OK, so I will be on the road tomorrow and I will not be able to follow what will happen in the all important installation of the National Assembly. Thus I figure out I should write my best possible educated guest before I take off.
What will happen tomorrow will depend on one thing only, whether Chavez can return to Venezuela at some point to take office. However the decisions are taken in large part in Cuba as it befits the head of the colonial empire that the Castros have established through the exploitation of Venezuela. That explains a lot of the trips made to Cuba by a lot of people who went there not necessarily to visit Chavez. Brazil needs Chavez and Venezuela as it scarecrow while it keeps building its empire quietly elsewhere. The ALBA clowns are too afraid of a post Chavez era when they may not have access anymore to political money which ensures their reelection. In short, with Chavez out there is no guarantee that the anti US crusade in Latin America can keep flourishing (as a matter of speaking if you forgive my choice of words). Because in the end this is all that is, and anti US crusade that explains even why some government that should have known better did not condemn the Chavez regime when there was still time to do so. You know who you are.
This was not a digression if you forgive me: there is a well orchestrated plan by many in South America to ensure that a Venezuela without Chavez keeps being run by Chavez "heirs". Brazil needs its bill in Venezuela paid. The ALBA needs still financing. Cuba is of course in a survival struggle where Venezuela is it lone hope. The US could not care less, Venezuela will keep sending oil and its best professionals as cheap immigrant labor. The Chinese just want their bill paid and some raw material insured. In the lot they may even be more honest brokers than Colombia which wants Chavez out more to take over us than to create a new stable democracy.
We have no friends. Thus the decisions that will unfold as of tomorrow, decided in Havana, probably long ago. That they may not work out in the end is another discussion.
The first case is that Chavez will not come back, period. Besides the shame of dying in another country with the immense psychological consequences that this will give to the country, the death of Chavez in Havana is scheduled to support the Castro's interests. They are not long range, they are until Fidel and Raul die or find a place to hide safely. 2 years? 5? As such the objective is to ensure that the 6 year term that Chavez collected last October is "respected" and fuck the constitution if needed.
In this scenario it is important to secure a political climate that ensures an electoral victory when convenient, if indispensable. Note that the regime as been sending signs that it is not going to respect the Constitution which is strict on at least one crucial point: if January 10 Chavez does not show up the new president is the head of the National Assembly at the time. We are thus headed toward a bi-cephalus system where Maduro will be the visible head of state while Cabello will remain at the head of the National Assembly with some kind of secret deal that insures he will hold a significant portion of the on paper powers of "president" Maduro. It is convenient for him as he can have Maduro take the nasty economical decisions that need to be taken without suffering as much of the political consequences.
In this case expect tomorrow a surprise winner for the leadership of the National Assembly, someone that within a week will be propelled to the presidency of Venezuela while Cabello having been named vice president of the Assembly will recover his chair without any trouble. Within 30 to 50 days new elections will have been held where a victory of Maduro is 99% certain as of thus typing (Capriles went on vacation, let's hope that to recover and get ready for a new campaign).
The second case is that Chavez actually may come back, if anything to hand down himself power to someone else (supporting that person openly from his death bed would do). This becomes quite complicated because the constitutional violations that chavismo is planning in Cuba probably include some artifact to justify the return of Chavez at a later date for his swearing in. So many hypotheses are possible that there is no point speculating on those. Let's just say that if Cabello remains as the chair of the National Assembly tomorrow it is because either he knows he will hold to it for a while or because he knows that becoming president on January 10 is important for him to retain office through some form of, well, something. That something depends on the possible date of Chavez return. Let's not forget that whoever is sworn in to replace Chavez on January 11 will have one of the shortest presidency of Venezuelan history and then nothing else to do for quite a while.
You need to understand one thing: if chavismo falls a lot of people will be in judicial trouble. If chavismo does not fall quite yet, the economic problems coming real soon could do it in. Thus, in my very humble opinion, the Castros and chavismo have only two options: elections ASAP or no elections at all. The opposition knows that very well and that explains why, for example, Aveledo was saying tonight that one could explore ways to postpone the searing in of Chavez......
In a few hours we will start having some serious hints.
Do you want to support more transparency in Venezuela?
Check out the Esdata site. They are doing a very valuable work. This year we will go back to the election centres and they will help us count the votes.
Dieterich: Chávez won't be president again
You can read an interesting interview with old-hat, German socialist Heinz Dieterich published today in a Brazilian newspaper.
He thinks, as we have said already, new elections are coming.
I will later comment on this article, I have things to do right now.
Ps. meanwhile, Venezuela is importing 10 thousand tons of black beans from the Dominican Republic because that country cannot pay with anything else. This is as if Russia were exporting gas to Germany and getting wheat as payment....such a waste.
