They don't specify further but I am sure it did not take that much.
Venezuela actually had compulsory education in theory from 1870 onwards, but the Encyclopaedia Britannica of 1911 would say this:
In popular education Venezuela has done almost nothing worthy of record. As in Chile, Peru and Colombia, the ruling classes and the Church have taken little interest in the education of the Indians and mestizos. Venezuela, it is true, has a comprehensive public instruction law, and attendance at the public schools is both gratuitous and nominally compulsory. But outside the cities, towns and large villages near the coast there are no schools and no teachers, nor has the government done anything to provide them. This law has been in force since about 1870, but on the 30th of June 1908 there were only 1150 public schools in the republic with a total enrolment of 35,777 pupils. There are a number of parochial and conventual schools, the church being hostile to the public-school system. An overwhelming majority of the people is illiterate and is practically unconscious of the defect. In 1908 the educational facilities provided by the republic, not including some private subventioned schools, were two universities and thirtythree national colleges. The universities are at Caracas and Merida, the latter known as the Universidad de los Andes. "Actually, my dad studied as a child under a mango tree in his village with a teacher who taught all children in the village who wanted and that was in the forties of the XX century. Things haven't improved much, as quality now is still the worst in Latin America and the Venezuelan government rejects any kind of transparency and open dialogue on how to improve education Now Venezuelan children spend a lot of time in school learning things by heart...when there are classes.
Diego Arria on Chavez and Honduras
Least we forget, Diego Arria, former Venezuelan ambassador to the UN who stayed there as a UN high ranking officer, reminds us the intense meddling of Chavez in foreign countries, bringing all sorts of problems and creating divisions where they might not have existed before. Watch the CNN interview. By the way, Diego Arria is on record stating that the Venezuelan army is the main responsible party of having let Venezuela democracy deteriorate so much. Today he can be considered as one of the main opponents of Chavez, and certainly the more articulated one, looking at evil right into the eye as having been a victim himself of chavismo: that is, he risks his life any time he comes to Venezuela.
I certainly agree with him that Venezuela is in fact today a cryptic military regime which makes it extremely hypocritical for Chavez to criticize the Honduras coup. Chavez has been a coupster and a bloody one at that; he has violated the constitution repeated times; he has stopped recognizing electoral results; he is not allowing referendum called by the people; he directs a regime where all the top positions are occupied by ex-military who remain untouchable by justice no matter how many charge of corruption are levied agaisnt them; and more, much more.
-The end-
I certainly agree with him that Venezuela is in fact today a cryptic military regime which makes it extremely hypocritical for Chavez to criticize the Honduras coup. Chavez has been a coupster and a bloody one at that; he has violated the constitution repeated times; he has stopped recognizing electoral results; he is not allowing referendum called by the people; he directs a regime where all the top positions are occupied by ex-military who remain untouchable by justice no matter how many charge of corruption are levied agaisnt them; and more, much more.
-The end-
In Argentina the Kirchners seem on their way out
With all the fuss about Honduras I did not get around to write on the other important event of the day: the Kirchners lost their automatic majority in congress yesterday. Argentina where institutions still work up to a point, even a divided opposition was able to gain a parliamentary majority, and a sweet prize, personally defeating Nestor Kirchner list who made it second in Buenos Aires! As I type I learn that he even resigned as the leader of Justicialismo.
I remember when a freshly inaugurated Kirchner traveled to Caracas in February 2004 and duly upset by Chavez repression received the Venezuelan opposition at the Argentina embassy. Since then he allowed himself to be influenced by Chavez petrodollars, became arrogant and corrupt, in case you already forgot the Antonini suitcase... But apparently Argentineans are still able to control the guy before he looks to Chavez like, even if he uses his wife as a decoy, pimp like.
Score another blow to Chavez continental strategy.
-The end-
I remember when a freshly inaugurated Kirchner traveled to Caracas in February 2004 and duly upset by Chavez repression received the Venezuelan opposition at the Argentina embassy. Since then he allowed himself to be influenced by Chavez petrodollars, became arrogant and corrupt, in case you already forgot the Antonini suitcase... But apparently Argentineans are still able to control the guy before he looks to Chavez like, even if he uses his wife as a decoy, pimp like.
Score another blow to Chavez continental strategy.
-The end-
Honduras press review
Another fun post, as a follow up of yesterday's entry read below.
The New York Times under Elizabeth Malkin as a clear story line on how the whole Honduras mess happened. The implication of it is that even if Zelaya is forced back upon Honduras he will find a united Congress and Courts and would likely be impeached anyway. She did not write that but any thoughtful leader should conclude that. In other words, the fat lady is far from singing yet.
The Washington Post under Forero and Booth is more emotional and come in late in throwing some indications on why it all happened. They still mention it but the effect is more in favor of Zelaya whereas the NYT piece is a model of objectivity. However there is something that the Post gives us, the Chavez factor, including the right perception that Chavez is going to make the best of it.
At the Wall Street Journal Maria Anastasia O'Grady makes no bones about where her sympathies lie. She is not troubled at all and along the way blasts Hillary Clinton. Insulza and Chavez of course also get their due.
The BBC does a fair job of reporting both sides and adds this very interesting comment: "But Hondurans say there is a total lack of information about what has happened to their country and their president, our correspondent adds." I guess that Lula is one of the victims of this lack of information as per his rather intemperate reactions as reported by the Guardian.
The Guardian through Rory Carroll starts stressing that there were protests in Tegucigalpa but later admits that they were not very large. In fact, further down the Guardian is the only one reporting that Zelaya ratings were in the 30% in the weeks preceding the coup. Interesting, no? Ah, that lack of information about banana republics, literally...
Of course I had to end this press review with the Miami Herald who gives two articles, as we should have expected. In its first piece, which follows what happens elsewhere we still notice that even Zelaya's party opposed him on the referendum he proposed. The Herald also bothers in printing that according to Chavez Venezuela's ambassador was beaten up and left on the side of the road. I have not read this from any trustworthy source, but assuming it is true I must congratulate Chavez to have made Venezuelan ambassadors as unpopular as US ambassadors in certain areas of the Globe. The second piece, you could have almost guessed it, is about Hondurans celebrating in Miami. Like O'Grady, they know where they stand.
-The end-
The New York Times under Elizabeth Malkin as a clear story line on how the whole Honduras mess happened. The implication of it is that even if Zelaya is forced back upon Honduras he will find a united Congress and Courts and would likely be impeached anyway. She did not write that but any thoughtful leader should conclude that. In other words, the fat lady is far from singing yet.
The Washington Post under Forero and Booth is more emotional and come in late in throwing some indications on why it all happened. They still mention it but the effect is more in favor of Zelaya whereas the NYT piece is a model of objectivity. However there is something that the Post gives us, the Chavez factor, including the right perception that Chavez is going to make the best of it.
At the Wall Street Journal Maria Anastasia O'Grady makes no bones about where her sympathies lie. She is not troubled at all and along the way blasts Hillary Clinton. Insulza and Chavez of course also get their due.
The BBC does a fair job of reporting both sides and adds this very interesting comment: "But Hondurans say there is a total lack of information about what has happened to their country and their president, our correspondent adds." I guess that Lula is one of the victims of this lack of information as per his rather intemperate reactions as reported by the Guardian.
The Guardian through Rory Carroll starts stressing that there were protests in Tegucigalpa but later admits that they were not very large. In fact, further down the Guardian is the only one reporting that Zelaya ratings were in the 30% in the weeks preceding the coup. Interesting, no? Ah, that lack of information about banana republics, literally...
Of course I had to end this press review with the Miami Herald who gives two articles, as we should have expected. In its first piece, which follows what happens elsewhere we still notice that even Zelaya's party opposed him on the referendum he proposed. The Herald also bothers in printing that according to Chavez Venezuela's ambassador was beaten up and left on the side of the road. I have not read this from any trustworthy source, but assuming it is true I must congratulate Chavez to have made Venezuelan ambassadors as unpopular as US ambassadors in certain areas of the Globe. The second piece, you could have almost guessed it, is about Hondurans celebrating in Miami. Like O'Grady, they know where they stand.
-The end-
Informational Luddite?
Today Doonesbury's strip is so pertinent to chavismo and assorted fellow travelers that I could not resist putting it up. Just to give you the most recent example, listen to Venezuelan state TV on Honduras (or Iran) and you will find exactly the frame of mind of Zonker. Eerie...
-The end-
Honduras: what CNN will probably not tell you
Before I start on this post, it is CNN "en español" that I am thinking off, CNN in English is still on its 23/24 on Michael Jackson. Since I am not fully back in business I am just going to make this post a semi random collection of notes.
OAS: It is going to prove once again to be useless on the matter. After having allowed Chavez to do so much, what moral authority does the OAS has to stand on any side of the Honduras mess? And I am not getting started on the latest about opening the door back to Cuba. I understand that the anti Zelaya camp did not even want the OAS to show up. After the mess the OAS left Venezuela in, no wonder...
OAS secretary Insulza: another one with crocodile tears big time. After having said to El Pais a few weeks ago that he did not find anything wrong with democracy in Venezuela he is now screaming bloody murder. Yeah, right, perfect representative of what the OAS has become, preparing his reeelction campaign by courting the only man whose vote he must have (the US vote is pretty much irrelevant today in the OAS).
Latin America presidents: of course they are all going to condemn the coup in Honduras even though I am sure secretly many are smiling. But the fact of the matter is that South of the Rio Grande ALL presidents sleep bad at night when rumors come from the barracks. Well, I might remove Costa Rica from that list but that would be the lone exception. So, since prevention is the best cure, well, they all condemn any coup, even if they like it. Who knows when they will need the elevator sent back.
The Honduras coupsters: who is the coupster really, Zelaya for forcing the issue on a vote apparently unconstitutional or the other side for not trying harder to reach some agreement? One thing is certain, whoever is in charge of the coup remembers the way it is done: send the ex president promptly into exile, the first mistake that the Venezuelan coupsters made in 2002 by not shipping post haste Chavez and family to Cuba. In other words, you do the coup or you do not do it. NOTE: this whole post cannot be read in any way or form as my endorsement or criticism of any coup anywhere, it is just a statement of fact. In some cases a coup or even an invasion can be perfectly justified, just as when Vietnam invaded Cambodia to put an end to the Khmer Rouge. It is all a matter of circumstances, at least in third world countries. Or are you going to tell me that you would condemn a coup against say, Mugabe or Bashir?
The coup in Honduras: let's hold our breath for a minute until we know exactly what was going on before the coup. In particular the possible Venezuelan intervention in support of an electoral act that was declared unconstitutional by the other independent powers of Honduras. It seems that the inspiration of Caracas for that illegal "consultation" went as far as Caracas printing the ballots! Let's not forget this crucial fact: in Honduras there is a separation of powers, which does not excuse any wrong doing but should be considered.
Was the coup unavoidable? It seems it was. Zelaya did the cardinal mistake that Chavez did in 2002: give an order that could not be legally executed by the chiefs of the army he nominally commanded. In 2002 Chavez asked for the army to get ready to shoot on a civilian march and the army refused. In Honduras Zelaya asked the army to monitor an election declared unconstitutional by the other powers and the army had to chose. When an army must go against its commander in chief, one of the two has to be removed. That is the way things go. Be it Truman removing McArthur the war hero, be it Lucas Rincon announcing Chavez resignation. In each case a big mess was created by the constitutional irresponsibility of a given individual (the president, his/her army chief of staff or both).
Chavez screams: it is indeed amusing to watch the official state TV in Venezuela (including Telesur) tied up in knots, way more upset probably about the Honduras coup than the people of Honduras. OK, I am guessing that but I would love to be proven wrong. But why is Chavez so worried about Honduras, to the point of threatening with military intervention and, all in all, trying to make things worse than what they already are? It is very simple: Chavez is much more interested in building a personal empire than worrying about what happens to the Venezuelan people. He paid enough money to create the ALBA that says yes to anything he wants and he is not going to relinquish that easily. Mine! Mine!
What is the Chavez strategy? Well, to circle Colombia so as to make Uribe like governments a thing on the past and recreate La Gran Colombia of Bolivar. He already got Ecuador and Nicaragua. He already tried Costa Rica and Peru and failed but new opportunities will come. But there is also a much longer term objective for Venezuela and Cuba: Mexico. To get to Mexico you need to get Guatemala and once you got Honduras (and Salvador?) Guatemala cannot be far behind. From Guatemala touching the Zapatista movement of Chiapas, all crazy dreams are allowed for Chavez. You think I am kidding? Think again: look at your maps and what better way to get back at the US but by installing an hostile regime on its borders? Maybe there is still 10 years needed but Castro-Chavismo is busy on that (though once Fidel croaks I am not so sure Cuba will be dreaming on that anymore).
By the way, was not Fidel bent on sabotaging the rule of Vicente Fox? Was not Chavez an issue in the latest Mexican Presidential election?
What did Chavez pay Zelaya? A simple arithmetic is enough. According to the CIA world fact books, Honduras has roughly 7.8 million people with an average GDP of 4,400 USD. Venezuela has a GDP of 13,500 for almost 4 times the population. Well, if you add Miranda, Aragua, Caracas and Carabobo you have roughly Honduras at yet a higher GDP than the Venezuela average. And imagine what Chavez spent in these 4 districts for his campaign of 2008 and 2009 (you know, the distribution of refrigerators, food, etc., for free). With that amount of money and an ambitious Zelaya it was easy to buy the executive of Honduras, and a secure sycophantic vote at the OAS for when Chavez represses further in Venezuela. In fact, I am willing to bet that Chavez spent less on Honduras than he spent in these states electoral campaign: the advantage of dealing with poor countries where a dollar goes further.
