More tales from the crypt: Diosdado Cabello returns

Today the surprise is the official return of Diosdado Cabello to the forefront as the plum political job of presiding the National Assembly becomes his.  True, in December he was promoted back to the direction of the PSUV but from there to reign at the Assembly?

Diosdado Cabello has never been too far from these pages, from the description of his newly acquired wealth and power to his "triumvirate" position with Chavez and Chacon.  If it seems that Jesse Chacon is definitely out as his brother still lingers in jail while himself has been downgraded to official pollster of the regime, it also seems that Chavez has not been able to get rid of Diosdado Cabello.  From here deciding whether the fight continues is not possible. However we can surmise that the disease of Chavez and the ability of Diosdado to retain a power quota (he managed to have quite a few of his unconditional win the "PSUV primaries" for the legislative elections of 2010, including his wife) have conspired to this renewed burst of realpolitik.

For all the tales of succession Chavez has no real heir because as a good autocrat he has always been more concerned about cutting down to size new promising talent than promoting it.  Thus only reckless and ruhtless operators like Diosdado have a chance of surviving.  And now that Chavez is sick and that there is a need to have someone at hand to avoid a feared collapse of the regime, Chavez is placed with the unappetizing bite of having to revive one of the triumvirate legs.  Chavez still has moves to avoid a full rebirth of Diosdado: for example he has yet to appoint a new vice-president that could quickly become a counter balance to Diosdado. But that would not be a new triumvirate because the previous one was born of common necessity while right now any vice-president Chavez names will be seen automatically as a natural rival of Diosdado.

What does this all mean in practical terms?  It all depends if Chavez indeed wants Diosdado to be a potential successor (and thus acknowledging his own novel political weakness).

If Chavez is indeed weakening and that there is a doubt as his ability to run in October  then Diosdado is a natural candidate, together with whomever Chavez names to replace Jaua at the Vice-presidency.  That way Chavez will still have a choice of sorts when the time comes.  Besides, currently Diosdado has his uses as the campaign develops: no one inside of chavismo has the chutzpah to bully, insult, and violate the rights of the opposition as Diosdado does.  His actions and speeches in the National Assembly since he was elected to it a year ago have made him one of the most despicable characters to haunt its hallways.  We should not be surprised of course, Diosdado is a very corrupt military and thus the kind of folk least able to understand any shade of meaning in words such as "democracy" or "ethics".  From his new position we can expected an even bolder jerk, if possible.

But if Chavez is feeling healthy enough the promotion of Diosdado might just be a trick to get rid of him once and for all after October 7.  For example Chavez can use Diosdado to do all of the dirty work that he should not do during the campaign, such attending rallies to insult the opposition candidates since it is clear that Chavez campaign this time around will be much more on TV than on the stump.  It would be a classical example of giving him rope so Diosdado can hang himself.  It could work if Chavez manages a convincing reelection and if he has time to groom a counter balance to Diosdado, who today controls the lone faction of the PSUV with some real power now that the presumptive heir Maduro has been evicted to Carabobo state where he is likely to disappear along his clan (Cilia Flores, defenestrated from her Assembly position, and other civilians that have been filling up the graveyard of chavismo leaving mostly militaries in charge everywhere).

We will see soon enough.

Flip-flop-flipping around happily...

I am still not ready to come back, enjoying too much a blog distancing (and life distancing, for that matter), but I cannot resist to report on this latest hat-trick-that-wasn't  from the regime.

See, on February 12 the Unidad will hold its primaries to decide its candidates for the election rounds starting October 7.  But that day also sort of coincides with the Battle of La Victoria which is one that chavismo likes to celebrate even if it is not a real national holiday.  But the battle marks the bravura and self sacrifice of a few young Venezuelans during the Independence wars and for a military regime like the one of Chavez it is irresistible to pass on any linking real youth (meaning revolutionary youth) with any military activities.  So the ineffable youth minister, Mari Pili Hernandez, announced that the real Venezuelan Youth will be discussing the Bolivar plan for the next eon and submit their thoughts to Chavez on Youth Day.  How much more Castro Cuban can you be?  Really.....  And this would have been accompanied by a large rally in Caracas on, you guessed it, February 12 while the opposition tries to vote (traffic jams, scare tactics, SA like salutes, etc, etc...).  Never mind that historically the celebrations are in Maracay/La Victoria and not Caracas.

Sure enough the opposition was quick in pointing the flaws and the threats and the admission of weakness from chavismo trying to distract in any silly way it can from the primaries.  Some within chavismo realized that it was a political blunder, a silly game of "mine is bigger" that they could only lose.  So Hernandez backtracked and Chavez said that they did not want to distract the eyes of the country as to his predicted opposition poor showing.

But in the same breath he also said that nothing was changed, that he did not know what Hernandez was up to and that La Victoria was always the seat of the activities on February 12.  A strange flip back after the flip-flop.

What to make of that?  That the regime is getting worried sick about the Unidad primaries, that it is realizing, belatedly, that they will be held, that a clear winner may emerge in the end.  There is no hidden message in Diosdado Cabello "prediction" that the primaries will be cancelled, or that Hernandez wanted to create a distraction if anything to keep a few people from voting by forcing them to march for the regime.  They are worried and are at a loss as to what to do to hide them or make them disappear.

Actually Chavez betrayed his worried subconscious by revealing that his information is that no more than 20% of the country would vote and thus the primary will be a failure.  In fact 20% turnout for a primary is EXCELLENT anywhere in the world, and the more so in Venezuela where Chavez claims that more than 60% of the people are with him, and we must presume unwilling to vote in an opposition primary.  In fact, if 20% of people actually vote in February it may mean that already 40% of us are ready to vote against Chavez and with the usual 30% abstention, well, that leaves 30% for Chavez in October......  Even though I shall add a "caveat emptor" as electoral history of primaries tend to say that the primary vote is never even half of the final vote count.