Las inseguridades de Villegas
El recién ministro de comunicaciones, Ernesto Villegas, que fue en su día algo de periodista, se picó con Globovisiòn. Aparentemente no le gusto que llamen a Maduro presidente encargado.
Supongo que de una manera perversa es verdad: Maduro no está haciendo un carajo en su cargo sino ver como asegura ser el próximo presidente de Venezuela, congraciándose con quien tenga que hacerlo menos el pueblo de Venezuela cuyos problemas aparentemente no lo afectan de sobremanera.
Pero lo que refleja ese comunicado más que inútil, desatinado, es el desasosiego de los que pusieron toda su alma en un caudillo que no se lo merecía. Y ellos también mueren cuando muere el caudillo.
Que me perdonen los lectores pero Ernesto Villegas es un güevon. Ofuscarse por un exceso verbal de Globovisión que sin embargo refleja la cruda realidad, es una idiotez. Que Villegas empieza a ofuscarse por hechos como ese de que en Caracas se asesinaron más gente en Diciembre que en Nueva York, en todo una año, y con una población doble de Caracas. El fue periodista alguna vez, ¿no?
Supongo que de una manera perversa es verdad: Maduro no está haciendo un carajo en su cargo sino ver como asegura ser el próximo presidente de Venezuela, congraciándose con quien tenga que hacerlo menos el pueblo de Venezuela cuyos problemas aparentemente no lo afectan de sobremanera.
Pero lo que refleja ese comunicado más que inútil, desatinado, es el desasosiego de los que pusieron toda su alma en un caudillo que no se lo merecía. Y ellos también mueren cuando muere el caudillo.
Que me perdonen los lectores pero Ernesto Villegas es un güevon. Ofuscarse por un exceso verbal de Globovisión que sin embargo refleja la cruda realidad, es una idiotez. Que Villegas empieza a ofuscarse por hechos como ese de que en Caracas se asesinaron más gente en Diciembre que en Nueva York, en todo una año, y con una población doble de Caracas. El fue periodista alguna vez, ¿no?
Epiphany is coming one day earlier in 2013
Epiphany is January 6 and commemorates, supposedly, the three wise men that went to adore Jesus, even though by this time he was probably in Egypt already. But I digress... The fact of the matter is that a true epiphany is coming to Venezuela on January 5.
There is a whirlwind of rumors about what the hell is going on with Chavez in Havana. I do not share the theory that is is all a mere conspiracy theory and that Chavez is suddenly coming back on December 9 as the conquering hero, ready to be sworn in for a bright presidential term on January 10. I think the guy is rally sick and I am not willing to cross him out quite yet. But I have strong doubts that he will show up on January 10. Heck, we have not heard peep squeak from him since December 11 (I think). If the guy was indeed preparing himself to return to Caracas this weekend I am sure that we would have seen either a picture of him or heard at least a short from call on the air through VTV.
We must thus work on the 99% hypothesis that he will not be in Caracas on January 10 (note, I give it a 99% because there is always a 1% with these crazy guys, drama queenized to the tilt).
There is a huge "constitutional" debate about what article so and so means if Chavez does not show up. Well, first the Constitution says what chavista say it says. There is already significant concern about that as today we heard that from Brazil and the US that the Constitution should be applied din Venezuela. True, at least from Brazil that may mean they will recognize as constitutional what is convenient for them and ensures that Venezuela will pay its big debts to Brazilian companies.
I personally think that there are ways to manipulate the Constitution as to when new elections may have to be held if Chavez does not show up and a replacement is required. However there is one thing that apparently chavismo will not be able to by pass: if January 10 Chavez is not in Caracas to take office, then the provisional president is the chair of the National Assembly until elections are held. thus the date of January 5 (which can be postponed as late as January 9 I suppose) becomes crucial as it is the date when the National Assembly elects its chair for the 2013 legislative year.
Let's assume that chavismo is not going to be crazy enough to flout through and through the Constitution and that indeed a new National Assembly chair is sworn in before January 10. This will be our political epiphany because, well, the post Chavez era will officially start.
In case Diosdado Cabello retains his seat it may mean that indeed he will not seek to replace Chavez just yet. He will name a new government on January 10 (probably 90% recycled from the current one), Maduro will be out of office but the official candidate of chavismo and though some excuses that the calendar and the TSJ will provide (there is a holiday week in February we will have elections late February at the latest (because a month is too short but chavismo needs them ASAP anyway, so I am betting 40 days for election). Then again there is always the option of Diosdado deciding anyway on January 11 to run for office, or start some coup.
The second hypothesis is that Diosdado is not reelected chair of the National Assembly. Then, everything goes. If one of his minions is elected we can expect him to announce his candidacy even before January 10. If a Maduro loyalist is sworn in it may mean that the downfall of Diosdado has started and that the army has decided to abandon him and side with Maduro. And more craziness that I care not proceed with.