And what do CNN en español and the Carter Center say? I am amazed at hearing the words of the Associate Director for Latin America of the Carter Center being interviewed by CNN as I type this. He is Marcelo Varela Erasheva and he is simply supporting Zelaya, there is no other way to say it charitably. Because the other interpretations are that he is clueless, one of those idealists that has actually little understanding of the real world, or worse, he is bought by Chavez. I am not going into what he said but I am going to write this: if he represents the Carter Center, the organization who singlehandedly did the most to screw Venezuela then the new Honduras government (legal or not, legitimate or not) must make sure to exclude the Carter Center from any future action over Honduras. It is amazing to hear Marcelo Varela bemoan about Honduras of all the abuses to democracy, abuses hardly worse than those the Carter Center is keeping silent over Chavez and Venezuela.
The nerve!
Conclusions so far: Again our Latin tempers are creating messes that could have been avoided with a little bit more of honesty and patience. As far as I am concerned Zelaya and the people who ousted him should all be sent packing into exile; one for his new found ambition to be reelected in the country that has, I heard, the harshest term limit system; and the Honduras congress who in spite of its unanimity to select a successor did not manage things quite well. The new "government" needs to account clearly and fast of their actions and bring forward the complete evidence as to the need to oust Zelaya in such an expedite way. Knowing Chavez it is probably not too difficult to build a dossier on the matter.
But my real conclusion is that, again, presidential systems are more and more the curse of our continent where with caudillo mentality, its easy acceptation by most, mass media and cheap populist promises support is easy garnered regardless of the consequences. If Zelaya had been the prime minister, he would have been ousted without any problem, nobody would have really cared. The Carter Center would be well advised to think about such matters instead of sending its guy to defend Zelaya without any real questioning of the reasons that came to that crisis: after all it should give Marcelo Varela pause that in Honduras the courts AND the Congress agreed. 2 out of 3 ain't bad, no? It is not because the presidential system has worked in the US (only, I can argue) that it is the panacea everywhere. It is amazing where we keep finding this US messianic bent over its values, in spite of all the slaps received through history.
-The end-
OAS: It is going to prove once again to be useless on the matter. After having allowed Chavez to do so much, what moral authority does the OAS has to stand on any side of the Honduras mess? And I am not getting started on the latest about opening the door back to Cuba. I understand that the anti Zelaya camp did not even want the OAS to show up. After the mess the OAS left Venezuela in, no wonder...
OAS secretary Insulza: another one with crocodile tears big time. After having said to El Pais a few weeks ago that he did not find anything wrong with democracy in Venezuela he is now screaming bloody murder. Yeah, right, perfect representative of what the OAS has become, preparing his reeelction campaign by courting the only man whose vote he must have (the US vote is pretty much irrelevant today in the OAS).
Latin America presidents: of course they are all going to condemn the coup in Honduras even though I am sure secretly many are smiling. But the fact of the matter is that South of the Rio Grande ALL presidents sleep bad at night when rumors come from the barracks. Well, I might remove Costa Rica from that list but that would be the lone exception. So, since prevention is the best cure, well, they all condemn any coup, even if they like it. Who knows when they will need the elevator sent back.
The Honduras coupsters: who is the coupster really, Zelaya for forcing the issue on a vote apparently unconstitutional or the other side for not trying harder to reach some agreement? One thing is certain, whoever is in charge of the coup remembers the way it is done: send the ex president promptly into exile, the first mistake that the Venezuelan coupsters made in 2002 by not shipping post haste Chavez and family to Cuba. In other words, you do the coup or you do not do it. NOTE: this whole post cannot be read in any way or form as my endorsement or criticism of any coup anywhere, it is just a statement of fact. In some cases a coup or even an invasion can be perfectly justified, just as when Vietnam invaded Cambodia to put an end to the Khmer Rouge. It is all a matter of circumstances, at least in third world countries. Or are you going to tell me that you would condemn a coup against say, Mugabe or Bashir?
The coup in Honduras: let's hold our breath for a minute until we know exactly what was going on before the coup. In particular the possible Venezuelan intervention in support of an electoral act that was declared unconstitutional by the other independent powers of Honduras. It seems that the inspiration of Caracas for that illegal "consultation" went as far as Caracas printing the ballots! Let's not forget this crucial fact: in Honduras there is a separation of powers, which does not excuse any wrong doing but should be considered.
Was the coup unavoidable? It seems it was. Zelaya did the cardinal mistake that Chavez did in 2002: give an order that could not be legally executed by the chiefs of the army he nominally commanded. In 2002 Chavez asked for the army to get ready to shoot on a civilian march and the army refused. In Honduras Zelaya asked the army to monitor an election declared unconstitutional by the other powers and the army had to chose. When an army must go against its commander in chief, one of the two has to be removed. That is the way things go. Be it Truman removing McArthur the war hero, be it Lucas Rincon announcing Chavez resignation. In each case a big mess was created by the constitutional irresponsibility of a given individual (the president, his/her army chief of staff or both).
Chavez screams: it is indeed amusing to watch the official state TV in Venezuela (including Telesur) tied up in knots, way more upset probably about the Honduras coup than the people of Honduras. OK, I am guessing that but I would love to be proven wrong. But why is Chavez so worried about Honduras, to the point of threatening with military intervention and, all in all, trying to make things worse than what they already are? It is very simple: Chavez is much more interested in building a personal empire than worrying about what happens to the Venezuelan people. He paid enough money to create the ALBA that says yes to anything he wants and he is not going to relinquish that easily. Mine! Mine!
What is the Chavez strategy? Well, to circle Colombia so as to make Uribe like governments a thing on the past and recreate La Gran Colombia of Bolivar. He already got Ecuador and Nicaragua. He already tried Costa Rica and Peru and failed but new opportunities will come. But there is also a much longer term objective for Venezuela and Cuba: Mexico. To get to Mexico you need to get Guatemala and once you got Honduras (and Salvador?) Guatemala cannot be far behind. From Guatemala touching the Zapatista movement of Chiapas, all crazy dreams are allowed for Chavez. You think I am kidding? Think again: look at your maps and what better way to get back at the US but by installing an hostile regime on its borders? Maybe there is still 10 years needed but Castro-Chavismo is busy on that (though once Fidel croaks I am not so sure Cuba will be dreaming on that anymore).
By the way, was not Fidel bent on sabotaging the rule of Vicente Fox? Was not Chavez an issue in the latest Mexican Presidential election?
What did Chavez pay Zelaya? A simple arithmetic is enough. According to the CIA world fact books, Honduras has roughly 7.8 million people with an average GDP of 4,400 USD. Venezuela has a GDP of 13,500 for almost 4 times the population. Well, if you add Miranda, Aragua, Caracas and Carabobo you have roughly Honduras at yet a higher GDP than the Venezuela average. And imagine what Chavez spent in these 4 districts for his campaign of 2008 and 2009 (you know, the distribution of refrigerators, food, etc., for free). With that amount of money and an ambitious Zelaya it was easy to buy the executive of Honduras, and a secure sycophantic vote at the OAS for when Chavez represses further in Venezuela. In fact, I am willing to bet that Chavez spent less on Honduras than he spent in these states electoral campaign: the advantage of dealing with poor countries where a dollar goes further.
And what do CNN en español and the Carter Center say? I am amazed at hearing the words of the Associate Director for Latin America of the Carter Center being interviewed by CNN as I type this. He is Marcelo Varela Erasheva and he is simply supporting Zelaya, there is no other way to say it charitably. Because the other interpretations are that he is clueless, one of those idealists that has actually little understanding of the real world, or worse, he is bought by Chavez. I am not going into what he said but I am going to write this: if he represents the Carter Center, the organization who singlehandedly did the most to screw Venezuela then the new Honduras government (legal or not, legitimate or not) must make sure to exclude the Carter Center from any future action over Honduras. It is amazing to hear Marcelo Varela bemoan about Honduras of all the abuses to democracy, abuses hardly worse than those the Carter Center is keeping silent over Chavez and Venezuela.
The nerve!
Conclusions so far: Again our Latin tempers are creating messes that could have been avoided with a little bit more of honesty and patience. As far as I am concerned Zelaya and the people who ousted him should all be sent packing into exile; one for his new found ambition to be reelected in the country that has, I heard, the harshest term limit system; and the Honduras congress who in spite of its unanimity to select a successor did not manage things quite well. The new "government" needs to account clearly and fast of their actions and bring forward the complete evidence as to the need to oust Zelaya in such an expedite way. Knowing Chavez it is probably not too difficult to build a dossier on the matter.
But my real conclusion is that, again, presidential systems are more and more the curse of our continent where with caudillo mentality, its easy acceptation by most, mass media and cheap populist promises support is easy garnered regardless of the consequences. If Zelaya had been the prime minister, he would have been ousted without any problem, nobody would have really cared. The Carter Center would be well advised to think about such matters instead of sending its guy to defend Zelaya without any real questioning of the reasons that came to that crisis: after all it should give Marcelo Varela pause that in Honduras the courts AND the Congress agreed. 2 out of 3 ain't bad, no? It is not because the presidential system has worked in the US (only, I can argue) that it is the panacea everywhere. It is amazing where we keep finding this US messianic bent over its values, in spite of all the slaps received through history.
-The end-
A Venezuelan improving human rights in Denmark
Francisco de Miranda was a Venezuelan independence revolutionary considered as forerunner of Simón Bolívar. I usually am very wary about praising military "heroes" at all Simón Bolívar is seen as a semi-God in Venezuela and he has been used by politicos since the XIX century in order to polish their own image. Still, I think Miranda deserves some attention. Miranda's life was full of adventures, but those adventures took place in his quest for finding things out and his efforts to improve the life of normal people. He met and became friends with scientists and kings, artists and philanthropists throughout Europe and used those relationships to move around and start designing a plan for freedom of Spanish America. Before getting into the Venezuela revolutionary adventure, Miranda traveled through North America and Europe. He also visited Turkey and fought in Morocco. He kept a fascinating diary where he talked about all societal aspects of the regions he visited, about politics, about arts, economy and more. You can sense his love for humans when you read his diary. There he reported about the life conditions in Greece and Germany, in Spain and in his Venezuela and how he was trying to find concrete ways of improving things.
Every part of his diary is fascinating, but here I want to mention one single thing: his contribution to the improvement of human rights in Denmark, something few people know.
Miranda arrived at the Danish capital in early January of 1788. He came on a trip that had taken him throughout Europe and Asian Turkey. He had been in Sweden and Norway before arriving to Denmark. He stayed there until March. A friend of his, Norwegian businessman and politician Carsten Anker, became his unofficial guide and accompanied him through many places. Miranda asked to be shown the Danish prisons. He described in detail conditions there, he realized how tortured was still practiced even if it had been officially banned some years earlier, how processes took place, how guards behaved. He tried to inform himself about specific prisoners and see how he could help them. He listened to prisoners and guards, to politicians and people on the streets. The situation did not seem to be worse than in many other places back then, but in Denmark he got a little bit luckier with the authorities. For weeks he meet with the authorities, even with the Prince. He tried pulling the right strings, specially with the help of his Norwegian friend Anker, who was a friend of the Danish monarc.
A letter of diplomat Krüdener to the Russian vicechancellor of 12 February 1788 talked about the results of those efforts: "Count Miranda (Miranda was not really a count, but he pretended to be one on occasion), examining here the public institutions with investigative spirit that is so typical of him, has found prisons in a horrible state...He decided to denounce this abuse and it has been thanks to his intervention that the Royal Prince has ordered to examine them, to present a report about them and to improve the state of the prisons".
Miranda was particularly moved by a girl with mental problems sentenced to be beheaded because she had an abortion. He also was shocked by the way some elderly were kept in miserable conditions . In his diary there are references about how he followed up their cases until there was a visible improvement. His efforts, together with those of Anker, made a difference to many people in Denmark.
Miranda had previously fought for Spain to take over Western Florida during the US American revolution (1781), he later fought in the French revolution (his name is engraved in the Arc de Triomphe) and he finally led the way in the South American independence wars. He surrendered in 1812 to avoid a complete massacre of his troops, but then he was betrayed by Simón Bolívar, who delivered him to the Spanish forces in order to run away. Miranda went to a Spanish prison where he died in 1816.
Venezuelans are told to interpret Bolivar's treason differently: Bolivar gave Miranda to the Spaniards because he felt "Miranda had betrayed the revolution". This does not make sense at all: Bolivar got an exit passport from those Spaniards for handing over Miranda. With that passport he could get away. He would later return to Venezuela to lead the independence movement, but that is another story.
You can read a selection of Miranda's diaries (in the Spanish original, with the original orthography) here. You can read a biography in English here. I would also recommend a good German book about him, Francisco de Miranda und die Entdeckung Europas, but I think it is out of print now. A lot of people agree Miranda was ahead of his time, but he also was out of touch with realities in Venezuela. I would say he also had a lot of bad luck at the end. Still, Miranda wrote a lot of things about how societies fail and succeed which, in my opinion, are still very valid and can help us today.
