Going to bed. Exhausted. Worried sick about a country that is able to rob in such a shameful way the popular will. More analysis tomorrow but we need to wait for the CNE to fess up some more, not like in 2007. At least now the opposition mood is combative and chavismo is on the defensive, no matter how many seats they robbed us.
60 seats so far for the MUD with the possibility of some more. SO my pessimistic prediction of 69 seats was actually optimistic. We will need to wait some to see how off I was.
psuv 5.222.364 46.62%
MUD 5.054.114 45.10%
but incomplete yet!!!
chavismo barely wins!!!! BIIIIIIIIIGGGG!
IMPORTANT: the opposition was divided for the Parlatino and thus together it is larger than 45.1%, IT IS LARGER THAN CHAVISMO!!!!! It is a majority!!!!
I am not too clear on that. Some states do not report 50% and yet the CNE declares them irreversible.
miranda 6 PSUV MUD 6
monagas : psuv 5 previsible 1 mud
nueva esparta : 3 mud 1 psuv, as expected
portuguesa : psuv 5 mud 1 as expected
sucre: mud 3 psuv 3 good one there!
tachira: mud 5 psuv 1 1 up in the air good prediction
trujillo: psuv 4 mud 1 predictable
yaracuy: psuv 4 mud 1 sad but not surprising
zulia: 12 mud, psuv 3 I got that one!!!!
vargas: psuv 3 mud 1 predictable
Barinas: MUD only 1
Bolivar: MUD 2!!!!! bad
Carabobo: MUD 3!!! very bad
cojedes: 1 MUD previsible
delta amacuro: 4 PSUV bad!!!
caracas libertador: PSUV 7 MUD 3 really bad
falcon: 4 PSUV MUD 2 bad
guarico: PSUV 3 2 undefined
lara: psuv 6 MUD 3 PPT out!!!!!!!
merida psuv 4 mud 2 previsible
Typed as I hear them:
She makes up excuses for the delay
She admits closeness of the vote
She starts the "irreversible" seats count
Amazonas: 2 PPT!!!!
Aragua: 3 MUD
anzoategui : 5 MUD!!!
Tibisay about to speak!
The breathless journalists tells us that all this delay for 8 seats!!!!
The CNE rectors are finally leaving their counting room!!!!
Fireworks in San Felipe! At last! Someone thinks they have won! I have no idea who it is.....
From tweets and tips and stuff the scenario of the opposition getting around 70 seats (sans PPT?) seems to be congealing. Leopoldo Lopez states that the Parlatino is won by the opposition and thus it would be proof that the popular vote went to the opposition.
The PSUV who was gathered for its election headquarters apparently has decided to leave the place, without declarations, and go straight to Miraflroes Palace. You are free to interpret this as you wish....
Looks like the madness of King Hugo makes the CNE deaf to the warning of Aveledo.
I have communicated with Caracas Chronicles. Their site is down. It seems that it is a technical problem, not a hacking matter. They request that you be patient and do not try to enter for a few minutes while they try to fix it.
The opposition speaks up. The spokesperson of the MUD, Ramon Guillermo Aveledo, says that we all know the result but the CNE. In other words, either the CNE gives the results or the opposition will give its own ones.
Ah! the fresh smell of shit hitting the fan!!!
As such I feel like I can finally call it: the opposition won at least a third of the seats and it seems that it also won the majority of the popular vote (it would not be so cocky if it did not). But it will not win a majority of the seats. So my prediction might come true but by how far?
The ministry for electoral affairs. That is how they call Tibisay Lucena, the CNE head. And tonight she richly deserves that title, unable to call the results until Chavez approves them. Which he will not do unless he gets so many seats. This is the growing rumor, that Chavez does not want to sign his minister decree. Are they going to cheat outright?
The problem here is that no one is questioning that the opposition did not win in seats though a persistent rumor of it winning in votes is floating. But Chavez hung himself to the highest tree by declaring that it was 2/3 or else and just like it happened in the recent Colombia debacle he does not know how to extricate himself from that non-victory.
Back from walking the dog. It struck me odd that I had not heard any firework or any procession of honking cars. At the very least that means that the result in San Felipe was very close. the locals do have already in their hands the result and for sure if one side had a clear victory they would already be making noise in the streets. From where I live I might not be able to tell who won but I certainly could hear that someone won.....