At any rate, we can now measure to its large extent the mistakes of the MUD and Capriles since October 7. Recognizing Chavez victory as they did, letting governors fend on their own without any basic program, only lead to a major sweep of chavismo on December 16. As a consequence of that sweep not only Capriles is now a faulty candidate but there is no easy replacement for him in sight and the opposition has less means, if any, to oppose even a candidate as lacking as Maduro. In short, we are woefully under prepared for the challenges that come as of today. Chavismo would be foolish not to seek an election that they could win with relative ease if held by March 15. But then again, the disarray within chavismo can offer us some surprises, from an outright "coup" alleging that after all a reelected Chavez does not need to be sworn in, to more simply a fatal division among chavismo that gives the victory to an opposition that will be unable to deal with the inheritance of Chavez and probably unable to hold to office for long.
Oh well, back to my vacation.....
There is a whirlwind of rumors about what the hell is going on with Chavez in Havana. I do not share the theory that is is all a mere conspiracy theory and that Chavez is suddenly coming back on December 9 as the conquering hero, ready to be sworn in for a bright presidential term on January 10. I think the guy is rally sick and I am not willing to cross him out quite yet. But I have strong doubts that he will show up on January 10. Heck, we have not heard peep squeak from him since December 11 (I think). If the guy was indeed preparing himself to return to Caracas this weekend I am sure that we would have seen either a picture of him or heard at least a short from call on the air through VTV.
We must thus work on the 99% hypothesis that he will not be in Caracas on January 10 (note, I give it a 99% because there is always a 1% with these crazy guys, drama queenized to the tilt).
There is a huge "constitutional" debate about what article so and so means if Chavez does not show up. Well, first the Constitution says what chavista say it says. There is already significant concern about that as today we heard that from Brazil and the US that the Constitution should be applied din Venezuela. True, at least from Brazil that may mean they will recognize as constitutional what is convenient for them and ensures that Venezuela will pay its big debts to Brazilian companies.
I personally think that there are ways to manipulate the Constitution as to when new elections may have to be held if Chavez does not show up and a replacement is required. However there is one thing that apparently chavismo will not be able to by pass: if January 10 Chavez is not in Caracas to take office, then the provisional president is the chair of the National Assembly until elections are held. thus the date of January 5 (which can be postponed as late as January 9 I suppose) becomes crucial as it is the date when the National Assembly elects its chair for the 2013 legislative year.
Let's assume that chavismo is not going to be crazy enough to flout through and through the Constitution and that indeed a new National Assembly chair is sworn in before January 10. This will be our political epiphany because, well, the post Chavez era will officially start.
In case Diosdado Cabello retains his seat it may mean that indeed he will not seek to replace Chavez just yet. He will name a new government on January 10 (probably 90% recycled from the current one), Maduro will be out of office but the official candidate of chavismo and though some excuses that the calendar and the TSJ will provide (there is a holiday week in February we will have elections late February at the latest (because a month is too short but chavismo needs them ASAP anyway, so I am betting 40 days for election). Then again there is always the option of Diosdado deciding anyway on January 11 to run for office, or start some coup.
The second hypothesis is that Diosdado is not reelected chair of the National Assembly. Then, everything goes. If one of his minions is elected we can expect him to announce his candidacy even before January 10. If a Maduro loyalist is sworn in it may mean that the downfall of Diosdado has started and that the army has decided to abandon him and side with Maduro. And more craziness that I care not proceed with.
At any rate, we can now measure to its large extent the mistakes of the MUD and Capriles since October 7. Recognizing Chavez victory as they did, letting governors fend on their own without any basic program, only lead to a major sweep of chavismo on December 16. As a consequence of that sweep not only Capriles is now a faulty candidate but there is no easy replacement for him in sight and the opposition has less means, if any, to oppose even a candidate as lacking as Maduro. In short, we are woefully under prepared for the challenges that come as of today. Chavismo would be foolish not to seek an election that they could win with relative ease if held by March 15. But then again, the disarray within chavismo can offer us some surprises, from an outright "coup" alleging that after all a reelected Chavez does not need to be sworn in, to more simply a fatal division among chavismo that gives the victory to an opposition that will be unable to deal with the inheritance of Chavez and probably unable to hold to office for long.
Oh well, back to my vacation.....
Venezuela: the Threshold
I was a child when Brezhnev died. I was fascinated by Russia and thus I used to read and listen to anything coming from the Soviet Union. I remember how I would try to read between the lines what the Soviets were saying and used to compare that to what US Americans, Russians in exile and others were saying.
Consider this:
Brezhnev was ill for years but his situation became really grim at the start of 1982. He refused to relinquished power until he died of a heart attack 10 November of the same year.
The Soviets elected Andropov right away. His term in power was very brief. He was elected on 12 November of the same year, suffered total renal failure in February of the next year and in August he had to be kept in a clinic from where he never left. The ones around Andropov had a facsimile of a signature attached to all documents that Andropov was supposed to sign. He died in February of 1983.
