 |
| Woman breaking CNE rules, Sean boy, Chavez and booed Ameliach |
The Chavez campaign is not doing very well. And it keeps adding errors. One does not need to read polls to sense that the ship is adrift, unable to land anywhere. Even BBC's new man in Caracas (a woman this election, Sarah Grainger) senses it as opposed to the now discredited cheerleaders of, say, Reuters who have bought Chavez putative victory bait, hook and sink; and today once again! Proving that Reuters is the lone species to trip over and over the same fake polls. A brief analysis of what happened in Carabobo state today will illustrate my point.
We are now in the middle of the campaign and Chavez has all the trouble in the world to make a couple of outings a week when Capriles is hitting the roads daily, for miles and miles. Not only that, but Chavez is isolated from the scant masses on top of a float of sorts which makes him look sillily distant. Bad enough as it is, his cross current initiatives make things worse, while without any logical explanation Sean Penn is watching as if he were a big star bringing votes in Carabobo....
In Carabobo Chavez had been promoting Maduro, current foreign minister (if we can call his role charitably this way) for the governor seat. Well, nobody ever really believed Maduro would be the final candidate and it has been months that Puerto Cabello mayor, Lacava, had been promoting himself "just in case" Maduro were called elsewhere in the regime. Today, Francisco Ameliach was named the official candidate. Before entering in some of the possible reasons for that, let's note that apparently some in the crowd were bold enough to shout their discontent at Chavez and call for Lacava (which doomed his political future, by the way). Chavez got pissed and showed what a great democrat he is, attacking the hecklers, stating that he is the only one that matters and that he is the one deciding who runs where. The video below will tell you even if you do not understand Spanish (note that for once the attendance was better than usual, maybe a Sean Penn effect? maybe Lacava organizational skills? And also note that some clueless guy wears the cap of Capriles on the left side, the one that the CNE tried to forbid....).
This is much worse than what the folklore part of it would lead you to think.
First, governors elections are early December. The opposition has all of its guys up and running and Chavez is STILL deciding who runs or not, and keeps changing them!!!! They lecture about such mistakes in "Electoral strategies 101". A political movement would be only so careless if they knew that a defeat in October would seal the fate of the Ameliaches of the PSUV. In other words, a clear admission by the PSUV that without Chavez they are nothing, that they are losing and that all priorities have to be focused on him.
Second, even if admitting that such a name change is needed, the timing and manner and choice is dismal, reflecting how out of touch Chavez has grown. For his supporters to dare to defy Chavez as they did today tells us volumes. For Chavez to pick up a military reconverted in shadow political operator and "prosperous bolibourgeois" over Lacava, who for all his own faults at least hits the streets of Carabobo is poor judgment from Chavez, an indication of a defensive posture, of rounding up the old carts. Ameliach has gotta be one of the most discredited figure of the PSUV, in the PSUV!!! But he is a 1992 military......
Meanwhile Capriles was in chavista heartland of Caracas, Catia neighborhood, with quite a turnout himself. Which did not stop him from making yet another positive apparition in Zulia state that afternoon, with the well established candidate for the state house.....
Draw your own conclusions.
---------------------------------
NOTE: why is Maduro out of the ring? One explanation already out on twitter is that Chavez is not going to make it and that Maduro has to prepare the transition. Castro's orders even! Whether this is true is irrelevant: it has been clear all along that Maduro was a reluctant candidate for anything and that what he likes is the Caracas scene. The more so that Maduro has no administrative talent has established in his now long ministry tenure, is bored by it. Plus, he certainly cannot watch over his succession rights from Valencia.
--------------------------------
UPDATE
Coinciding with the Olympics, the megalomaniac tantrum temper of Chavez inspired Weil yet another brilliant cartoon