Back then the differences between Denmark and the Spanish colony of Venezuela were meaningful, but not as much as today. For one, the situation of human rights in Denmark has vastly improved. The situation in Venezuela, on the other hand, stagnates. In 2008, 410 prisoners were murdered in prisons in Venezuela, where there is no death penalty. Miranda would feel ashamed. I do.
Ps.
Here you can read in Danish some part of the diary referring to Miranda's visit to one of the Danish prisons.
A statue of Miranda in London, where he lived for many years and where he had two children with his British wife:
Every part of his diary is fascinating, but here I want to mention one single thing: his contribution to the improvement of human rights in Denmark, something few people know.
Miranda arrived at the Danish capital in early January of 1788. He came on a trip that had taken him throughout Europe and Asian Turkey. He had been in Sweden and Norway before arriving to Denmark. He stayed there until March. A friend of his, Norwegian businessman and politician Carsten Anker, became his unofficial guide and accompanied him through many places. Miranda asked to be shown the Danish prisons. He described in detail conditions there, he realized how tortured was still practiced even if it had been officially banned some years earlier, how processes took place, how guards behaved. He tried to inform himself about specific prisoners and see how he could help them. He listened to prisoners and guards, to politicians and people on the streets. The situation did not seem to be worse than in many other places back then, but in Denmark he got a little bit luckier with the authorities. For weeks he meet with the authorities, even with the Prince. He tried pulling the right strings, specially with the help of his Norwegian friend Anker, who was a friend of the Danish monarc.
A letter of diplomat Krüdener to the Russian vicechancellor of 12 February 1788 talked about the results of those efforts: "Count Miranda (Miranda was not really a count, but he pretended to be one on occasion), examining here the public institutions with investigative spirit that is so typical of him, has found prisons in a horrible state...He decided to denounce this abuse and it has been thanks to his intervention that the Royal Prince has ordered to examine them, to present a report about them and to improve the state of the prisons".
Miranda was particularly moved by a girl with mental problems sentenced to be beheaded because she had an abortion. He also was shocked by the way some elderly were kept in miserable conditions . In his diary there are references about how he followed up their cases until there was a visible improvement. His efforts, together with those of Anker, made a difference to many people in Denmark.
Miranda had previously fought for Spain to take over Western Florida during the US American revolution (1781), he later fought in the French revolution (his name is engraved in the Arc de Triomphe) and he finally led the way in the South American independence wars. He surrendered in 1812 to avoid a complete massacre of his troops, but then he was betrayed by Simón Bolívar, who delivered him to the Spanish forces in order to run away. Miranda went to a Spanish prison where he died in 1816.
Venezuelans are told to interpret Bolivar's treason differently: Bolivar gave Miranda to the Spaniards because he felt "Miranda had betrayed the revolution". This does not make sense at all: Bolivar got an exit passport from those Spaniards for handing over Miranda. With that passport he could get away. He would later return to Venezuela to lead the independence movement, but that is another story.
You can read a selection of Miranda's diaries (in the Spanish original, with the original orthography) here. You can read a biography in English here. I would also recommend a good German book about him, Francisco de Miranda und die Entdeckung Europas, but I think it is out of print now. A lot of people agree Miranda was ahead of his time, but he also was out of touch with realities in Venezuela. I would say he also had a lot of bad luck at the end. Still, Miranda wrote a lot of things about how societies fail and succeed which, in my opinion, are still very valid and can help us today.
Back then the differences between Denmark and the Spanish colony of Venezuela were meaningful, but not as much as today. For one, the situation of human rights in Denmark has vastly improved. The situation in Venezuela, on the other hand, stagnates. In 2008, 410 prisoners were murdered in prisons in Venezuela, where there is no death penalty. Miranda would feel ashamed. I do.
Ps.
Here you can read in Danish some part of the diary referring to Miranda's visit to one of the Danish prisons.
A statue of Miranda in London, where he lived for many years and where he had two children with his British wife:
Playa Guacuco News and Views
Grilled "pargo" with "tostones", washed down by a Solera light, on a roadside joint, over Playa Guacuco. Simple, nothing fancy, no frills whatsoever, only the Caribbean sea breeze for company. And yet effective in ways that only happen in Venezuela. Life can still be good here, on occasion, no matter how miserable Chavez tries to make it for us.
-The end-
Michael Jackson is dead! We can now forget about Iran!
There is almost something indecent about how the media have embraced the death o Michael Jackson. Not too belittle his artistic stature but the cynic in me cannot help but wonder if that demise was not welcome as a way to dump Iran from the front pages. After all Iran is going nowhere. As expected repression is taking place, manifestations seem to be going down, foreign news services have been expulsed and we are not seeing anywhere a possible reaction, international condemnation or anything of the sort.
Indeed, what can we do? Iran has more people than most European countries, difficult terrain, neighbors that probably look forward internal decomposition of Iran and who think that repression is the best way to usher an era of profitable instability. Not to mention that the electoral mess will tarnish the image of democracy in countries like Saudi Arabia: “see? Elections solve nothing! Look at these dumb Iranians, all the trouble they got into!”
After having embraced the Iran mess so wholeheartedly mass media suddenly found itself in trouble: they were expelled, they had people hooked on the news and this news came from the streets of Teheran, not from the correspondents. Soon enough I am willing to bet that many an information director started getting worried…. Covering Michael Jackson suddenly must have seemed so much more predicable, and controllable.
At least the most important thing was made clear from Iran: the Islamic Republic was never a Republic. In fact it was a theocratic monarchy and we did not really know about it. Khameini was the real and sole power and Ahmadinejad for all of his figuration was simply taking the line dictated by the Theocrat. The presidency of Iran was just an errand boy position. The good thing is that we all know, inside or outside of Iran, that the Iranian Islamic Revolution was not any better than the Shah era. The “democracy” we saw was just a dispute among factions within a single political structure, a little bit as if the Mexican PRI had forbidden any opposition but allowed to or three PRI officials to run for the people to chose. Except that this would have been way more democratic than Iran because Mexico was at least a secular state which downgraded severely the reach of the Catholic Church.
And as for Michael and me, the news leaves me cold. He was a deeply flawed individual but that is the case with many great artists who did change things for the long term. I did not like his stuff much anyway, though Billie Jean was a favorite of mine. So yes, it is momentous but hardly worth the excitement. At least it will be more difficult to impersonate him than Elvis.
-The end-
Indeed, what can we do? Iran has more people than most European countries, difficult terrain, neighbors that probably look forward internal decomposition of Iran and who think that repression is the best way to usher an era of profitable instability. Not to mention that the electoral mess will tarnish the image of democracy in countries like Saudi Arabia: “see? Elections solve nothing! Look at these dumb Iranians, all the trouble they got into!”
After having embraced the Iran mess so wholeheartedly mass media suddenly found itself in trouble: they were expelled, they had people hooked on the news and this news came from the streets of Teheran, not from the correspondents. Soon enough I am willing to bet that many an information director started getting worried…. Covering Michael Jackson suddenly must have seemed so much more predicable, and controllable.
At least the most important thing was made clear from Iran: the Islamic Republic was never a Republic. In fact it was a theocratic monarchy and we did not really know about it. Khameini was the real and sole power and Ahmadinejad for all of his figuration was simply taking the line dictated by the Theocrat. The presidency of Iran was just an errand boy position. The good thing is that we all know, inside or outside of Iran, that the Iranian Islamic Revolution was not any better than the Shah era. The “democracy” we saw was just a dispute among factions within a single political structure, a little bit as if the Mexican PRI had forbidden any opposition but allowed to or three PRI officials to run for the people to chose. Except that this would have been way more democratic than Iran because Mexico was at least a secular state which downgraded severely the reach of the Catholic Church.
And as for Michael and me, the news leaves me cold. He was a deeply flawed individual but that is the case with many great artists who did change things for the long term. I did not like his stuff much anyway, though Billie Jean was a favorite of mine. So yes, it is momentous but hardly worth the excitement. At least it will be more difficult to impersonate him than Elvis.
-The end-
Chavez meddles in Honduras
I am on a break with little Internet and little desire to watch TV and investigate, but today Chavez actions hit a new low that I must report. Apparently the president of Honduras has tried to sneak in a ballot measure to ensure his reelection (they all love that, don’t they!). Well, it seems the military did not agree and the courts and Congress gave them reason. Right now the situation is very confused there as Zelaya seems to have been abandoned by most folks and could see himself impeached for what was an unconstitutional action.
Chavez is not going to let go a client state that easily (Honduras is now an ALBA associate, the union of failed or semi failed states living on the Venezuelan largesse). Already today in Venezuela he opened his big mouth, gave extensive declarations AND instructions about Honduras and to the Honduras people. And wait! It gets better! The Honduras ambassador in Venezuela behaved in a special Alo Presidente as your average political hack, doing things unbecoming of an ambassador.
I do not know exactly what is going on but I am certain of one thing, ANY president of ANY country would dare to say about Venezuela a tenth of what Chavez said today about Honduras and we would have seen Chavez go bonkers. I mean, even the term “double standards” is not enough to describe Chavez now…
Note: no links, “as seen on TV” at cocktail hour.
-The end-
Chavez is not going to let go a client state that easily (Honduras is now an ALBA associate, the union of failed or semi failed states living on the Venezuelan largesse). Already today in Venezuela he opened his big mouth, gave extensive declarations AND instructions about Honduras and to the Honduras people. And wait! It gets better! The Honduras ambassador in Venezuela behaved in a special Alo Presidente as your average political hack, doing things unbecoming of an ambassador.
I do not know exactly what is going on but I am certain of one thing, ANY president of ANY country would dare to say about Venezuela a tenth of what Chavez said today about Honduras and we would have seen Chavez go bonkers. I mean, even the term “double standards” is not enough to describe Chavez now…
Note: no links, “as seen on TV” at cocktail hour.
-The end-
My piece on Globovision for Index on Censorship
Index on Censorship, a specialty magazine on the question, well regarded and with good pens, has asked me to write another piece for them, considering the recent attacks on Globovision. The article can be read here. OK, so it is not quite what I wrote but I made it too long and was aware the editor would slice happily into it. Still, the essential is there, and there is already a Chavez apologists attacking! They are watching every where! So please, if you have time to read it, leave a comment if you can.
-The end-
-The end-
Venezuela and cocaine traffic to Europe
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime just published its yearly report on world drug. There is a lot of interesting and equally horrifying information in there. I just point to the issues relating to Venezuela.
Most cocaine is still produced in Colombia, although cocaine production can be found in Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. Venezuelans used to say "Venezuela is a transit country, not a consumption, the problem lies in the producing areas and at the consumer side". It is true consumers of illegal drugs should be made responsible as well as they are financing a criminal and very lethal activity. Still, the Venezuelan public (not physicians and some other workers in the area of health) is deluding itself if it thinks the cocaine problem is not a big threat for Venezuela as well, in every sense. Cocaine consumption in Venezuela has been increasing for a long time already. You don't have many thousands of people working in the transport of cocaine and expect them to remain without addiction.
"The most frequently memntioned country of origin of the cocaine trafficked to Europe is Colombia (48% of countries reported Colombia as the source country for their seizures) followed by Peru (30%) and the Plurinational State of Bolivia (18% of the countries). The most frequently reported transit countries were the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Ecuador".
Further it reads "the most important cocaine transit country [for Europe] in 2007 in volume terms was the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela".
1- Venezuelans are more represented than Brazilians because they often don't speak Portuguese well and thus they don't find their way around as drug mules or
2- Venezuelans indeed have "issues": they are more likely to be involved with that traffic in Portugal than Brazilians.
Brazil has many more people, a higher purchasing power than Venezuela and the mother tongue is Portuguese and yet more Venezuelans than Brazilians get caught trafficking cocaine in Portugal. I haven't been able to find the statistics on Venezuelan versus Brazilian visitors to Portugal but I am sure more Brazilians visit Portugal than Venezuelans.
The report also talks about the increasing importance of West Africa as a transit route to Europe. The cocaine comes mostly from South America. As previously mentioned in this blog, Venezuela is one of the routes taken to ship the drugs to Africa. It goes through the Caribbean Islands or through the Orinoco Delta to the Atlantic Ocean and from there indirectly through Western Africa or directly to Europe.
A responsible Venezuelan government (hopefully we have a better one in 2013) should:
Most cocaine is still produced in Colombia, although cocaine production can be found in Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. Venezuelans used to say "Venezuela is a transit country, not a consumption, the problem lies in the producing areas and at the consumer side". It is true consumers of illegal drugs should be made responsible as well as they are financing a criminal and very lethal activity. Still, the Venezuelan public (not physicians and some other workers in the area of health) is deluding itself if it thinks the cocaine problem is not a big threat for Venezuela as well, in every sense. Cocaine consumption in Venezuela has been increasing for a long time already. You don't have many thousands of people working in the transport of cocaine and expect them to remain without addiction.
According to the UNODC, Venezuela accounted for the seizure of 32 metric tones in 2007. Colombia accounted for 60% of all seizures. The report confirms what we wrote earlier:
"Cocaine trafficked to North America typicall originates in Colombia and reaches the US through Mexico, either directly by speed boats or via cocuntries such as the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama. Most of the cocaine (close to 70%) is estimated to be transported via the Eastern-Pacific route towards Mexio and some 20% via the Western Caribbean route."