Chernenko came to power 11 April 1983. He was already ill, so ill people could hardly hear what he said during Andropov's funeral. Early in 1984 he had to be hospitalized for a month but kept working. Then he was so ill that his people did the same they had done with Andropov: fake his signature.
He died 10 March. Only then did the citizens of the USSR really understand how bad his situation had been.
Chavismo is hardly an ideology, even if it uses tactics and symbols of authoritarian socialism and communism. It's just petro-caudillismo with a stronger military stench as before, riding on the longest oil-price boom - I'd rather say oil price and not oil as oil price and feudal mentality are the keys to a lot of Venezuela's ills.
Chavismo is in a quagmire: what to do without Chávez? While Lenin was alive, no one and definitely not Lenin, were talking about "Leninism" in the USSR. When Stalin ruled, "Stalinism" was never a word used by the government or officially tolerated by the Soviet regime. They talked about Marxism or Marxism-Leninism. When Stalin died, "Stalinism" didn't become a good word in the Soviet Union. That was for the strictest useful idiots abroad. They kept talking about Marxism or Marxism-Leninism or simply communism. Outside the Soviet Union hippy commies did talk about all kinds of big-guy-isms.
The Soviets had strong cults of personality, but there was at least some real structural and ideological transformation going on in the country.
In Venezuela we only got more petrodollar-driven clientelism and even less accountability than before. We got the revival of a completely irrational cult around Bolívar and the military.
Some clever Chávez oligarchs know that. And they are worried.
Happy 2013 to all!
As expected, I was so taken by other matters that I have not read a paper or watched a news cast since last Friday.... I am sorry I could not post my best wishes to readers of this blog and talk some about what to look for next year.
First, it seems that Chavez is doing really bad. Apparently all went to Cuba to spend the New Year Holiday. and left in charge Navarro whose only merit is to have been one of the biggest sucker up to Chavez that ever existed. He certainly has no charisma nor ideas to conspire and take over. In short, no one is in charge. Then again, does it matter?
Fireworks for the new year were plentiful much more than last year in San Felipe. I commented to the SO that maybe people were cracking the fireworks they could not crack the day the news come from Cuba. Sure enough as I open a computer for the first time in 4 days I read that, well, news may be coming... People did not go in as large a number as hoped for to the prayer vigils, preferring fireworks. Ingrates!.
13 is a good number, it never brought me bad luck. In fact, if I play lottery I am sure that 13 is included. I even won once, enough to pay the half dozen lottery tickets I may buy in the year (you know, those sold in the streets by kids on drug addiction recovery programs). I thus trust that this year overall is not going to be any worse than the recent ones. Things being what they are in Venezuela, not getting worse is already a bonus....
And that is all because as far as Venezuela is concerned all will depend on the how, when, which way, if, and etc. of El Supremo. I never thought I would have to live in a country that passed through the traumas of transitions like Spain, Yugoslavia, etc... but here I am. Now back to that left over Foie Gras and Ribera del Duero from last night. You gotta love some left overs.....
First, it seems that Chavez is doing really bad. Apparently all went to Cuba to spend the New Year Holiday. and left in charge Navarro whose only merit is to have been one of the biggest sucker up to Chavez that ever existed. He certainly has no charisma nor ideas to conspire and take over. In short, no one is in charge. Then again, does it matter?
Fireworks for the new year were plentiful much more than last year in San Felipe. I commented to the SO that maybe people were cracking the fireworks they could not crack the day the news come from Cuba. Sure enough as I open a computer for the first time in 4 days I read that, well, news may be coming... People did not go in as large a number as hoped for to the prayer vigils, preferring fireworks. Ingrates!.
13 is a good number, it never brought me bad luck. In fact, if I play lottery I am sure that 13 is included. I even won once, enough to pay the half dozen lottery tickets I may buy in the year (you know, those sold in the streets by kids on drug addiction recovery programs). I thus trust that this year overall is not going to be any worse than the recent ones. Things being what they are in Venezuela, not getting worse is already a bonus....
And that is all because as far as Venezuela is concerned all will depend on the how, when, which way, if, and etc. of El Supremo. I never thought I would have to live in a country that passed through the traumas of transitions like Spain, Yugoslavia, etc... but here I am. Now back to that left over Foie Gras and Ribera del Duero from last night. You gotta love some left overs.....
Chávez Schwiegersohn und Minister der Volksmacht für Technologie sagt
Jorge Arriaza, Schwiegersohn des Hugo Chávez und - ganz ganz zufällig - auch "Minister der Volksmacht für Wissenschaft, Technologie und Innovation", erklärt nun, dass alles, was in Twitter über die Gesundheit des "comandante-presidente" steht, Lug und Trug sei, denn der Führer habe einen ruhigen Tag verbracht.
