My once upon a time favorite pollster, Alfredo Keller, came back to the forefront by giving the first poll that states that Chavez alleged high numbers are mere sympathy for the sick man, but that on the voting ring he loses by more than 10% against an opposition unity candidate. He also states that Capriles is ahead for the primaries but that Perez is going up and that Maria Corina strong anti crime platform is starting to bring her dividends. With three more months of primary campaign left the situation seems to be more fluid than what it was a month ago where the coronation of Capriles was assumed and made salivate more than one PJ member.
We cannot form a real opinion of the poll as long as we do not see its details, nor will I renege my position that polls are not very telling in Venezuela even if this might start to change some as people are more willing to express dissatisfaction with the situation. However there are two points that do deserve attention, and which are more important than whether Chavez is at 39% (he will never get below 35%, he is a religion) or Capriles is ahead.
The first thing is that the general dissatisfaction against the regime governing style and "achievements" is now solidly and consistently above 50% whereas the satisfaction (hard core chavismo) keeps decreasing at less than 20% now! This is the real bad number for chavismo, even if Chavez is its candidate. In fact, it is almost enough of a reason to dump him from the ticket and put another guy, just like the PSOE did in Spain by putting Rubalcaba instead of Zaptero for next month parliamentary elections. Maybe that is what the Castro colonial masters are doing, show Chavez the door.....
The other item is something I have been mentioning in the past: come February there will be at most three viable Alternativa Democratica candidates. This is what Keller is already sensing, no matter how many folks do run for the primaries. Perez and Capriles are almsot a shoo in in two of these spots, and the third one is being decided these weeks, probably by Christmas if not earlier. January will be to decide which one of the three will win.
And yes, as of today, taking my cue from El Ciudadano, I think it is better to call the opposition "Alternativa Democratica" or "La Unidad". I have not made up my choice yet but opposition is now pejorative that it has a majority of the vote, since September 2010 for that matter.