Now that I have vented my anger at the idiocy of the opposition for postponing so late the primaries (which means that if a second round were to be necessary it might not take place until March or April!), it is time to evaluate the situation a little bit closer. After all I have not written a real electoral post since my discussion in Spanish over the primaries. Little good did it do.... Not that I was expecting anything, mind you, just sad of having been proven once again that the MUD victories are at the very least as much in spite of the MUD than becasue of its actions.
Needless to say that at this point I am very pessimistic as to the opposition winning in 2012, for three reasons basically
- The MUD has been unable to create a structure to reply to Chavez. This is even more damaging that there is no candidate and that there will not be a functional candidate until sometime in March. Let's not forget that whomever wins on February 12 will need a few weeks just to put in place his campaign structure which is not going to be the same thing as a primary structure. Or why else do you thing that there is a gap of several weeks between the end of the US primary season and the political conventions? That the MUD is unable, either from parliament, or from the street to reply to the many obscenities of Chavez, or take advantage of some of its mistakes is simply at this point unacceptable (the PDVSA pension fund, the absolute unpreparedness of the regime in case of national catastrophe, the failure to oppose to the housing law that will kill the building industry amen of private property, etc, etc... while not even offering a unified front of support to the students, the health workers, etc...).
- Because there is no real evidence that the MUD will create a viable project for the country. I am not talking here of a big book of all that the new president will try to do: s/he will not be able to do so because of chavismo sabotage in public administration. But it is of absolute no use to run primaries if we are going to vote on personality likes and dislikes rather than on a real viable document that the candidates will be asked to apply, with the nuances of their own beliefs but akin to the force of a law.
- Because simply put the MUD is clearly more preoccupied about how they will split among themselves the few town-halls that they might get in 2012 rather than create a real plan to confront Chavez and his corrupt ideology.
Failure to address these items will not only fail to convince enough chavistas to vote for the opposition but will demobilize folks like yours truly. I have the feeling that as long as Ramos Allup and Omar Barboza seem to call the shots at the MUD, no progress will be made. These two characters might be great managers of small local campaigns but in my book they seem woefully inadequate to run the inspired campaign that will unseat Chavez.
Of course, all is not lost yet. In what will be an hypertrophied electoral season Chavez might make enough mistakes to compensate for that one of the MUD. But the fact of the matter is that Chavez scores this point even though now he cannot use the argument of "wanting an opponent": he will be shadow boxing until next February and that could hurt him a lot.
So, what does the MUD needs to do, URGENTLY:
- Create a mechanism to reply to chavismo antics.
- Since apparently they are refusing to even discuss as second round balloting, short of "preferential vote" the only option is to create strict conditions to run in the primary in a way that the primary will be held among no more than 3-4 people, giving a real chance to have a winner with close to 50% of the vote and no other close to 20%.
- Update their image system to make folks believe that they are actually working hard at a platform, elections, etc... Even if they are wasting precious time squabbling, they need to make a better effort at pretending that all is going well. Ramon Garcia Avelado is becoming less and less convincing each time he appears at Globovision.....
- Participate more in street protests, have the national assembly representatives more combative than what they are doing, etc...
In other words, make us believe that they care, that they are working for us because I tell you, the more I look at them the less convinced I am that they give a rat ass about my future (thinking of it, there might be a point in Chavez calling us rats). Of course, there are some exceptions of politicians doing the right things, but the MUD is now so clearly dominated by the Ramos and Barbozas that its image is tanking fast....
Still more than 18 months before elections but time is running fast guys!!!!!