"Cocaine trafficked to North America typicall originates in Colombia and reaches the US through Mexico, either directly by speed boats or via cocuntries such as the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama. Most of the cocaine (close to 70%) is estimated to be transported via the Eastern-Pacific route towards Mexio and some 20% via the Western Caribbean route."
Further, it says:
"The most frequently memntioned country of origin of the cocaine trafficked to Europe is Colombia (48% of countries reported Colombia as the source country for their seizures) followed by Peru (30%) and the Plurinational State of Bolivia (18% of the countries). The most frequently reported transit countries were the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Ecuador".
Further it reads "the most important cocaine transit country [for Europe] in 2007 in volume terms was the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela".
Very worryingly for Venezuelans is that whether cocaine consumption in the US decreased slightly and it stagnated in Europe, it has kept increasing in their land. The report lists Venezuela first in the list of South American countries where cocaine consumption has increased.
Venezuelans were the third largest group of foreigners detained for cocaine trafficking in Portugal in 2007. It is interesting to see Venezuelans follow with 10% of detentions the people of Cape Verde (with 52%), and those from Guineau-Bisseau (12%). Brazil, with a much larger population than Venezuela and speaking Portuguese, represented 8% of the foreigners caught trafficking cocaine in Portugal. So: Venezuelans are much more likely to be caught as cocaine traffiquers in Portugal than Brazilians. You could think that:
Venezuelans were the third largest group of foreigners detained for cocaine trafficking in Portugal in 2007. It is interesting to see Venezuelans follow with 10% of detentions the people of Cape Verde (with 52%), and those from Guineau-Bisseau (12%). Brazil, with a much larger population than Venezuela and speaking Portuguese, represented 8% of the foreigners caught trafficking cocaine in Portugal. So: Venezuelans are much more likely to be caught as cocaine traffiquers in Portugal than Brazilians. You could think that:
1- Venezuelans are more represented than Brazilians because they often don't speak Portuguese well and thus they don't find their way around as drug mules or
2- Venezuelans indeed have "issues": they are more likely to be involved with that traffic in Portugal than Brazilians.
Brazil has many more people, a higher purchasing power than Venezuela and the mother tongue is Portuguese and yet more Venezuelans than Brazilians get caught trafficking cocaine in Portugal. I haven't been able to find the statistics on Venezuelan versus Brazilian visitors to Portugal but I am sure more Brazilians visit Portugal than Venezuelans.
The report also talks about the increasing importance of West Africa as a transit route to Europe. The cocaine comes mostly from South America. As previously mentioned in this blog, Venezuela is one of the routes taken to ship the drugs to Africa. It goes through the Caribbean Islands or through the Orinoco Delta to the Atlantic Ocean and from there indirectly through Western Africa or directly to Europe.
A responsible Venezuelan government (hopefully we have a better one in 2013) should:
- Recognize that even if Venezuelan cocaine consumption may not be particularly high, they are a big threat to the country and contribute to violent crimes
- Enforce a policy of informing all foreign nationals that cocaine consumers are also guilty of cocaine-related crimes as they support a traffic that is illegal
- Permanently bring forward to the international opinion the need to discuss how to tackle the drug problem: either you legalize the traffic and control it through hospitals and the like or you also follow a mature campaign in Europe and the US (and everywhere else) where everyone becomes aware cocaine consumers are financing drug cartels.
- Cooperate fully with other countries in the drug control
Primaries for the Venezuelan opposition?
Although away for a short vacation echoes of the internal debate of the opposition (assuming that it is actually taking place) reach me. The new coordination group seems to be dead on arrival as it is not yet able to make a difference with the long extinct and failed Coordinadora Democratica. And Leopoldo Lopez, with time on his hands, is proposing a primary system as the universal panacea to motivate all to go and vote and trash Chavez. Meanwhile, with the hot button of Globovision to hide the real stuff going on, the government is passing a new electoral law that will ensure that the opposition can gain a majority in the parliament only if it gets more than 50% of the popular vote, and I do not mean 51 or 52, I mean at least 55%.
What to do?
I have been thinking about writing about this topic but since I avoid writing about what should be done since I will never be given an opportunity to try it out, I dodge. But been on vacation, for once I will indulge.
The first think to be aware of is that a primary system will not solve any problem of opposition unity unless guarantees for small players are not respected. In real terms this mean that a representative seat must be guaranteed to any semi significant group, and its prima donna leader, if not they will lose any motivation to sweat it to get the other guys elected. It is one thing to unite behind a referendum proposal or behind a presidential candidate as the collective interest is obvious and the collective rewards implied. It is another thing to try to elect 10 Primero Justicia representatives when your own party will probably get zilch since it lost it all in the primaries. Egotistical perhaps but this is the way politics work, even ten years under Chavez autocracy.
On the other hand, behind closed doors negotiations do not guarantee unity and division over failed negotiations end up in dramatic losses like Bolivar State or the town halls of Valencia and Cumana last November. The answer? A combination of both. Some seats should be negotiated to guarantee representation to all parties even if the bigger ones (UNT, PJ) must make some concessions. And the bulk should be assigned according to primaries.
First, there must be reasonably appreciation of how many seats could a united opposition aspire to with the November result. As it stands now this probably would amount to 40% of the actual National Assembly, or say, rounding it, 60 seats. That is, the strategy must be to ensure 60 seats, anything above that is bonus. Thus we can already divide the potential seats in two groups: the 60 “likely” and the rest “less likely”. The first conclusion is that the “less likely” seats should be allocated under a strict system based on primaries, and that is that.
The second problem is to divide these 60 “likely” into two groups. The first group would be 15 seats assigned by negotiations so as to make sure that all get at least one seat. Think about it: PJ, UNT, AD, COPEI, MAS, PODEMOS, BR, CONVERGENCIA, ABP, PV, plus 2-3 regional groups and we are already nearing 15! The other 45 “likely” seats will be assigned through a primary system which is way more complicated to come up with than what people might think.
The electoral system of Venezuela is not very friendly to organizing primaries since we can elect representatives through lists and through districts. And in small states such as Yaracuy our 5 representatives come from 1 each from three districts and 2 from a list, precluding any real proportional representation. Thus we could risk CONVERGENCIA, the local opposition group, to claim all and not lift a finger elsewhere; which is what happened in the 2000 vote.
This is not an obstacle nor an advantage but there are ways to force all the small parties that get entitled to one seat to campaign hard: make these 15 winning seats depend as much as possible on the representation of the state at large to motivate as much the beneficiaries of the "safe" seat to move their butt during a campaign.
Example Yaracuy: the expected CONVERGENCIA seat should be in the list seat, that is, CONVERGENCIA will need to campaign all across the state in the name of all parties to elect its representative, and thus hopefully pull the other guys along in individual districts (assuming that CONVERGENCIA is not dead but that is another story). We could sweeten the deal by granting them one of the district seats but the other two and the second list should be designed through primaries. But no matter what, the agonizing CONVERGENCIA should be told that it will get only two seats, and if it works hard at it. If it refuses then Yaracuy will probably not elect a single opposition representative but CONVERGENCIA will disappear once and for all.
The reverse example would apply to Miranda were district seats are harder to win, such as the two from Eastern Caracas. As such Primero Justicia and COPEI should get their two “likely” from Petare district and work hard, the result showing up in the list representatives for the state at large which list is primary driven.
As you can gather, we are talking individualized primaries state by state according to what the original negotiation yields. Is this a problem? Not necessary. A nation wide primary would generate bitter resentment after a national campaign. We do not have that luxury. Besides I doubt that SUMATE has the finances to organize a single primary day. On the other hand having half a dozen of Sunday primaries allow for state by state strategies, diluting the humiliation for the losers while keeping the winners on their toes. Let’s take Yaracuy as an imaginary example: during the primaries CONVERGENCIA wins but with only 35% while UNT gets 25%. CONVERGENCIA is thus forced to content itself with 2 candidates (one safe and one primary), UNT one and the other two to the other runner up (likely PODEMOS and PJ). Thus CONVERGENCIA pays its errors of the past but is given a chance to rebuild and Yaracuy could surprise all by sending 3 out of 5 representatives when today it is expected to send 5 chavista.
What we need is a responsible negotiation without any grandstanding from any one. Primaries should also be seen as an excellent opportunity for all to build their bases and expand outside of their areas of influence. For example, what better way for Primero Justica to enter in Merida or Anzoategui or even Zulia but to run in a primary there? What better way for CONVERGENCIA to prove it is still relevant in Yaracuy but to try to win the primary there? What better way for UNT to prove that it is not stuck in Zulia by winning or at least reaching second in Caracas downtown primary?
Again, primaries in Venezuela are not the “solve it all” tool. We must respect the primacy of certain parties in their areas: Zulia should have a majority of “likely” in UNT as does PJ in Miranda or PV in Carabobo. Thus the importance of a negotiated chunk of representatives that I put at 15 but that could well be as many as 20 or 25 (but never more than 40% of the “likely” otherwise people might get pissed off). UNT, PJ and PV should recognize that if they will get a majority of elected representatives in their fiefdoms, they must make room for at least 1 or 2 from other parties.
All in all a very complex issue but as long as the opposition leadership does not start tackling complex issue in a mature and realistic way, Chavez will remain in office Iran style and each time it will be more difficult to boot him out through peaceful means. Assuming that this is still possible, but that is yet another story.
This being said, right now I am very pessimistic about a nice arrangement on this complex matter and I am certainly not holding my breath at been consulted on the matter even though I have proven that I know more about electoral projects than many of those who grace of their presence the screen Globovison, while it lasts. But heck, it was fun to write this and I cannot wait until I can say “I told you”!
Note: I limited this discussion to National Assembly elections which should come next year. Though if it were up to me the opposition should have started long ago a recall election drive on these creeps. But that is also another story. Back to topic, primaries discussion for local council elections would be an even more devilish endavour!
-The end-
What to do?
I have been thinking about writing about this topic but since I avoid writing about what should be done since I will never be given an opportunity to try it out, I dodge. But been on vacation, for once I will indulge.
The first think to be aware of is that a primary system will not solve any problem of opposition unity unless guarantees for small players are not respected. In real terms this mean that a representative seat must be guaranteed to any semi significant group, and its prima donna leader, if not they will lose any motivation to sweat it to get the other guys elected. It is one thing to unite behind a referendum proposal or behind a presidential candidate as the collective interest is obvious and the collective rewards implied. It is another thing to try to elect 10 Primero Justicia representatives when your own party will probably get zilch since it lost it all in the primaries. Egotistical perhaps but this is the way politics work, even ten years under Chavez autocracy.
On the other hand, behind closed doors negotiations do not guarantee unity and division over failed negotiations end up in dramatic losses like Bolivar State or the town halls of Valencia and Cumana last November. The answer? A combination of both. Some seats should be negotiated to guarantee representation to all parties even if the bigger ones (UNT, PJ) must make some concessions. And the bulk should be assigned according to primaries.
First, there must be reasonably appreciation of how many seats could a united opposition aspire to with the November result. As it stands now this probably would amount to 40% of the actual National Assembly, or say, rounding it, 60 seats. That is, the strategy must be to ensure 60 seats, anything above that is bonus. Thus we can already divide the potential seats in two groups: the 60 “likely” and the rest “less likely”. The first conclusion is that the “less likely” seats should be allocated under a strict system based on primaries, and that is that.
The second problem is to divide these 60 “likely” into two groups. The first group would be 15 seats assigned by negotiations so as to make sure that all get at least one seat. Think about it: PJ, UNT, AD, COPEI, MAS, PODEMOS, BR, CONVERGENCIA, ABP, PV, plus 2-3 regional groups and we are already nearing 15! The other 45 “likely” seats will be assigned through a primary system which is way more complicated to come up with than what people might think.
The electoral system of Venezuela is not very friendly to organizing primaries since we can elect representatives through lists and through districts. And in small states such as Yaracuy our 5 representatives come from 1 each from three districts and 2 from a list, precluding any real proportional representation. Thus we could risk CONVERGENCIA, the local opposition group, to claim all and not lift a finger elsewhere; which is what happened in the 2000 vote.
This is not an obstacle nor an advantage but there are ways to force all the small parties that get entitled to one seat to campaign hard: make these 15 winning seats depend as much as possible on the representation of the state at large to motivate as much the beneficiaries of the "safe" seat to move their butt during a campaign.
Example Yaracuy: the expected CONVERGENCIA seat should be in the list seat, that is, CONVERGENCIA will need to campaign all across the state in the name of all parties to elect its representative, and thus hopefully pull the other guys along in individual districts (assuming that CONVERGENCIA is not dead but that is another story). We could sweeten the deal by granting them one of the district seats but the other two and the second list should be designed through primaries. But no matter what, the agonizing CONVERGENCIA should be told that it will get only two seats, and if it works hard at it. If it refuses then Yaracuy will probably not elect a single opposition representative but CONVERGENCIA will disappear once and for all.
The reverse example would apply to Miranda were district seats are harder to win, such as the two from Eastern Caracas. As such Primero Justicia and COPEI should get their two “likely” from Petare district and work hard, the result showing up in the list representatives for the state at large which list is primary driven.