Still nothing. Globovision is resorting to fill up the airwaves to recite all the states and how many seats they get. Chavez on twitter is telling his supporters to get ready to accept the results. Is he preparing them for bad news? Who knows, all is possible in the propaganda crazed regime. I agree with CCSChrns: it looks that at the very least Chavez will fail to win his 2/3 majority which he qualified himself as the only victory he could accept. Too bad for him if he does not get it.
Curio: I got a "tip" which told me that the opposition would get 70, 1 more than my prediction. even though the thought would be pleasing for my ego, I ain't buying it.
This is ridiculous! The regime is not talking!!!! And we do not even have "carometros" except for some smiling faces at Globovision. But with botox, you know....
Mi friend in a very chavista center of Vargas reports chavismo losing 20% from 2009 and the opposition gaining 10%. Chavismo still wins but the difference shrunk quite a lot, down to 10%.
I am finally receiving some data from more chavista areas and it seems that abstention was mayor than usual. The two centers where I have friends in Vargas report an increase in 10% or more in their abstention rate respecting 2009. This in spite of later closings to herd a few extra chavista. So yes, I cannot put it as a national trend but if we put together with the now confirmed good participation in opposition voting areas then we can have some hopes that at least we are stopping chavismo from getting the 2/3 majority they need to keep rolling over us.
I am not a liberty to tell but I have received encouraging news. At least from some areas.
Tables should be closing but look at that! A friend in a chavista table is telling me that they are refusing to close the center and that people are still arriving. Also there are reports in chavista areas where they are trying to round up people.
Polls about to close. The long wait is about to start. I still have not been able to figure out whether chavista centers are voting as usual.
Impossible to take a nap. Phone calls.
Only one interesting detail to report. A friend in a voting center has figured out a way to see who votes for PSUV and who does not. See, there are two electronic cards that you need to punch and they are quite large. If you want to vote for the indigenous candidate for the Latin-American parliament you need to make enough of a reach to the bottom right that it is visible from afar!!!! In other words, you can guess who votes opposition straight ticket as only those people would bother marking also the indigenous candidate that runs supported by the opposition. In his district it does not matter much as most will vote opposition but they took up as a game to watch people they would guess would vote PSUV, and most did vote opposition. I wonder if chavismo is aware of that and might be using it already, as a type, to force people to vote PSUV....
Before the nap. A couple of phone calls. They vote in opposition districts and it looks that participation will be larger than in 2008. In particular the center where one of my brother was working in 2008 and 2009 (not this year but he still knows the "testigo" when he went to vote) by 2 PM they were reaching the 2008 number with still three hours to vote.
Nap time now.
Nothing to report from around here. After a truly beautiful morning looks like a thunderstorm is on its way to San Felipe. Lunch was great. Three cubalibre. Slightly drunk. Need a nap.
A survey of news revealed that in Caracas a troupe of chavista goons tried to stop Ivan Olivares of PJ from voting. The army and the CNE remain silent... It seems that there is a certain restlessness among the PSUV as similar absolutely undemocratic attitudes have been observed also in El Tigre and at the Simon bolivar University of Caracas. The one at the USB is worrisome becasue it was the army that intervened with brutal excess.
Nap time for about an hour, sorry...
Voting was fast!!! there was no one ahead of me! I was concerned at first but when I looked at my voting book about half of the people had already voted. I suppose that since everybody knows we can vote until 6 PM this time a lot of people decided to stay home for lunch.
In my voting center abstention was 19% in 2009 with more than 80 % voting NO. So I am in opposotion strongholds here and the only number that matters is the abstention. It looks that by 6 PM we should make it to 80% participation. The interesting data is from chavista centers. If you vote there or know people who vote there let us know.
After voting I drove around to different voting places, chavista or not, same panorama: few people, no lines. Lunch time for all. So I cannot tell you anything except what I already told you: in San Felipe the opposotion is voting.
And now, drinks and lunch with my house guest. See you later.
Before I am off to vote. Another telling sign I forgot to mention. My neighbor is a chavista who benefited from government contracts. in 2009 he was heavily involved in the campaign, with meetings even held in his home. But this time around... nothing.... just a "vote for PSUV" on chalk on his rear window... I am sure he is voting PSUV but the passion ain't there no more.
First accounts from voting readers in the comment. Keep bringing them, it is about the only reliable info we can get right now. All the rest is plain gossip, at least until 2 PM when the first exit polls may start forming the carometros of the regime.