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| Die ägyptischen Pharaonen haben zumindest nachhaltige Werke unterstützt |
Arriaza befindet sich zur Zeit in Cuba, genauso wie der Vizepräsident Nicolás Maduro und seine Frau Cilia Flores, die ganz ganz zufällig die Procuradora der Republik ist.
Arriaza hat vor vielen Jahren an der öffentlichen Universidad Central de Venezuela Ausländische Studien studiert und konnte dank des damals schon vorhandenen Stipendiumprogramms Gran Mariscal de Ayacucho im Ausland studieren. Zur Zeiten sagen die useful idiots des Chavismo im Ausland, das alles sei zu Zeiten des Chávez eingeführt worden.
Nun zurück zur Gesundheit des Comandantes: was wir schon vorahnen können, ist dass er am 10. Januar bei der Nationalen Versammlung nicht auftreten wird.
Happy New Year! Frohes Neues Jahr! ¡Feliz Año Nuevo!
Tengo la sospecha de que tendremos un mejor tiempo en 2013.
Ich habe den Verdacht, dass wir eine bessere Zeit 2013 erleben werden.
I have the suspicion we will have a better time in 2013.
¡A disfrutar!
Viel Spaß!
Enjoy!
The French the French are not talking about
I found this funny: Frédéric Bouquet is a French Venezuelan security forces detained in 2009 together with a couple of Dominicans. The Venezuelan authorities accused Bouquet of being a member of a foreign security service, of illegally carrying weapons galore and planning some violent action, possibly trying to murder Hugo Chávez. Yesterday he was freed together with some other people like the investors from Econoinvest and Jesse Chacón's brother, Arné Chacón. The Russians, the Canadians, the Dutch, the US Americans reported on that. Iris Varela herself twitted the announcement. In France, only a provincial (although popular) newspaper, Ouest France, reported it. And then French conspiracy theorists from the left started to write about why the mainstream media was so quiet this time. And I have to say: they might be right. Why?
CNN said El Aissami had mentioned back in 2009 Monsieur Bouquet had spent some time in training in Israel. Here you can read more information from the Venezuelan side, and also here.
Est-ce qu'on en va laisser tomber cela?
Dem Chávez geht es sehr schlecht
In wenigen Minuten wird Maduro, der von Chávez Auserwählte, aus Havanna an das venezolanische Volk und an uns, "unwürdige Landesverräter", wenden, um eine Nachricht zu geben. Er war vor kurzem wieder nach Kuba geflogen, um mit dem kranken Caudillo zu sprechen.
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| Der Führer hat mir den Auftrag gegeben... |
Rory Carroll and the Comandante
Rory Carroll, a journalist from The Guardian, came to Venezuela in 2006. He had been working in Iraq for some time until he got kidnapped by Shiah militiamen. Before Iraq he was correspondent in several European countries, in the Middle East, in Afghanistan, in Pakistan and for many years in Africa. He probably thought Venezuela would be easier to report about. He was in for some surprises. He had just come to the region where the myth of El Dorado was born.
Shortly after his arrival, Rory went to an Aló Presidente, one of those shows where Chávez would be talking for hours and hours. Unexpectedly, Rory became the centre of attention on national TV for an hour or so: Chávez wanted a question from him. Rory asked what he thought was a simple question and he got a hell of a Chávez answer.
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| A different view on Venezuela |
Quite a lot of people, whether left or right, have no interest whatsoever in learning about how things are in a given place but how things fit in their scheme of ideas. The Guardian is a left newspaper or rather tends to be on the left and thus there were quite some readers shocked by what Rory was reporting. But criticism also came from the right - a lot. Rory had to deal with the great challenge of explaining Venezuela in the times of Chávez. On one side there are the right-winged fundamentalists or just embittered Chávez haters. On the other side there is the legio-n of people who wanted by all means to see Chávez as the saviour that would finally come from the oppressed nations.
One of the most difficult parts about explaining Venezuela is that you do have to explain a lot of economic stuff and most people do not give a damn about that. Most people, in fact, have a very short attention span, specially in politics. I believe he did an excellent job. He went to places all around Venezuela. He listened to both sides. To all sides. He analysed lots of material, including stuff most journalists don't want to deal with. This year Rory moved to the States to report mostly but not exclusively about our gringo neighbours.
Fortunately, he has just written a book about Venezuela under Chávez. The book will come out of press next March. If you want to have a better understanding of what Venezuela has been about, go for it.
Chávez government freed Arne Chacón, the billionaire
Well...what can I say? This guy, Arne Chacón, a military coup monger who is the brother of one of Chávez's friends, Jesse Chacón, became a billionaire in just a couple of years...thanks to certain very murky transactions and connections. He was so obviously corrupt that Chávez had to put him under jail...after opposition people had been denouncing the man for years.