As you can gather, we are talking individualized primaries state by state according to what the original negotiation yields. Is this a problem? Not necessary. A nation wide primary would generate bitter resentment after a national campaign. We do not have that luxury. Besides I doubt that SUMATE has the finances to organize a single primary day. On the other hand having half a dozen of Sunday primaries allow for state by state strategies, diluting the humiliation for the losers while keeping the winners on their toes. Let’s take Yaracuy as an imaginary example: during the primaries CONVERGENCIA wins but with only 35% while UNT gets 25%. CONVERGENCIA is thus forced to content itself with 2 candidates (one safe and one primary), UNT one and the other two to the other runner up (likely PODEMOS and PJ). Thus CONVERGENCIA pays its errors of the past but is given a chance to rebuild and Yaracuy could surprise all by sending 3 out of 5 representatives when today it is expected to send 5 chavista.
What we need is a responsible negotiation without any grandstanding from any one. Primaries should also be seen as an excellent opportunity for all to build their bases and expand outside of their areas of influence. For example, what better way for Primero Justica to enter in Merida or Anzoategui or even Zulia but to run in a primary there? What better way for CONVERGENCIA to prove it is still relevant in Yaracuy but to try to win the primary there? What better way for UNT to prove that it is not stuck in Zulia by winning or at least reaching second in Caracas downtown primary?
Again, primaries in Venezuela are not the “solve it all” tool. We must respect the primacy of certain parties in their areas: Zulia should have a majority of “likely” in UNT as does PJ in Miranda or PV in Carabobo. Thus the importance of a negotiated chunk of representatives that I put at 15 but that could well be as many as 20 or 25 (but never more than 40% of the “likely” otherwise people might get pissed off). UNT, PJ and PV should recognize that if they will get a majority of elected representatives in their fiefdoms, they must make room for at least 1 or 2 from other parties.
All in all a very complex issue but as long as the opposition leadership does not start tackling complex issue in a mature and realistic way, Chavez will remain in office Iran style and each time it will be more difficult to boot him out through peaceful means. Assuming that this is still possible, but that is yet another story.
This being said, right now I am very pessimistic about a nice arrangement on this complex matter and I am certainly not holding my breath at been consulted on the matter even though I have proven that I know more about electoral projects than many of those who grace of their presence the screen Globovison, while it lasts. But heck, it was fun to write this and I cannot wait until I can say “I told you”!
Note: I limited this discussion to National Assembly elections which should come next year. Though if it were up to me the opposition should have started long ago a recall election drive on these creeps. But that is also another story. Back to topic, primaries discussion for local council elections would be an even more devilish endavour!
-The end-
Clarines News and Views
I have escaped my daily routine for one week. And again I set my path to “Oriente” though to more civilized areas, as a manner of speech, than the wet lands of the Delta.
My first stop at lunch time was Clarines, old village of Venezuela noteworthy for having one of the best examples of early Venezuelan churches, simple as it corresponded to a rather poor colony of Spain, and fortified as the natives were restless for decades and would have none of the Spaniards religion or way of life. Clarines has always been in my memory, since as a kid my parents would take us at least once a year for extended holiday in the Cumana area where they had plenty of friends left before they moved to Caracas. I remember barely more than a toddler how empty of any comfort was the road, still in large part a dirt road, without any place to stop for a decent drink, and few gas stations so you needed to be watchful. In those days every Venezuelan had a roll of toilet paper in his car.
Although I have been to Margarita and Cumana since those years, I had not taken the road for more than two decades and this year I decided to make the trip as part of my brief vacation. The Church of Clarines was the same as I recalled, isolated on top of the hill as surrounding dwellings must have been cleared long ago. Still burning under the inclement sun of Clarines who is seared in my memory as one of the hottest places I knew. No wonder, we did stop always around noon time as it was the only place between Caracas and Barcelona where parents could let their kids run for a few minutes. As such Clarines is for me synonymous with bright sun and exhausting heat.
Then Clarines was empty. I remember that each time we stopped to visit there was no one on Bolivar Square in front of the church. Maybe a stray dog, that was all. Around ,the original adobe houses were shut tight, though now I think it was probably due to the siesta. One year they had opened a little bodega, with near empty shelves but where to our great surprise we could find some cold “uvita Grapette”, my favorite drink as it left my tongue purple.
Plaza Bolivar was as empty as I recalled, except for a couple of lovers on a bench. It has been redone nicely, taking advantage of the old trees planted a century or more ago. But the surrounding houses remained shut at noon, not a single café or joint in what is perhaps one of the highest points of Colonial architecture of Venezuela. The Bolivarian Revolution has no business to do with that history, even if its sturdy construction is a silent witness of the resistance of the natives so loved, we are told, by Chavez. From the road you would never know that you were driving past Clarines who probably received its latest care under the presidency of Luisinchi, who was born there.
The Church was closed. It looked rather worn out, more than what I recall. Though it must still be in use on Sundays. If the Plaza Bolivar was neat, the area surrounding the church was in dire need of a good sweep. All in all it was rather anguishing to observe the solitude of the Church, the
only building of the square surroundings in need of a facelift, in need of a mere cleaning up.
The rest of Clarines has changed. The top of the hill might still be lonely without shops or places to have a drink but it has been scrubbed up some and two streets have been returned to an
ancient cobble stone look. Far distant Colombians have arrived too, as they have arrived everywhere in Venezuela. If I remember Clarines as a totally noiseless place, this time I will leave with the sound of loud vallenatos coming from some house. And even a Colombian luncheonette, which was closed anyway.
But what has changed the most was the lower town, the one we entered first after we had left the main highway. This are did not really exist then but today it is a tawdry main street of stores and bustling activity in spite of the heat, where the only stores modern and clean are the now inescapable Movistar and Digitel dedicated to cellular phones and calling cabins. The new city has its back to its past, completely, full of PSUV slogans and personality cult to Chavez accompanying the local rojo-rojito potentate, whereas the hill is rather strangely scarce in those. If Clarines was in my mind close to Casas Muertas, today it is a new small town, probably rescued from oblivion by the need to provide with services the busy road and the nearby monstrous petrochemical complex. I wonder what the new people of Clarines think of their venerable church.
But all progress is not negative. After Clarines I did stop for lunch to a very nice place called La Medianidad, I think. The folks who manage it bring to this desertic area their cheeses produced elsewhere. And they opened a very busy restaurant where I had this wonderful cachapa below, accompanied with one of the best “papelon con limon” I ever had. Such luxury would not even have been a dream when I traveled first the old dirt road. (1)
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1)Cachapa is a corn pancake served with a generous portion of cheese “queso de mano”. Papelon con limon is lemon juice sweetened with the sugar cane juice solidified in brown cones after the first pressing of the cane. The only sugar available in Venezuela for centuries before refined white sugar was developed. It is difficult to have a more Venezuelan meal than the one in the picture.
As usual, click on the pictures to enlarge.
-The end-
My first stop at lunch time was Clarines, old village of Venezuela noteworthy for having one of the best examples of early Venezuelan churches, simple as it corresponded to a rather poor colony of Spain, and fortified as the natives were restless for decades and would have none of the Spaniards religion or way of life. Clarines has always been in my memory, since as a kid my parents would take us at least once a year for extended holiday in the Cumana area where they had plenty of friends left before they moved to Caracas. I remember barely more than a toddler how empty of any comfort was the road, still in large part a dirt road, without any place to stop for a decent drink, and few gas stations so you needed to be watchful. In those days every Venezuelan had a roll of toilet paper in his car.
Although I have been to Margarita and Cumana since those years, I had not taken the road for more than two decades and this year I decided to make the trip as part of my brief vacation. The Church of Clarines was the same as I recalled, isolated on top of the hill as surrounding dwellings must have been cleared long ago. Still burning under the inclement sun of Clarines who is seared in my memory as one of the hottest places I knew. No wonder, we did stop always around noon time as it was the only place between Caracas and Barcelona where parents could let their kids run for a few minutes. As such Clarines is for me synonymous with bright sun and exhausting heat.
Then Clarines was empty. I remember that each time we stopped to visit there was no one on Bolivar Square in front of the church. Maybe a stray dog, that was all. Around ,the original adobe houses were shut tight, though now I think it was probably due to the siesta. One year they had opened a little bodega, with near empty shelves but where to our great surprise we could find some cold “uvita Grapette”, my favorite drink as it left my tongue purple.
Plaza Bolivar was as empty as I recalled, except for a couple of lovers on a bench. It has been redone nicely, taking advantage of the old trees planted a century or more ago. But the surrounding houses remained shut at noon, not a single café or joint in what is perhaps one of the highest points of Colonial architecture of Venezuela. The Bolivarian Revolution has no business to do with that history, even if its sturdy construction is a silent witness of the resistance of the natives so loved, we are told, by Chavez. From the road you would never know that you were driving past Clarines who probably received its latest care under the presidency of Luisinchi, who was born there.
The Church was closed. It looked rather worn out, more than what I recall. Though it must still be in use on Sundays. If the Plaza Bolivar was neat, the area surrounding the church was in dire need of a good sweep. All in all it was rather anguishing to observe the solitude of the Church, the
only building of the square surroundings in need of a facelift, in need of a mere cleaning up.The rest of Clarines has changed. The top of the hill might still be lonely without shops or places to have a drink but it has been scrubbed up some and two streets have been returned to an
ancient cobble stone look. Far distant Colombians have arrived too, as they have arrived everywhere in Venezuela. If I remember Clarines as a totally noiseless place, this time I will leave with the sound of loud vallenatos coming from some house. And even a Colombian luncheonette, which was closed anyway.But what has changed the most was the lower town, the one we entered first after we had left the main highway. This are did not really exist then but today it is a tawdry main street of stores and bustling activity in spite of the heat, where the only stores modern and clean are the now inescapable Movistar and Digitel dedicated to cellular phones and calling cabins. The new city has its back to its past, completely, full of PSUV slogans and personality cult to Chavez accompanying the local rojo-rojito potentate, whereas the hill is rather strangely scarce in those. If Clarines was in my mind close to Casas Muertas, today it is a new small town, probably rescued from oblivion by the need to provide with services the busy road and the nearby monstrous petrochemical complex. I wonder what the new people of Clarines think of their venerable church.
But all progress is not negative. After Clarines I did stop for lunch to a very nice place called La Medianidad, I think. The folks who manage it bring to this desertic area their cheeses produced elsewhere. And they opened a very busy restaurant where I had this wonderful cachapa below, accompanied with one of the best “papelon con limon” I ever had. Such luxury would not even have been a dream when I traveled first the old dirt road. (1)
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1)Cachapa is a corn pancake served with a generous portion of cheese “queso de mano”. Papelon con limon is lemon juice sweetened with the sugar cane juice solidified in brown cones after the first pressing of the cane. The only sugar available in Venezuela for centuries before refined white sugar was developed. It is difficult to have a more Venezuelan meal than the one in the picture.
As usual, click on the pictures to enlarge.
-The end-
Der Spiegel über Venezuela
Hier könnt Ihr einen Artikel des Spiegels über die wirtschatliche und zum Teil soziale Lage Venezuelas lesen.
Danke an Bridge.
Danke an Bridge.
Iran early lessons
OK, someone must start speculating on the consequences of what is keeping us riveted on the news this week.
Established Facts
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might have won the election but whatever the real margin of victory he might have got, his victory is desperately tarnished. He is a lame duck president from almost election day. It is to be doubted that he will finish his mandate as if nothing.
After 30 years of of Islamic Revolution, the model is exhausted, as any undemocratic model always gets exhausted. It is the law of history: it can last as much as the 70 something years of the USSR or the 12 years of the 1000 years Reich, but authoritarian models always exhaust themselves one way or the other.
The information system as we know it has irremediably changed.
Implications
I would not dare to speculate on Iran's fate: I simply do not know enough about it. I always had a gut feeling that an Ayatollah regime was no good news and I was one of the very people in my very leftist college of the time to be scared by Khomeini. All my colleagues were simply pickled pink that the Shah was out, regardless of who kicked him out. I was frowned upon but time has proved me right.
At the very least what we see going on in Iran is a major rift in the power structure, sore and cranky after 30 years of doing as it pleased. The end? Who knows. Maybe a pact between factions to avoid the regime to fall? An extension at best. Maybe a civil war? It would not last long: with the Basji and the militant country side repression will eventually win a temporary hollow victory and the new Iran will be a mess as new forms of internal terrorism will appear without a doubt. Will a FARC like situation that will never end develop? With all the rivaling interest in that area of the world we can be sure that there will be enough people willing to let and help the Iran situation fester.
What the Ayatollahs did not foresee was that the education they gave to many Iranians was going to fire back at them so badly. What we could call already the Twitter revolution has changed the political dealing all across the world. What we sensed as early as during the unsuccessful Dean Internet presidential campaign in the US has now become a full fledged mass movement able to unseat a regime. Maybe not Iran today but a lot of other countries have been served notice.
What happened? Massification of Internet in urban centers has met and created a generation of technologically educated youths. Maybe not that educated in other aspects such as political orthodoxy, but educated in the ways of the world where through Twitter and Facebook they can date as they cannot date in the streets. And this is not a cheesy example when you know that young women in Tehran streets are routinely asked by the Basji to tighten their scarf/tchador, not hold hands, etc... To these people Facebook was a taste of freedom that prepared them excellently for what is happening today in Tehran.
The shift to the Internet as a major source of information is now complete. We were not quite aware of it and we would have never expected Iran to tell it to us, so crudely, almost. Even this blogger only got to Twitter two days ago. That does not mean that newspapers are dead: few bloggers will ever be able to do and to write the deep research needed on many issues, a depth that can only be offered by newspapers, not even TV news too worried about the now, right now ratings war. A major realignment in the media is to be expected everywhere in the world.
And thus we come to the real objective of this post: what will Chavez (and China, and Belarus, and Cuba) do to stop Internet, text messaging, Twitter, etc....? I do not know what they are going to do though it is predictable that major Internet progress in China and Cuba is now going to be less likely. But can Chavez put the genie back in the box? Right now at Miraflores they know, without a doubt, that closing Globovision will simply accelerate the development of alternative Internet media that can be even more dangerous as it cannot be easily controlled or sanctioned for spreading lies as needed. We are back to the era of the samizdat. Chavismo is simply faced with the daunting task of a massive media control of which Globovision might be the easiest part.
The ones who have a clearer panorama now are the opposition political leaders: they have a few months, not too many but a few, to organize a network system that will come in handy at election time and even better, at repression time. Internet maybe "no sube cerros" but SMS and phone based mail or Twitter "si puede subir cerros". (sube cerros, Venezuelan equivalent of will it play in Peoria? If your program reaches the extensive uphill shanty towns of Caracas, cerros, your chances of being elected increase.)
-The end-
Established Facts
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might have won the election but whatever the real margin of victory he might have got, his victory is desperately tarnished. He is a lame duck president from almost election day. It is to be doubted that he will finish his mandate as if nothing.
After 30 years of of Islamic Revolution, the model is exhausted, as any undemocratic model always gets exhausted. It is the law of history: it can last as much as the 70 something years of the USSR or the 12 years of the 1000 years Reich, but authoritarian models always exhaust themselves one way or the other.
The information system as we know it has irremediably changed.
Implications
I would not dare to speculate on Iran's fate: I simply do not know enough about it. I always had a gut feeling that an Ayatollah regime was no good news and I was one of the very people in my very leftist college of the time to be scared by Khomeini. All my colleagues were simply pickled pink that the Shah was out, regardless of who kicked him out. I was frowned upon but time has proved me right.
At the very least what we see going on in Iran is a major rift in the power structure, sore and cranky after 30 years of doing as it pleased. The end? Who knows. Maybe a pact between factions to avoid the regime to fall? An extension at best. Maybe a civil war? It would not last long: with the Basji and the militant country side repression will eventually win a temporary hollow victory and the new Iran will be a mess as new forms of internal terrorism will appear without a doubt. Will a FARC like situation that will never end develop? With all the rivaling interest in that area of the world we can be sure that there will be enough people willing to let and help the Iran situation fester.
What the Ayatollahs did not foresee was that the education they gave to many Iranians was going to fire back at them so badly. What we could call already the Twitter revolution has changed the political dealing all across the world. What we sensed as early as during the unsuccessful Dean Internet presidential campaign in the US has now become a full fledged mass movement able to unseat a regime. Maybe not Iran today but a lot of other countries have been served notice.
What happened? Massification of Internet in urban centers has met and created a generation of technologically educated youths. Maybe not that educated in other aspects such as political orthodoxy, but educated in the ways of the world where through Twitter and Facebook they can date as they cannot date in the streets. And this is not a cheesy example when you know that young women in Tehran streets are routinely asked by the Basji to tighten their scarf/tchador, not hold hands, etc... To these people Facebook was a taste of freedom that prepared them excellently for what is happening today in Tehran.
The shift to the Internet as a major source of information is now complete. We were not quite aware of it and we would have never expected Iran to tell it to us, so crudely, almost. Even this blogger only got to Twitter two days ago. That does not mean that newspapers are dead: few bloggers will ever be able to do and to write the deep research needed on many issues, a depth that can only be offered by newspapers, not even TV news too worried about the now, right now ratings war. A major realignment in the media is to be expected everywhere in the world.
And thus we come to the real objective of this post: what will Chavez (and China, and Belarus, and Cuba) do to stop Internet, text messaging, Twitter, etc....? I do not know what they are going to do though it is predictable that major Internet progress in China and Cuba is now going to be less likely. But can Chavez put the genie back in the box? Right now at Miraflores they know, without a doubt, that closing Globovision will simply accelerate the development of alternative Internet media that can be even more dangerous as it cannot be easily controlled or sanctioned for spreading lies as needed. We are back to the era of the samizdat. Chavismo is simply faced with the daunting task of a massive media control of which Globovision might be the easiest part.
The ones who have a clearer panorama now are the opposition political leaders: they have a few months, not too many but a few, to organize a network system that will come in handy at election time and even better, at repression time. Internet maybe "no sube cerros" but SMS and phone based mail or Twitter "si puede subir cerros". (sube cerros, Venezuelan equivalent of will it play in Peoria? If your program reaches the extensive uphill shanty towns of Caracas, cerros, your chances of being elected increase.)
-The end-
Le Monde duly notes the love of Chavez and Fundamentalist Iran
I did not want to waste your time on the more than expected declarations of support from Chavez to Ahmadinejad (NOTE: Chavez to Ahmadinejerk does not mean Venezuela to Iran).
But Center Left major paper Le Monde did take notice that not only Chavez is about the only Western leader in the word to come strongly on Ahmadinejad side (well, he has been cheating electorally since at least 2003) but that this support should not be surprising and should be considered ominous. That for sure will play nice among the French leftist intelligentsia (and among the wuss right too). It never ceases to amaze me how Chavez has an ability to stick his foot in mouth at the very worst moment. But thanks to oil until now he was able to make limited come backs. Let's see how that works out now.
-The end-
But Center Left major paper Le Monde did take notice that not only Chavez is about the only Western leader in the word to come strongly on Ahmadinejad side (well, he has been cheating electorally since at least 2003) but that this support should not be surprising and should be considered ominous. That for sure will play nice among the French leftist intelligentsia (and among the wuss right too). It never ceases to amaze me how Chavez has an ability to stick his foot in mouth at the very worst moment. But thanks to oil until now he was able to make limited come backs. Let's see how that works out now.
-The end-
Red shirts are busy
The chavista red shirt onslaught seems to be sharpening its pitch. After all, weeks and weeks of
attacks, fanned by Globovision as the source of all evil, have a way to self generate excessive stimulation in those quarters.
Yesterday we saw many concerted attacks of the sort, worthy of any self respecting totalitarian regime. I chose to show only one, the attack on Miranda State's governor's office by the mayor of of Los Teques, Alirio Mendoza. The pictures around say it all. My only question is how come nothing will happen to this mayor promoting violence and using public employees for that DURING working hours, while Globovision will be closed any time soon just because Rafael Poleo did not control his big mouth for a few seconds? Does
chavismo ignore that these things do go around the world? The shirts might be red but this is fascism and the language is clear: those who wear the swastika in their heart are those covering the walls with it.
By the way, just for the record, grand parents of governor Capriles Radonsky died in the Holocaust. So we can mark that down as yet more chavista antisemitism.
Chavismo will not stop at anything to weaken elected opposition officials last November. Rosales, Maracaibo mayor is in exile; Ledezma, Caracas mayor, has been stripped of any function; Governors Perez of Zulia, Morel Rodriguez of Nueva Esparta and Salas Feo of Carabobo have lost control of ports, airports and highways; and now it is the turn of the two last remaining governors with still some authority. The attack Capriles Radonski in Miranda has restarted and in the most ignominious way one can think of.
-The end-
attacks, fanned by Globovision as the source of all evil, have a way to self generate excessive stimulation in those quarters.Yesterday we saw many concerted attacks of the sort, worthy of any self respecting totalitarian regime. I chose to show only one, the attack on Miranda State's governor's office by the mayor of of Los Teques, Alirio Mendoza. The pictures around say it all. My only question is how come nothing will happen to this mayor promoting violence and using public employees for that DURING working hours, while Globovision will be closed any time soon just because Rafael Poleo did not control his big mouth for a few seconds? Does
chavismo ignore that these things do go around the world? The shirts might be red but this is fascism and the language is clear: those who wear the swastika in their heart are those covering the walls with it.By the way, just for the record, grand parents of governor Capriles Radonsky died in the Holocaust. So we can mark that down as yet more chavista antisemitism.
Chavismo will not stop at anything to weaken elected opposition officials last November. Rosales, Maracaibo mayor is in exile; Ledezma, Caracas mayor, has been stripped of any function; Governors Perez of Zulia, Morel Rodriguez of Nueva Esparta and Salas Feo of Carabobo have lost control of ports, airports and highways; and now it is the turn of the two last remaining governors with still some authority. The attack Capriles Radonski in Miranda has restarted and in the most ignominious way one can think of.
-The end-
I caved in to Twitter
Looking at what is happening in Iran, the Luddite in me has decided to modernize some and join Twitter. I have the feeling that we will need to rely on it a lot in a future nearer to us than what we may think. If you are interested you can follow me at @danielduquenal. If you are expecting personal stuff such as me walking the dog, forget it. I will use it only as an RSS type for some posts, to summarize them in 140 characters (now, that will be a challenge for me!). And for some stuff that might not make it to CNN in the next hour, or ever. In other words, I am not the one that will crowd your twitter mail box.
-The end-
-The end-
Chavez supporters paint Nazi symbols on walls of governor's building
(more pictures in the "paint" link)
Chavez supporters led by Alirio Mendoza, the mayor of the municipality where Los Teques is, surrounded the building of the Miranda state government, ruled by the opposition. They then proceeded to paint swastiskas on the building walls. This is particularly tasteless: the governor's great-grandparents had been murdered by Nazis.
The Chavez supporters (including Chavista mayor) were claiming governor Capriles Radonsky, one of the few opposition governors, had eliminated the Missions in Miranda. This is not true, those missions are controlled by the national government and they are having problems exclusively because of the national government, but then the Chavez mobs simply do what their leaders order them to do.
Anyway: what was the point of those criminals to paint those swastikas? Do they realise what they are doing? Why did the police do nothing about that? What is going to happen to that Chavez mayor who led that action?
The Chavez supporters (including Chavista mayor) were claiming governor Capriles Radonsky, one of the few opposition governors, had eliminated the Missions in Miranda. This is not true, those missions are controlled by the national government and they are having problems exclusively because of the national government, but then the Chavez mobs simply do what their leaders order them to do.
Anyway: what was the point of those criminals to paint those swastikas? Do they realise what they are doing? Why did the police do nothing about that? What is going to happen to that Chavez mayor who led that action?
Globovision pays its fine? Double it!
These past few months chavismo has been prodigal with its trademarks of unfairness and thuggery. Today we got three more!!!
The fine is doubled. Just as Globovision celebrated that it collected enough money from its devoted audience the SENIAT announced that the fine had been doubled. Just like that. Now it will be more than 4 million US dollars, for that specific fine.
A new lawsuit is opened. And a double jeopardy at that, on another angle on the already prosecuted famous Rafael Poleo visit at Globovision when Poleo reminded Chavez on how Mussolini ended his life.
Globovion lawyer to be indicted. Perla Jaimes is the legal counsel of Globovision, the head of a very busy office these last few years. She was charged today on obstruction to justice for the mere crime of having made sure the "Miranda rights" were given to Zuloaga when his home was searched. It is all on TV, her refusing to let the state to search the house until a proper search warrant was produced. They eventually produced it and they were allowed in. She did her job, something duly protected in the laws. That assuming that laws were actually observed in bolibanana.
You can make your own conclusions. If you need help to make up your mind about how the justice system works in Venezuela I would suggest that you seek what has happened to all the corruption accusations duly documented and reported on the press and media on Diosdado Cabello (heading the Globovision closing task) or Di Martino, two name the most prominent recent ones.
-The end-
The fine is doubled. Just as Globovision celebrated that it collected enough money from its devoted audience the SENIAT announced that the fine had been doubled. Just like that. Now it will be more than 4 million US dollars, for that specific fine.
A new lawsuit is opened. And a double jeopardy at that, on another angle on the already prosecuted famous Rafael Poleo visit at Globovision when Poleo reminded Chavez on how Mussolini ended his life.
Globovion lawyer to be indicted. Perla Jaimes is the legal counsel of Globovision, the head of a very busy office these last few years. She was charged today on obstruction to justice for the mere crime of having made sure the "Miranda rights" were given to Zuloaga when his home was searched. It is all on TV, her refusing to let the state to search the house until a proper search warrant was produced. They eventually produced it and they were allowed in. She did her job, something duly protected in the laws. That assuming that laws were actually observed in bolibanana.
You can make your own conclusions. If you need help to make up your mind about how the justice system works in Venezuela I would suggest that you seek what has happened to all the corruption accusations duly documented and reported on the press and media on Diosdado Cabello (heading the Globovision closing task) or Di Martino, two name the most prominent recent ones.
-The end-
Claudio Farias of Caracas Metro to be fired?
I wish I could use La Fontaine more in this blog but he is basically untranslatable. The Fable I have in mind today is "Les Grenouilles qui demandent un roi", where a whole bunch of frogs decide not to be a democracy anymore and ask Jupiter to send them a king. He sends them a pacific frog but the gang gets bored with such a pushover king and ask for a new one. So he sends a crane who starts eating them, warning the frogs not to complain that the next king could be way worse.
Come to think of it this is pretty much the story of Venezuela...
I remember this poem because it does not allow me to be fully happy at the rumored firing of Claudio Farias, the president of Caracas Metro. Apparently his incompetence and political speeches since he took over in January have been too much, even for chavismo hard core. I would be tempted for once to congratulate the regime for a rare good decision but then again it was already a bad decision in January and we do not know who will replace him. I shall hold my praise.