Off to vote.
Well, my domestic activities took me longer than expected. Then again I started laundry. Not to lower my electoral stress but to increase my low stack of clean clothes, always a source of stress for me. In fact I can live dirty dishes stacked but I am always very nervous when my laundry hamper is full of dirty clothes....
But I digress.
I did go out to get the papers and that allowed me to drive around the polling stations of San Felipe who always vote for the opposition. There were line sin all of them. that is, the opposition electorate is voting en masse, no abstention there, at least not in San Felipe.
Another telling sign, maybe, there were no "puntos rojos". Those red points were set up by chavistas in previous elections, in particular the 2009 one in San Felipe. In those stations PSUV members were set to "help" their voters in how to vote. This time around, when voting is way, way more complex than in 2009, I have yet to see a chavista helping station... Not that there are opposition helping stations, they never were around anyway.
OK, now I am off to take a shower. My relative form Barquisimeto has voted and she has arrived here to spend the rest of the day. We will watch the results together tonight. S.O. is in Caracas where he votes. thus after the shower I will go out and vote as my relative keeps an eye on my dog. If voting is fast enough I will try to drive around more chavista areas to see how it goes. Then again it will be around lunch time so I do not expect to see much people there or in opposition strongholds.
Off fr a while. Walk dog, clean up kitchen, get papers. See you in about an hour or so.
Replying to a comment from "snook72" who is asking about exit polls.
No, as far as I know there will not be exit polls. Too difficult to assess, too expensive for the opposition, too much variation between local areas and districts to make a good sampling for national trend. On the other hand it is possible that in some districts there will be an exit poll. Those could be useful in such districts as Irribaren (Barquisimeto) or Sucre (East Caracas) or even Guarenas-Guatire (Caracas dormitories).
On the other hand I am sure that the regime will do exit polls at least in Libertador, Zulia, Aragua and Carabobo but I doubt that the PSUV will be kind enough to let me know the results even though my voting stations on the right hand of this blog gives me 6 PSUV readers so far :)
A novelty this time around. Miguel has been drafted to work at his voting station. So this time around you can follow the inner workings of a polling station live (he has an I-phone, he can blog). On the other hand he will not be able to check out what happens elsewhere so you are stuck with me for the rest :)
Follow Miguel day at "A day in the life of an electoral worker"
As expected, at 4 AM the chavista jerks started driving around blaring the military reveille!!!! I think they drove at least 5 times in my neighborhood. I could get back to sleep only when I saw the graying of the night...... And this is a neighborhood that votes at least 75% opposition!!! they should let us sleep! then again, they could not resist the opportunity to piss us off.
Otherwise taking my coffee I did a scan of all TV channels. It looks like for the first time in history Venezuela is holding an election.... Pathetic... But you know what, it is worse in Venevision who in addition is almost all the time in sink with the state system of VTV, Tves. Vive, etc... At least Globovision makes it look more normal and Televen has more original content. No wonder Chavez has been praising publicly Venevision lately for being "fair and balanced".
On the other hand polling stations seem to have good attendance, so people are voting as polls predicted.
When this post will show up first I will be on my way to bed. I need to go to sleep early because once again chavista jerks threaten to play the "toque de diana" at 4 AM. That is, the military wake up call... At least if I hear it I will be able to go back right to sleep since I do not live anymore in front of an electoral center. then as early at 5 AM it was impossible to sleep well as the grudging poll attendants felt compelled to wake up all the street.
This time around I have not squared up "correspondents" or anything of the sort. So my regular updates might not be as telling as in past elections no matter how many surveys around San Felipe polling stations I do. Then again if any reader sees interesting stuff, please forward. Last time we even had pictures from overseas voting centers. Also if like Miguel you or a relative of yours is stuck managing a voting station let them know to send you the name of their center and the voters at a given time. And then forward it to me since with that alone I can already come up with participation tendencies. Obviously if they get their center results around 6-7 PM and the CNE is still not talking I have no problem in revealing the data, anonymously of course, once the closing time of 6 PM is reached. We might need to put pressure this time around in any possible way we can.
As for yourselves, please put your personal impressions at voting time in the comment section, if you vote, that is. I'll try to visit the moderation page at least once every hour.
And thus with this pre bedtime entry we start early the now traditional election day post who last time got more than 10,000 unique visitors through the day. See you again around 8 AM.