A not so victorious campaign: Chavez es una encuesta ambulante

UPDATED, and worth the update

I have been trying to ignore it but there has been such silliness from the chavista side mixed to more serious stuff that a warning post is necessary.

Last Friday I was watching Diego Arria at El Ciudadano talk show promoting his latest memoir.  Asked about the poll wars, he replied one of his best lines ever, "Chavez is a walking poll" (Chavez es una encuesta ambulante).  Indeed, watchign Chavez and  his campaign can only lead one to think that these guys are smelling the winds of defeat, that they are not used to it and that they are scared.

Let's go in kind of a retrograde order to examine the evidence.

Today chavismo sent his goons, some with PDVSA caps even!, to block a Capriles electoral activity in La Pastora, the Western Area of Caracas.  True , it had happened before but it stopped for a while.  Now, in a post Amuay era, chavismo is becoming more irrational.

Last week we had the tale of a secret opposition program which was nothing less but a neo-liberal package, worse than what Carlos Andres Perez forced upon the country in 1989, leading straight to El Caracazo. There are a few things wrong with that.

First, the opposition has a well crafted plan to bring out the country of its chavista economic prostration.  I may agree in parts and disagree in parts, but that program is open, has been discussed and hides no agenda. But we have not been given, as far as I know, a bona fide copy of the supposed secret government pact of the opposition to privatize even the asses of public workers....

Second, the opposition would have had, in print, a "secret program"? PLEAAAASE.....  I am no Capriles but I am sure that if I were in his shoes and secretly planning to privatize the Virgen del Valle sanctuary I would not need to have it in print, it will be all traced quite simply in my memory.

Third, the actors chosen to advance this latest conspiracy theory are losers, big time.  First it was David de Lima, who was governor of Anzoategui, calling early in his term Chavez a god, but expelled for corruption anyway.  Even when he defected for the opposition he was not able to be warmly welcome like Henri Falcon of Lara.  de Lima had disappeared from the front scene, failing to make any mark in opposotion primaries and probably loaded with defense debts seems to ave come back to chavismo.  Then, surprise, the argument for neo-liberal package conspiracy was taken by William Ojeda.  He is better than de Lima, I even had some nice words for him in my blog (he was one of the early deserters of Chavez camp).  But the poor guy simply cannot win anything inside the opposition. His representative seat he got it after "arrangement". He failed to win the Petare primary and was miffed when his fraud claim were dismissed and his new party refused to support him on that. So his attack this week, when he should have known better as I am sure he participated or knew of people who participated in the program writing, is simply a spoiled brat reaction.

But these above are close to folklore without major effect in the ending campaign (I am sparing you the US mercenary story, a mercenary that had all his instructions on a paper pad).  What is much graver, and could have more effect are the accusations of coup mongering and civil war.

Let´s look at the possibility of the opposition to make a coup.  None. I mean, polls are favorable, why rock the boat. Also, even if the MUD were in the mood of a coup d'etat, how, HOW, could it proceed today? If Chavez has achieved something is a mollified and corrupt and fat army that is not going to jeopardize its benefits either to support him or to overthrow him.

As for defending a victory if its stolen by Chavez, who could blame them?  At any rate the initiator of the civil war would be Chavez by refusing to recognize the result.

But the real purpose is elsewhere in all of these actions.  Chavismo has noticed that too many foreign media are sending newbies to Venezuela and many of these take everything at face value, not imaging that a government can lie at such level.  for example the dispatched of Reuters this year almost sounded to a tee pro Chavez even though they seem a little bit better lately.  thus chavismo is starting some form of character assassination that would justify his not recognition of October results. In short, he would justify his oncoming violence against the opposition because he "knew" they were going to be violent.

Unfortunately it probably will not work.  First, not all journalists are that stupid and within a few weeks in Venezuela they all know better except for a few eternally deluded, and payed for that, like some of the guys showing up at VTV talk shows. Second, a few people are sending messages to chavismo.  If we can imagine that several countries must have warned that enough is enough in the most confidential ways, other are more vocal like of all people, The Carter Center.

But the best sign of all is to watch Chavez who has indeed become a walking living opinion poll result. His incoherence, his inability to stick to an idea that is not an insult, his obvious exhaustion and not only from cancer but from disdain is the surest sign that chavismo feels that its days may be counted.


Courtesy of Gustavo Coronel I read Chavez words of yesterday in Charallave rally
“Hasta a los ricos yo creo que les conviene que gane Chávez… ellos tienen sus riquezas… tienen sus buenas casas, tienen sus buenos vehículos, a lo mejor tienen tremendos apartamentos en la playa, tienen propiedades, etc., les gusta viajar al exterior en vacaciones, etc., a ellos: ¿que les conviene, una guerra civil?"

"I think that even for the rich a Chavez victory is a good thing.... they have their riches... they have their good homes, their good cars, they may even have fantastic apartments at the beach, they have real estate, etc.. they like to travel outside the country for holidays, etc... I [tell] them: what is good for you, a civil war?"

There you have it, Chavez, the extortion master.

This was never a revolution, it was a narco-mob gang making its way to power.