The murder statistics for the municipalities of Guacara and Los Guayos in Central Venezuela are shown above. I get my data, among other sources, from the newspaper and the CICPC (police) leaks.
Both Guacara and Los Guayos are poor areas. The first one voted in 2010 for the alternative forces, for the first time. The second one was still mostly pro-Chávez back then but the PSUV's share of the vote had decreased from previous occasions. I know well the areas because I partly grew up there and often visit them. There are some data missing for a month in 2011 but the trend is clear there. The municipalities share borders. They also tend to have ups and downs at about the same time. We can actually detect many more patterns than this. I will return to this soon.
Both Guacara and Los Guayos are poor areas. The first one voted in 2010 for the alternative forces, for the first time. The second one was still mostly pro-Chávez back then but the PSUV's share of the vote had decreased from previous occasions. I know well the areas because I partly grew up there and often visit them. There are some data missing for a month in 2011 but the trend is clear there. The municipalities share borders. They also tend to have ups and downs at about the same time. We can actually detect many more patterns than this. I will return to this soon.
This is Guacara:
and this is Los Guayos:
