Preventing murder: looking ahead in Venezuela

Regular readers know for years I have been keeping track of crime in the central state of Carabobo. That chart you see above shows, on the right side, the amount of murders that are likely to take place in the coming months. Tomorrow or the day after tomorrow I will get some statistics about the total of murders for July and we can start seeing if the statistics are correct. In yellow you have a confidence value of 95%, in orange of 85%. 

It doesn't need to be like this.

If the Venezuelan police had better education levels, if the minister of justice had the right experts, if we used state resources not to buy fancy planes but to get the right equipment for police and the right material for prisons, we could get those numbers down. Since Chávez is in power the murder rate in Venezuela has more than tripled. It's time to change that.