-The end-
Come to think of it this is pretty much the story of Venezuela...
I remember this poem because it does not allow me to be fully happy at the rumored firing of Claudio Farias, the president of Caracas Metro. Apparently his incompetence and political speeches since he took over in January have been too much, even for chavismo hard core. I would be tempted for once to congratulate the regime for a rare good decision but then again it was already a bad decision in January and we do not know who will replace him. I shall hold my praise.
-The end-
When the Caracas Metro is just a tinker toy for some chavista apparatchik
Some days when I see how out of touch with the common folk chavismo is becoming I get my hopes up. Surely, once looting is considered, a government whose plans for the country cannot go beyond Mercal and free aspirin cannot last that long. The case I have at hand is a double fold treat for you: corrupt incompetents at the Caracas Subway and plain corruption at the Caracas cable car (but that for a following post).
You will forgive me if I go into a very long post but the details are important here as Caracas will have to live forever with the consequences.
How the design of Metro Line 5 is changed as the crisis keeps evolving?
The Caracas subway system is in dire need of expansion, the more so that the centralization policies of Chavez are going to keep increasing the population of Caracas out of any measure. It is to be noted that in 10 years of rule Chavez has only inaugurated a short segment of 3 metro stations, all duly planned and contracted before he took office. We can also count an extension of Line 3 with 4 stations still not working fully (I think one is not open at all). For the record the other 38 stations were opened by 4 presidents, that is, an average of 9 stations by 5 year term, and all of these presidents with way less resources than Chavez has had.
But I am not going to get into the details on how incompetent chavismo has been in managing and building public transportation in Caracas and its far distant suburbia: I would need a full blog devoted to the topic. Instead, the president of Caracas Metro since last January, Claudio Farias, gave us this week a perfect symbol on all that is wrong with chavismo, as it is getting into its 11th year or "planification".
The work on line 5 has been advancing slowly. So slowly in fact that now that chavismo has run out of money. Seeing that Caracas is not voting for Chavez anymore, he is looking for ways to save money and screw us along the road. One simple way to do that is to remove two subway stations out of line 5.
Now, you can argue that well, we are in time of crisis, these stations could be built later, it is more important to do at least the line, and whatever other reasons as we find in countries even slightly less dysfunctional than Venezuela. But when you read the words of Claudio Farias you know that nothing of the sort was considered, that some late night in Miraflores, desperately looking for corners to cut, Chavez and his minions just decided to cut off two metro stations. I am putting the words in Spanish first, with the (sic) added by El Universal and then my translation.
The first thing that Claudio misses is the original purpose of Line 5 , probably already under planning by the time Chavez was preparing his 1992 coup. Then Claudio was in all likelihood a small time neighborhood thug, a time from which he kept his speech ways. If you look at the Subway map above you will notice immediately the East West direction, to which lateral valleys are connected. The geology dictates that but the uncontrolled and unplanned growth makes this natural handicap a disaster. Note: line 5 is line 4 on this "official map" but chavismo loves to change names and numbers.
Soon after Line 1 was was opened there was an interesting phenomenon observed: whenever an "accident" happened in the Metro, everybody was late to work or for home. That is, a single East West line was very vulnerable to, say, a suicide, and all Caracas would be affected. Soon it became obvious that Line 1 was insufficient and that is when plans for line 5 and a still distant third parallel line were accelerated. It might seem crazy in a way to make so many parallel lines but the human circulation justifies them perfectly well. If you doubt me just drive around Caracas between 4 and 7 PM, East West, or North South blocked by East West, and get back to me.
The second thing is that Claudio totally misses the structure of the neighborhood where he decided to suppress a station. This is better explained looking at the map below lifted from El Nacional.
Claudio might be Metro director but he obviously does not take the subway to go home at night, and certainly not through almost any of the stations featured in this graph.
First, why Bello Campo should not be closed
True, Bello Campo RIGHT NOW would not be a major Caracas station, but that does not mean it is not important contrary to what our Amateur Metro president thinks. Chacao is another extremely busy station at rush hour and Bello Campo would be a nice option for the harassed office workers. And Bello Campo is close from a major shopping Mall and other commercial areas that depend on Chacao station, causing a lot of traffic congestion. Last but not least Bello Campo is one of the few neighborhoods in an area where there is possible business development that would happen for sure once a subway station is built, releasing the pressure on small areas like historical Chacao to survive as inhabited areas. Not to mention that Bello Campo would be next door to a lower class wedge between Altamira and Bello Campo! Are those not supposed to be chavista voters?
Chacaito Las Mercedes now
He says that the only folks that go Las Mercedes are rich people hitting the dining/party circuit. I cannot think of a crassest statement, of a more horrifying nouveau-riche-let-them-eat- cake reason. What about all the waiters, the cooks, the bartenders, the garbage collectors, the sales clerk, etc, etc that work in Las Mercedes? Are they not entitled to a fast subway ride too?
What we see here is a got-fat Claudio Farias who now has a chauffeur, a Metro assigned car and possibly body guards and even a police or two on motorbikes stopping traffic to let him go through while the hoi poloi watches. This is how low the chavismo servants have fallen, how far from the needs of the people. Surely they will notice, won't they?
Note on Farias. He used to work with Diosdado Cabello who brought him to the Metro once he was unseated in Miranda State. He is a nobody but he is very willing to do all the dirty work and to suck up wherever it is needed. If we consider the amount of corruption reports on the Cabello tenure at Miranda's helm we can also assume that Claudio is a a "trusted" adviser of Cabello and thus a corrupt individual. The Internet on a quick glance reveals the following:
He used to be a Metro employee, even holding a station management, according to pro Chavez ABN. The lack of details leaves us to think that he went as far as he would have gone, thus not great management prospect to direct the Metro alone. But let's assume that I am wrong.
His mission is clear: further introduce politics into the Metro, as for example this inauguration of a Che Guevara center for Metro employees.
His initial promises that all would be better came to a crash landing within three months of his tenure. Apparently there is a witch hunt inside the Metro where people not solidly rojo-rojito are removed, and it started with his arrival.
His mismanagement goes from pretending to sign contracts that no one is clear about to organize the system in such an unsafe way that 80 Metro depending bus burnt a few days ago. Some people rumor that the fire was deliberate because these stocked bus were out of service due to very deficient maintenance and they wanted to avoid an inquiry. Not to mention possible juicy commissions to replace these buses. Note that he might have done that himself, but clearly he is not controlling his subordinates.
So you see it by yourself, the quality of public servants that Chavez is imposing on us, the kind of people that are making decisions about the future of Caracas. Guess who will pay the bills later? Not them, I can assure you, comfortably ensconced far from where justice can reach them.
-The end-
You will forgive me if I go into a very long post but the details are important here as Caracas will have to live forever with the consequences.
How the design of Metro Line 5 is changed as the crisis keeps evolving?
The Caracas subway system is in dire need of expansion, the more so that the centralization policies of Chavez are going to keep increasing the population of Caracas out of any measure. It is to be noted that in 10 years of rule Chavez has only inaugurated a short segment of 3 metro stations, all duly planned and contracted before he took office. We can also count an extension of Line 3 with 4 stations still not working fully (I think one is not open at all). For the record the other 38 stations were opened by 4 presidents, that is, an average of 9 stations by 5 year term, and all of these presidents with way less resources than Chavez has had.
But I am not going to get into the details on how incompetent chavismo has been in managing and building public transportation in Caracas and its far distant suburbia: I would need a full blog devoted to the topic. Instead, the president of Caracas Metro since last January, Claudio Farias, gave us this week a perfect symbol on all that is wrong with chavismo, as it is getting into its 11th year or "planification".
The work on line 5 has been advancing slowly. So slowly in fact that now that chavismo has run out of money. Seeing that Caracas is not voting for Chavez anymore, he is looking for ways to save money and screw us along the road. One simple way to do that is to remove two subway stations out of line 5.
Now, you can argue that well, we are in time of crisis, these stations could be built later, it is more important to do at least the line, and whatever other reasons as we find in countries even slightly less dysfunctional than Venezuela. But when you read the words of Claudio Farias you know that nothing of the sort was considered, that some late night in Miraflores, desperately looking for corners to cut, Chavez and his minions just decided to cut off two metro stations. I am putting the words in Spanish first, with the (sic) added by El Universal and then my translation.
"La línea 5 ha sufrido quizás un retraso. Pero las estamos replanteando, pues nos parece que es una línea que no tiene ningún sentido"; "Esa es una línea que beneficia a la oligarquía (...) Las Mercedes, hermano, la Principal de Las Mercedes va a tener dos estaciones en la propuesta cuando todo el mundo que va a Las Mercedes va (sic) en su carro a los restaurantes. ¿Se necesita que la Principal de Las Mercedes tenga dos estaciones? Ni siquiera, La Hoyada y Capitolio"; "La estación Bello Campo que está al lado del Gustavo Herrera. ¿A quién beneficia esa estación cuando tiene al lado Chacao y Altamira? Nosotros estamos planteando que esa estación sea eliminada. Esa estación no beneficiaría a nadie, en lo absoluto. Ya se hizo el estudio".There is so much wrong in this that feeble minds would be at a loss as to where to start. But I know my history, I know how traffic is in Caracas and I know how to use the Metro even if it has become an exercise I avoid as much as possible, if anythign for the Ali Primera music forced on us.
“Line 5 may have suffered a delay [talk about an understatement!]. But we are questioning it, because it seems to us that this line makes no sense”; “This is a line that benefits the oligarchy (…) Las Mercedes, brother, the Principal [avenue] of Las Mercedes is going to have two stops in the proposal when every one that goes to Las Mercedes go (sic) in his car to the restaurants. Does La Principal de Las Mercedes need two stations? Not even La Hoyada and Capitolio.”; “The Bello Campo Station that is next to the Gustavo Herrera [famous high school] who does it benefit when it has nearby Chacao and Altamira? We want this station to be eliminated. This station will benefit no one, absolutely. We have done the study” [a study which is nowhere to be found by the way]
The first thing that Claudio misses is the original purpose of Line 5 , probably already under planning by the time Chavez was preparing his 1992 coup. Then Claudio was in all likelihood a small time neighborhood thug, a time from which he kept his speech ways. If you look at the Subway map above you will notice immediately the East West direction, to which lateral valleys are connected. The geology dictates that but the uncontrolled and unplanned growth makes this natural handicap a disaster. Note: line 5 is line 4 on this "official map" but chavismo loves to change names and numbers.
Soon after Line 1 was was opened there was an interesting phenomenon observed: whenever an "accident" happened in the Metro, everybody was late to work or for home. That is, a single East West line was very vulnerable to, say, a suicide, and all Caracas would be affected. Soon it became obvious that Line 1 was insufficient and that is when plans for line 5 and a still distant third parallel line were accelerated. It might seem crazy in a way to make so many parallel lines but the human circulation justifies them perfectly well. If you doubt me just drive around Caracas between 4 and 7 PM, East West, or North South blocked by East West, and get back to me.
The second thing is that Claudio totally misses the structure of the neighborhood where he decided to suppress a station. This is better explained looking at the map below lifted from El Nacional.
Claudio might be Metro director but he obviously does not take the subway to go home at night, and certainly not through almost any of the stations featured in this graph.
First, why Bello Campo should not be closed
True, Bello Campo RIGHT NOW would not be a major Caracas station, but that does not mean it is not important contrary to what our Amateur Metro president thinks. Chacao is another extremely busy station at rush hour and Bello Campo would be a nice option for the harassed office workers. And Bello Campo is close from a major shopping Mall and other commercial areas that depend on Chacao station, causing a lot of traffic congestion. Last but not least Bello Campo is one of the few neighborhoods in an area where there is possible business development that would happen for sure once a subway station is built, releasing the pressure on small areas like historical Chacao to survive as inhabited areas. Not to mention that Bello Campo would be next door to a lower class wedge between Altamira and Bello Campo! Are those not supposed to be chavista voters?
Chacaito Las Mercedes now
- Chacaito is the busiest station of the area, maybe Caracas, because form there leave all the buses that go South, to Middle Class Prados del Este as well as to Lower Class Las Minas. As such the Chacaito area is usually collapsed half of the day by buses parked in double and triple file.
- One or two of the Las Mercedes stations will pick up these bus traffic leaving Chacaito only for bus routes for Northern areas of Caracas or out of Caracas.
- If Las Mercedesi s eliminated, one of the arguments of Claudio falls down because the distance between Bello Monte and Tamanaco would be simply too long.
- Also the Principal de Las Mercedes is long enough to deserve two stations. Depending on where exactly the station is located the La Hoyada Capitolio dimwit statement falls flat on its face.
- South of Chacaito there is a lot of business and commerce and a Las Mercedes station would be a nice option for the folks working there, further decongesting Chacaito.
He says that the only folks that go Las Mercedes are rich people hitting the dining/party circuit. I cannot think of a crassest statement, of a more horrifying nouveau-riche-let-them-eat- cake reason. What about all the waiters, the cooks, the bartenders, the garbage collectors, the sales clerk, etc, etc that work in Las Mercedes? Are they not entitled to a fast subway ride too?
What we see here is a got-fat Claudio Farias who now has a chauffeur, a Metro assigned car and possibly body guards and even a police or two on motorbikes stopping traffic to let him go through while the hoi poloi watches. This is how low the chavismo servants have fallen, how far from the needs of the people. Surely they will notice, won't they?
