Understanding how autocracies grow


In the last years we have seen how different Latin American presidents are trying to stay in power beyond the term limits set for them. They do the Belorussian thing: change the constitution when need be.

Many of the apologists of such regimes say that most Europe heads of states don't have term limits or that they even have unelected queens and kings. In reality this argument is moot: queens and kings, even if out of time figures, have no real power and all those countries in democratic Europe with no term limit for their "main leaders" don't have presidential systems, but parliamentarian systems and that is a completely different fish.

In this map you can see some interesting clusters:

  • countries with presidential systems that allow only one consecutive term for the president
  • countries with presidential systems that allow two to three consecutie terms
  • countries with parliamentarian systems (no term limit)
  • countries with the presidential system AND no term limit.
Something that is very striking: the last group is composed almost exclusively by countries with some reputation. Only Suriname can be seen - so far - as a democracy, but then the president is elected by 2/3 of the deputies and they have only had their first democratic president after a long dictatorship.

Now Colombia's Uribe is trying to run for a third term. Ortega in Nicaragua got his way to be re-elected and I am sure in Bolivia they will try to do the same thing Venezuela did.

Why don't we actually force the discussion about parliamentarian system for Latin America?