Isn't the opposition going to say something about this? Or was the trick from the government "we free one of ours and several of yours and you shut up"?
What a shame for a country!
A sweet mutation from Venezuela
No, I am not talking about a Venezuelan politician. I am talking about the Cara Cara oranges.
I love oranges. I drink several litres of oranges every week. My granddad was growing oranges (and cotton) for a living many decades ago. I'm sure my ancestors were eating sweet oranges since they first arrived in Spain in the XVI century. Spaniards brought them to Venezuela from the first contacts on. And oranges grew well. They grew very well in Venezuela. The region around the Valencia Lake is said to be the one with the best oranges in the country. That land is extremely fertile. Unfortunately, most of said land is now urbanized, full of slums, shopping centres, roads. Venezuelans never thought in a sustainable way. But I digress.
Oranges. When I think of my childhood I think a lot of oranges under the sun and the scent coming from their skins. And I think of the discussions that farmers had in the Northern part of Valencia Lake's Basin about what the sweetest oranges were.
The Cara Cara oranges firstly appeared in Venezuela in the seventies. They are navel oranges, with a secondary protrusion Their flesh is reddish and they are particularly sweet, even if according to my tongue there are other sweeter types.
Is Chávez that ill?
Yesterday a French citizen accused of one of trying to carry out a "magnicidios", assassination against the president, was expelled from Venezuela. According to the regime, Frédéric Laurence Bouquet was a secret agent of the French Republic. Do they want us to believe Sarkozy was trying to kill Chávez or do they think he was a mercenary AND an agent? In any case, the French know very little about this. Is this action part of the usual liberation of prisoners at the end of the year and not as Miguel says, part of a softening, or a change?
One of the self-styled revolution's strongmen, Diosdado Cabello, declared in another kitsch seizure that "everyday we have to be like Chávez and then we will have revolution for a long time".
And Florida-based doctor-gossip star Marquina claims Chávez has had lung thrombosis.
The question is: when will elections take place?
How to promote underdevelopment and autocracies in the XXI Century
If you have a country where the average citizen has very low education levels, whee most think the country is rich just because of its natural resources and you are the ruling party and you have no ethics: what would you do to remain in power? Would you use tanks and police forces to compel people to follow you? No. You just pawn the country's future by selling very cheaply those natural resources to a new colonizing country.
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| A socialist microwave |
That is how the ministry of "the Popular Power for Trade", Edmée Betancourt, is telling us now that the "social" program for household appliances is going to be expanded.
Venezuela's current government has so far spent over 20 billion dollars in what is called the Chinese Fund. The Fund gives China millions of barrels of oil for many years and in exchange for that Venezuela's ruling party, government and state, which are basically one and the same, get, among other goodies, Chinese refrigerators, Chinese washing machines, Chinese flat screens and Chinese mixers...to be sold at "socialist prices" among would-be voters...sorry, I mean citizens.
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| A socialist corporation |
The Bolivar is overvalued and the currency exchange is fixed so that a Bolivarian mafia has taken hold of the system. That makes imported devices very expensive. The government says prices at the private market are so high because of capitalism...even if the same or better devices are cheaper in Europe or the States or even other Latin American countries. So now Bolivarian employees sell the Chinese devices at very low prices, at "socialist prices", as the Chávez employees claim.
Most people don't know those Haier washing machines and Haier flat screens are actually being paid by the petrodollars that won't be invested in their children's schools and their children's hospitals in the decade to come.
But then: Chávez revolutionaries really want to win next year's elections.
Ethics doesn't matter.
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| Socialist washing machine, socialist refrigerator, socialist microwave and socialist exhaust fan |
A typical Venezuelan region and crime under the "revolution"
Carabobo has about 2,4 million inhabitants. How many of them will have been murdered since 1 December until Monday of next week? If you want to see the trend and patterns, you can check out this.
This is macabre but we need to talk about this. Venezuela's murder rate was about 19 per 100000 inhabitants in 1998, when Chávez was elected. The rate is now over 65.
New York City, with 3 times as many inhabitants as Carabobo, had slightly over 400 murders in the whole of 2012, a new record low. Military strongman Chávez has repeatedly said crime is engendered by capitalism.
A happy new year for the military in Venezuela?
I am facing a complicated week end and I may not be able to write much until next year. OK, next Tuesday.... Thus, just in case, I wanted to write with some leisure right now to wish you all a Happy New Year and to write some about what is in store for Venezuela.
The big issue is whenever ifever Chavez comes back alive to Venezuela, and if alive, in any shape or form to rule. Let's state it: his messianic way of ruling can only be sustained if he is able to project vigor. From a wheel chair, halting steps or whatever disability he carries it is going to be very difficult to get away with stuff the way he used to do. In a country of such willful dependency people need to know that they are going to get it. After 3/4 of our history under a military jackboot the forceful caudillo seems "normal" to most of us.