Note on Farias. He used to work with Diosdado Cabello who brought him to the Metro once he was unseated in Miranda State. He is a nobody but he is very willing to do all the dirty work and to suck up wherever it is needed. If we consider the amount of corruption reports on the Cabello tenure at Miranda's helm we can also assume that Claudio is a a "trusted" adviser of Cabello and thus a corrupt individual. The Internet on a quick glance reveals the following:
He used to be a Metro employee, even holding a station management, according to pro Chavez ABN. The lack of details leaves us to think that he went as far as he would have gone, thus not great management prospect to direct the Metro alone. But let's assume that I am wrong.
His mission is clear: further introduce politics into the Metro, as for example this inauguration of a Che Guevara center for Metro employees.
His initial promises that all would be better came to a crash landing within three months of his tenure. Apparently there is a witch hunt inside the Metro where people not solidly rojo-rojito are removed, and it started with his arrival.
His mismanagement goes from pretending to sign contracts that no one is clear about to organize the system in such an unsafe way that 80 Metro depending bus burnt a few days ago. Some people rumor that the fire was deliberate because these stocked bus were out of service due to very deficient maintenance and they wanted to avoid an inquiry. Not to mention possible juicy commissions to replace these buses. Note that he might have done that himself, but clearly he is not controlling his subordinates.
So you see it by yourself, the quality of public servants that Chavez is imposing on us, the kind of people that are making decisions about the future of Caracas. Guess who will pay the bills later? Not them, I can assure you, comfortably ensconced far from where justice can reach them.
-The end-
Chavez horse-riding with dead Bolivar
My sources say this painting can be found in a hall at the Venezuelan Supreme Court.* For those who are no Venezuela experts: the one riding at the front of the horse is independence hero (or semi-God) Simón Bolívar. The one clinging to him is current president of Venezuela, Hugo Chávez. In the background you can see Chavez's supporters.
Here you can find another post (in Spanish and English) about the sick personality cult in Venezuela.
* If someone thinks my sources are lying: I really don't think so, in the other post I linked to here there are some other pictures I personally took, one of them in a public post office.
Here you can find another post (in Spanish and English) about the sick personality cult in Venezuela.
* If someone thinks my sources are lying: I really don't think so, in the other post I linked to here there are some other pictures I personally took, one of them in a public post office.
Ahmadinejerk retains office, so to speak
[UPDATED]
I am fascinated by the reactions people are having at what seems to be the massive electoral fraud taking place in Iran.
An easy joke heard of course is that the CNE opened offices in Teheran. But the Iranian theocracy has long known how to make free and fair election an impossible goal; in fact Iran invented some of the CNE tricks used today in Venezuela, such as the "inhabilitaciones" where a cheap ayatollah, Clodosvaldo Ruffian, receives the orders as to whom can run in an election, without any judicial supervision.
Others are simply shocked, SHOCKED, that the so obvious triumph of Mousavi was not accepted. Forgetting first that Mousavi was no gift to democracy himself. Forgetting that Iran was a theocracy. What did they expect?
The Islamic Republic of Iran is a theocracy, never forget that. And as such it is a milder variation of totalitarianism in that for faith reasons people, many people at least, are more than willing to accept ways that are close to a totalitarian way of life. Or has any of you forgotten that gay teenagers are hung? That women are forced into second rank status by the mere obligation of the tchador? That women caught in adultery risk their lives? That the regime has no qualms suppressing text messaging and Facebook for political purposes? That the real leader of the country is an Ayatollah that called all but by name to vote for Ahmadinejerk? All of that and much more in the name of a religion that got stuck somewhere in the Middle Ages.
The mirror image is also true in that totalitarian regimes are not loath to borrow from religious practices to secure their hold on power. We need not look further than our local neo-totalitarian version busy rewriting Venezuelan history, creating new mythical heroes, creating a religious like calendar with ceremonies and language included.
The Ayatollahs in Iran are never going to relinquish power pacifically. They came to power thirty years ago through an historical accident and an accidental messiah. They have become now for the most part a cast of privileged abusers and they are not going to let go, ever. Through nationalism and religious fervor they have created an accomplice network that dabs in diverse sorts of thuggery and blackmail, such as it happens in any totalitarian regime, though until now the religious values have stopped Iran from going fundamentalist to outright totalitarian.
These are the rewards the West is collecting. 30 years of apology have yielded this electoral result where some claim that the government did not even bother counting ballots. It was first the nasty Shah. Then it was a religion, you know, they have the right to limit basic human rights because of their "tradition". And they need to defend themselves agaisnt Iraq so they need a big army and secrecy. And oil is going to run out so even if they are getting ready for a bomb how can we forbid them to develop nuclear energy. All the guilt of the West helped creating a problem worse than the original evil.
Meanwhile Israel which has a full sense of what is at stake is probably resigning itself in starting a global war by striking Iran first if those wuss in the West do not shape up some.
And meanwhile in Latin America a similar anti democratic fundamentalist process is at play where we hear very similar excuses to justify what should never be justified. If I do not want to detail the parallels on how rogue regimes are allowed to establish themselves through the indolence and/or neglect of their neighbors, I can at least find a silver lining for the readers of this rant: it is going to become much funnier and easier to counter all the Chavez supporters we are going to cross in the future.
This contested Ahmadinejerk election is going to bring further repression in Iran while that country will try to get as close as it can to other rogue countries as its only front. Venezuela is one of those. So now, more than ever, we are all going to be able to use Iran as a litmus test against any pro Chavez creep. Does a leftist revolutionary supports nuclear bombs as a blackmail tool? Is that OK to make electoral fraud a norm to preserve any anti US regime? Is it OK to void basic Human Rights? Do you support gay marriage in the US but find nothing wrong with hanging gay teenagers? And more, much, much more. Have fun!
UPDATE
That Iran thing is going places. Apparently the regime has even cut Twitter, applying the basic strategy in any war, cut enemy lines internal communications as much as possible.
If in English I could not find any confirmation at least Radio France Internationale does say that Mousavi would be under house arrest while many of his campaign managers and party allies would have been arrested outright.
Two reflections here. First, this should be a lesson for the Venezuelan opposition. If Ahmadinejad gets away with such an election, you can be sure that Chavez will take his chances. Thus the opposition needs to work out right now its communication lines, diversify them as much as possible before an increasingly nationalized sector can cut these communications at will.
The second reflection is more negative, if possible. If Ahmadinejerk can afford to make such an electoral claim without offering an audit or anything, it is because he did get many votes, maybe even more than 50%. Inasmuch as it is not palatable for us with our Western sensitivities, people vote mostly in less educated countries on a transactional basis. That is, what is in it for me? In Venezuela many chavista voters do not like, for example, all the giving Chavez spreads abroad. But as long as they keep receiving the little bit that come their way they do not care and keep voting for Chavez. Transpose this phenomenon to Iran where a theocratic system combines religious values, nationalism and the occasional freebie and there you go: a solid 30 to 50% for Ahmadinejerk brand of religious populism (for lack of a better word description).
In regimes like Iran or Venezuela, it is not enough for the opposition to win, it has to be a massive win. As long as the sitting unpalatable government manages to retain between 40 and 45% of decided to fanatic voters, they will have little problem in retaining power even if they know they lost. Fraud works when you are determined and have almost as many voters as the winning side.
The lesson of Iran is clear for the Venezuelan opposition: if they want to become government someday they cannot wait for Chavez to collapse (Ahmadinejerk was reputed to be in serious economic trouble and we see none of that in the result!). The Venezuelan opposition needs electoral unity, a minimum government program that the masses can understand, a fool proof communication system for election day and manning ALL voting stations with enough witnesses to make sure accurate counting takes place. In an age of text messaging even if Chavez closes Globovision tomorrow you can still do a campaign. Or does anyone thinks that the Ayatollahs ever allowed a Globovison like media there?
-The end-
I am fascinated by the reactions people are having at what seems to be the massive electoral fraud taking place in Iran.
An easy joke heard of course is that the CNE opened offices in Teheran. But the Iranian theocracy has long known how to make free and fair election an impossible goal; in fact Iran invented some of the CNE tricks used today in Venezuela, such as the "inhabilitaciones" where a cheap ayatollah, Clodosvaldo Ruffian, receives the orders as to whom can run in an election, without any judicial supervision.
Others are simply shocked, SHOCKED, that the so obvious triumph of Mousavi was not accepted. Forgetting first that Mousavi was no gift to democracy himself. Forgetting that Iran was a theocracy. What did they expect?
The Islamic Republic of Iran is a theocracy, never forget that. And as such it is a milder variation of totalitarianism in that for faith reasons people, many people at least, are more than willing to accept ways that are close to a totalitarian way of life. Or has any of you forgotten that gay teenagers are hung? That women are forced into second rank status by the mere obligation of the tchador? That women caught in adultery risk their lives? That the regime has no qualms suppressing text messaging and Facebook for political purposes? That the real leader of the country is an Ayatollah that called all but by name to vote for Ahmadinejerk? All of that and much more in the name of a religion that got stuck somewhere in the Middle Ages.
The mirror image is also true in that totalitarian regimes are not loath to borrow from religious practices to secure their hold on power. We need not look further than our local neo-totalitarian version busy rewriting Venezuelan history, creating new mythical heroes, creating a religious like calendar with ceremonies and language included.
The Ayatollahs in Iran are never going to relinquish power pacifically. They came to power thirty years ago through an historical accident and an accidental messiah. They have become now for the most part a cast of privileged abusers and they are not going to let go, ever. Through nationalism and religious fervor they have created an accomplice network that dabs in diverse sorts of thuggery and blackmail, such as it happens in any totalitarian regime, though until now the religious values have stopped Iran from going fundamentalist to outright totalitarian.
These are the rewards the West is collecting. 30 years of apology have yielded this electoral result where some claim that the government did not even bother counting ballots. It was first the nasty Shah. Then it was a religion, you know, they have the right to limit basic human rights because of their "tradition". And they need to defend themselves agaisnt Iraq so they need a big army and secrecy. And oil is going to run out so even if they are getting ready for a bomb how can we forbid them to develop nuclear energy. All the guilt of the West helped creating a problem worse than the original evil.
Meanwhile Israel which has a full sense of what is at stake is probably resigning itself in starting a global war by striking Iran first if those wuss in the West do not shape up some.
And meanwhile in Latin America a similar anti democratic fundamentalist process is at play where we hear very similar excuses to justify what should never be justified. If I do not want to detail the parallels on how rogue regimes are allowed to establish themselves through the indolence and/or neglect of their neighbors, I can at least find a silver lining for the readers of this rant: it is going to become much funnier and easier to counter all the Chavez supporters we are going to cross in the future.
This contested Ahmadinejerk election is going to bring further repression in Iran while that country will try to get as close as it can to other rogue countries as its only front. Venezuela is one of those. So now, more than ever, we are all going to be able to use Iran as a litmus test against any pro Chavez creep. Does a leftist revolutionary supports nuclear bombs as a blackmail tool? Is that OK to make electoral fraud a norm to preserve any anti US regime? Is it OK to void basic Human Rights? Do you support gay marriage in the US but find nothing wrong with hanging gay teenagers? And more, much, much more. Have fun!
UPDATE
That Iran thing is going places. Apparently the regime has even cut Twitter, applying the basic strategy in any war, cut enemy lines internal communications as much as possible.
If in English I could not find any confirmation at least Radio France Internationale does say that Mousavi would be under house arrest while many of his campaign managers and party allies would have been arrested outright.
Two reflections here. First, this should be a lesson for the Venezuelan opposition. If Ahmadinejad gets away with such an election, you can be sure that Chavez will take his chances. Thus the opposition needs to work out right now its communication lines, diversify them as much as possible before an increasingly nationalized sector can cut these communications at will.
The second reflection is more negative, if possible. If Ahmadinejerk can afford to make such an electoral claim without offering an audit or anything, it is because he did get many votes, maybe even more than 50%. Inasmuch as it is not palatable for us with our Western sensitivities, people vote mostly in less educated countries on a transactional basis. That is, what is in it for me? In Venezuela many chavista voters do not like, for example, all the giving Chavez spreads abroad. But as long as they keep receiving the little bit that come their way they do not care and keep voting for Chavez. Transpose this phenomenon to Iran where a theocratic system combines religious values, nationalism and the occasional freebie and there you go: a solid 30 to 50% for Ahmadinejerk brand of religious populism (for lack of a better word description).
In regimes like Iran or Venezuela, it is not enough for the opposition to win, it has to be a massive win. As long as the sitting unpalatable government manages to retain between 40 and 45% of decided to fanatic voters, they will have little problem in retaining power even if they know they lost. Fraud works when you are determined and have almost as many voters as the winning side.
The lesson of Iran is clear for the Venezuelan opposition: if they want to become government someday they cannot wait for Chavez to collapse (Ahmadinejerk was reputed to be in serious economic trouble and we see none of that in the result!). The Venezuelan opposition needs electoral unity, a minimum government program that the masses can understand, a fool proof communication system for election day and manning ALL voting stations with enough witnesses to make sure accurate counting takes place. In an age of text messaging even if Chavez closes Globovision tomorrow you can still do a campaign. Or does anyone thinks that the Ayatollahs ever allowed a Globovison like media there?
-The end-
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