Certainly before I write anything analytic on Sunday's numbers I need to make my mea culpa if I want to rescue any shred of credibility I may have left.
Yes, I blew it on my predictions, even if some parts can be rescued. But the good news, or at least, the news that comfort me somewhat is that all pollsters blew it also, even if some say GIS XXI got it, which in my opinion was a lucky guess by Jesse Chacon. The pollster historical result is that all of them have blown it at least once big time since 2006. Sunday it was Consultores 21 and even Varianzas with its idiotic exit poll on Sunday night. Datanalisis is trying to claim that they did not do so bad but they conveniently forget that they gave Lara and Miranda to Capriles by more than 10 points each when in the end he lost both of them, even his home state.... Conclusion: I have no more egg to wipe out of my face than they did, and at least I have no client complaining at the door.
Still, I have to wipe that egg....
My first assessment that Capriles was going to win was on August 24. I was giving him less than 6 million then and I stressed that abstention was going to be the key for a victory on Capriles as abstention favored him while high participation favored Chavez. At that time I was considering an abstention of at least 25%, going to 30%. There is no point in discussing abstention decrease, I said it all in my election night post.
I suppose that I should have let it all there, but noooo.... I had to dig my hole deeper. I went on to establish that there were three key states to watch, that a defeat there of Chavez meant a sure victory for Capriles Well, at least I got that part right, by winning in Lara, Anzoategui and Bolivar Chavez won by a good margin overall. Some consolation my friends....
Still, as a small atonement, I insisted on the abstention importance (September 4, giving Capriles 6 million for the first time) and toward the end (October 3) I did write a piece where I said that Capriles deserved to win but that there was still a way for Chavez to hold on. At least, in my subconscious I never forgot that Chavez had a bigger chance to prevail than expected. Again, some consolation.....
So there you have it, my mea culpa. I could go on with a few more "attenuating circumstances" but they would start sounding like excuses. I just hope that with the above, I will at least obtain some indulgence from the readers, hoping that they understand that my optimism was not extreme and that even in my final prediction I gave Capriles with 7.3 million with an abstention of 25% (he got 6.5 with an abstention of 19%).
Still, this gives readers the right to decide whether I should proceed to analyze the elections results as I do usually. My track record is: barely a pass in 2006, good enough in 2008, scores big in 2010, blows it in 2012. You be the sole judge and leave in the comment section whether you think I should proceed or write on something else. I mean it, if I do not get at least 50 encouraging comments I will not dare to analyze last Sunday results.