Certainly chavismo is aware of Chavez demise and has been so for quite a while. This has not stopped them from speeding it up by forcing Chavez into a campaign that he should have never undertook. Not only it was a fraud against the nation and the good faith of the chavista voter who deserved more respect than that, but it is pushing us into a multi layered crisis. First it was a fraud that needs to be paid more than just through the mere decease of Chavez. Those who stroke his ego to push him to run, from the Castro mafia to our local one, will have to be exposed for that crime (among the many others they perpetrated). And that they will try to blame each other for that crime is going to make things even more complicated.
Second, Chavez had a chance to settle the issue on his own, with more leisure, had he decided to do so a year ago. But not only his ego got into the way but so many people were afraid to lose their privileges that all pushed for him to stay. Now he had to design a successor almost in a rush, when he could not delay it any longer. As a consequence the apparent heir, Maduro, is already challenged by the military through Diosdado Cabello.
It is essential to understand that Venezuela is a military dictatorship. That so many people still pretend it to be otherwise is irrelevant now. The dictatorship is pushing itself in the open. Of the 23 new governors 12 are military or related to the military. A majority growing though each election. The military also hold some of the most strategic positions in the government from ministries to airport and harbor administration, where the money goes through. Through Diosdado Cabello they hold the National Assembly which as expected under a military has become even less of a debating body.
The military has prevailed over an always rather weak civilian component of chavismo because the army is the only thing that Chavez understands and trusts, as much as he can trust anyone in his psychopathology. And he understands even better how the bottom of any military officer promotion is always resentful of the top and he skilfully promoted those who were willing to swear allegiance to him. As a result the military in charge may be wily but they are not intelligent, not even smart, nor well prepared, nor honest for that matter as out transformation into a narco state has amply proven. That Venezuela is so run down is due to the mediocrity of the military "establishment" as the military has much less trouble to live in generalized chaos as they have the means to impose order and privileges in their immediate surroundings. Why should they care about a potholed country when they just can take a chopper to go wherever they want, at state expense of course. Why should they care about lack of electricity of water when they can have the conscripts dig a reservoir or demand the purchase of electric generators for state security reasons? The high ranking military do not suffer like the rest of us.
Now, there are two kinds of military in power: those that got rich through administrative corruption and those that got rich through drug trafficking (and administrative corruption too, of course). As far as local guilt this does not make much difference since many in the civilian wing of chavismo are delighted at the idea of destroying the USofA through drugs. The problem here is that if the civilian chavismo has blessed their actions and new wealth, the eventual reckoning will be all for the military alone. As it is always the case in decadent military regime, there is all sorts of attempts at keeping power at all costs to avoid such reckoning which now has more international possibilities than local ones in what is today a morally bankrupt country. 14 years of chavista crap come with an amoral transformation, it cannot be helped. Even the bulk of opposition politicians range from bland to spineless as the moral fiber of the country, whatever that one was, has dissolved.
The mystery, if you will, is that Chavez chose a civilian. I think that Maduro, in what was available to Chavez, was certainly the best choice. But still, why a civilian when the military are already in charge? We cannot know the final answer yet. Maybe it was because Chavez and the Castro thought that through a Civilian the colonial relationship would be better preserved? Maybe it was just a matter of Ego for Chavez that thought his glorified memory would have a better chance to survive if his successor was a civilian? Maybe the army was too divided to push forward an unavoidable candidate? The thing here is that the civilian side is in fact the weaker one. It is too radical for a long term shot at holding the country because the economic realities will weaken it faster than a military hand that will not be afraid to apply repression until it think it can turn around the situation.
No matter what happens with oil prices there is a 2013 reality that neither civilian or military can avoid. Oil production cannot increase fast enough to cover the ever growing populist needs. The price of gas and of goods in general needs to go up as subvention is not possible, not to the extent it is already happening today. No matter what cooked up statistics are shown, the real productive economy is not growing, real employment is not created, inflation shows no sign to go below 20%. To add insult to injury, the longer transition to post Chavez lasts, the longer it will take to take the measures that should have been taken already last year.
In short, what is at stake here is whether the civilian or the military wing of chavismo will prevail. I think that the military wing is the more determined because it is the one that has the most to lose. It may even be willing to negotiate with a wimp like Capriles and his friends. Then again this may not be that bad: what is more costly for the country: a civil war or "forgiving" a massive looting of the state? Unfortunately I am afraid that the civilian wing of chavismo is today unable to compromise, too ideological, too many years insulting the other side, too mean, too willing to cheat. The pragmatic fraction inside the civilian wing is too likely to be swept away when push comes to shove.
I hope I am wrong.
The big issue is whenever ifever Chavez comes back alive to Venezuela, and if alive, in any shape or form to rule. Let's state it: his messianic way of ruling can only be sustained if he is able to project vigor. From a wheel chair, halting steps or whatever disability he carries it is going to be very difficult to get away with stuff the way he used to do. In a country of such willful dependency people need to know that they are going to get it. After 3/4 of our history under a military jackboot the forceful caudillo seems "normal" to most of us.
