The 2012 primary results: part 1, the scenery

Last night I got my hands on the actual numerical results and there is a lot to be written on that.  The more so that the ambiguity of many of these results offer so many interpretations....  See, the main salient feature is that the Venezuelan opposition voter has become a master at cross voting whereas the chavista voter punches whatever hole it is asked to do.  Let me give you a glaring example starting with my home state of Yaracuy:

PJ Capriles 27.583 votes
PJ governor 16.206
PJ mayor San Felipe 3.356

On the other hand

UNT/other Perez 16.206
Other "other" prez 1.868
Convergnecia governor 35.339
Convergencia SF mayor 3.832
Other SF mayor  2.754

Clearly, Capriles had zero coattails, or rather his coattails were not enough to compensate the bad impression that Primero Justicia left in the state after 2008 when it was the main responsible agent of the total loss of the state to chavismo.  We remembered and we were not ready to reward PJ whatsoever.

This example illustrate the different points that need to be analyzed out of the real numbers.  Right now, not only there is the actual coattails effect, but we can also look at other type of cross over voting, at the participation by region (5.3% in Delta Amacuro to, say, 24,9% in Miranda), at the surprising surge of Voluntad Popular considering that 2 years ago it did not exist and that its coattail maker withdrew 2 weeks before the vote, at the scores of PJ in some key areas, at a certain resilience of AD and Copei, etc, etc...  a few short posts over the days ahead as time allows me.