Certainly chavismo is aware of Chavez demise and has been so for quite a while. This has not stopped them from speeding it up by forcing Chavez into a campaign that he should have never undertook. Not only it was a fraud against the nation and the good faith of the chavista voter who deserved more respect than that, but it is pushing us into a multi layered crisis. First it was a fraud that needs to be paid more than just through the mere decease of Chavez. Those who stroke his ego to push him to run, from the Castro mafia to our local one, will have to be exposed for that crime (among the many others they perpetrated). And that they will try to blame each other for that crime is going to make things even more complicated.
Second, Chavez had a chance to settle the issue on his own, with more leisure, had he decided to do so a year ago. But not only his ego got into the way but so many people were afraid to lose their privileges that all pushed for him to stay. Now he had to design a successor almost in a rush, when he could not delay it any longer. As a consequence the apparent heir, Maduro, is already challenged by the military through Diosdado Cabello.
It is essential to understand that Venezuela is a military dictatorship. That so many people still pretend it to be otherwise is irrelevant now. The dictatorship is pushing itself in the open. Of the 23 new governors 12 are military or related to the military. A majority growing though each election. The military also hold some of the most strategic positions in the government from ministries to airport and harbor administration, where the money goes through. Through Diosdado Cabello they hold the National Assembly which as expected under a military has become even less of a debating body.
The military has prevailed over an always rather weak civilian component of chavismo because the army is the only thing that Chavez understands and trusts, as much as he can trust anyone in his psychopathology. And he understands even better how the bottom of any military officer promotion is always resentful of the top and he skilfully promoted those who were willing to swear allegiance to him. As a result the military in charge may be wily but they are not intelligent, not even smart, nor well prepared, nor honest for that matter as out transformation into a narco state has amply proven. That Venezuela is so run down is due to the mediocrity of the military "establishment" as the military has much less trouble to live in generalized chaos as they have the means to impose order and privileges in their immediate surroundings. Why should they care about a potholed country when they just can take a chopper to go wherever they want, at state expense of course. Why should they care about lack of electricity of water when they can have the conscripts dig a reservoir or demand the purchase of electric generators for state security reasons? The high ranking military do not suffer like the rest of us.
Now, there are two kinds of military in power: those that got rich through administrative corruption and those that got rich through drug trafficking (and administrative corruption too, of course). As far as local guilt this does not make much difference since many in the civilian wing of chavismo are delighted at the idea of destroying the USofA through drugs. The problem here is that if the civilian chavismo has blessed their actions and new wealth, the eventual reckoning will be all for the military alone. As it is always the case in decadent military regime, there is all sorts of attempts at keeping power at all costs to avoid such reckoning which now has more international possibilities than local ones in what is today a morally bankrupt country. 14 years of chavista crap come with an amoral transformation, it cannot be helped. Even the bulk of opposition politicians range from bland to spineless as the moral fiber of the country, whatever that one was, has dissolved.
The mystery, if you will, is that Chavez chose a civilian. I think that Maduro, in what was available to Chavez, was certainly the best choice. But still, why a civilian when the military are already in charge? We cannot know the final answer yet. Maybe it was because Chavez and the Castro thought that through a Civilian the colonial relationship would be better preserved? Maybe it was just a matter of Ego for Chavez that thought his glorified memory would have a better chance to survive if his successor was a civilian? Maybe the army was too divided to push forward an unavoidable candidate? The thing here is that the civilian side is in fact the weaker one. It is too radical for a long term shot at holding the country because the economic realities will weaken it faster than a military hand that will not be afraid to apply repression until it think it can turn around the situation.
No matter what happens with oil prices there is a 2013 reality that neither civilian or military can avoid. Oil production cannot increase fast enough to cover the ever growing populist needs. The price of gas and of goods in general needs to go up as subvention is not possible, not to the extent it is already happening today. No matter what cooked up statistics are shown, the real productive economy is not growing, real employment is not created, inflation shows no sign to go below 20%. To add insult to injury, the longer transition to post Chavez lasts, the longer it will take to take the measures that should have been taken already last year.
In short, what is at stake here is whether the civilian or the military wing of chavismo will prevail. I think that the military wing is the more determined because it is the one that has the most to lose. It may even be willing to negotiate with a wimp like Capriles and his friends. Then again this may not be that bad: what is more costly for the country: a civil war or "forgiving" a massive looting of the state? Unfortunately I am afraid that the civilian wing of chavismo is today unable to compromise, too ideological, too many years insulting the other side, too mean, too willing to cheat. The pragmatic fraction inside the civilian wing is too likely to be swept away when push comes to shove.
I hope I am wrong.
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