Message to EFE et alia: Venezuela's Alpha and Omega

I don't think you have to be a genius or an economist to grasp this but, apparently, few journalists and historians and politicians abroad grasp it: oil prices are still at a record high this year. The price drop during the last few months could so far be considered as a local minimum. EFE and others keep repeating Chávez has had to deal with oil price drops...but again: they are just local minima. Oil prices - I repeat - oil prices haven't been as high as they are today for several decades now. This doesn't have to do with an anti-imperialist strategy, with "just deciding to sell oil at a higher price and not like the compradores were doing". It has to do with supply and demand. It has to do with China's gigantic evolution and to an extent that of many other countries developing and demanding more oil.

Chávez's regime is still receiving much more money than what several previous governments got - inflation considered. Please, put the price drop of the last few months in context.

Below you see OPEC's average price evolution. Venezuela's crude oil is generally cheaper, but the price evolution is very similar: ups and downs go more or less like here

¡Ay, MERCOSUR! ¡Quien te viera!

MERCOSUR jalando
Si alguien tenia duda alguna sobre la capacidad de MERCOSUR en mejorar las cosas en nuestra rincón del planeta, hoy se puede quedar tranquilo o tranquila: el MERCOSUR no esta aquí para mejorar la calidad de vida de los pueblos, esta aquí para consolidar el club de presidenticos y presidenticas mediocres y los que le tiran plata.

No nos engañemos con lo que paso ayer en Mendoza, por mas que lo medio blanqueen reportes como los de BBCMundo: en ningún momento se defendió la democracia, sino que se aseguraron las cuentas por pagar.

Puede ser que haya muchísimos motivos para sancionar a Paraguay, hasta llevarlo a una suspensión temporal, o quizás a una exclusión frontal. Pero hasta donde yo sepa se le violaron, tal vez, los derechos a una sola persona, un presidente, que no era ningún paragón de virtudes para empezar, quien personalmente violo sus votos de lealtad y cuanto precepto de ética se le cruzo en el camino.  Sea lo que sea, eso no era excusa para aprovecharse de un error político para pasar sobre lo que era una voluntad reiteradamente expresada por un cuerpo democrático y legislativo que rechazó una y otra vez el ingreso de Venezuela por no cumplir con el mandato de Ushuaia. Porque si a eso vamos, el gobierno de Venezuela no se cansa en violar tratados internacionales, su propia constitución y cuanto precepto de ética se le cruza en el camino. Al lado del parlamento de Venezuela las vagabunderías que hacen otros parlamentos regionales son juegos de niños.
En ABC Paraguay están clarísimos

Con la entrada de Venezuela al MERCOSUR a pesar de la expresa negativa de su miembro mas débil se hace claro que a Brasil y Argentina solo le importan lo suyo.  No nos olvidemos que ya Brasil se quejó amargamente de la negativa del senado Paraguayo, llegando al chantaje.  Con la entrada de Venezuela al MERCOSUR a pesar de Ushuaia y de la renuncia de Chavez a la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos se confirma que MERCOSUR es para los negocios imperialistas del Brasil, y nada mas. No dejemos de observar que ahora Brasil critica dicha Corte que tuvo la mala idea de defender los derechos de los nativos del Amazonas.

Lo que paso ayer fue una alianza de los acreedores de Venezuela para que está, al entrar al MERCOSUR, pague sus cuentas, sea quien sea entre a Miraflores en febrero del 2013. Y que quien sea que entre a Miraflores no pueda estructurar una política económica de producción nacional que pueda afectar las abundantes exportaciones del MERCOSUR a Venezuela.

Pobre los incautos que pedían a gritos la entrada de Venezuela a MERCOSUR como Antonio Ledezma que hizo un tour al respecto.  Ahora podrán ver como el MERCOSUR no va a levantar un dedo cuando a Chávez se le ocurra su próximo desacato constitucional. Eso si, mientras siga comprando y pagando, que es para eso que está Ushuaia, para chantajes.

Chávez buys more Russian tanks but Venezuela has too few schools

Russian newspaper Kommersant (via Lenta) tells us Chávez wants to get another set of 100 T-72B1V tanks. The T-72 is a slightly improved version of this thing:



I reckon they are still for the "asymmetric war" the caudillo so often talks about. Or are they not? In any case, they will be paid with part of the $4 billion credit the Chávez regime got from the Russians last October just to buy weapons made in Russia. 

According to Kommersant, Venezuela's debt for the Russian arms deals amounts to some 7.2 billion dollars (2.2 billion from a credit in 2009, 4 billion from that credit of 2011 and a little more from some other times). Most of the Venezuela money for buying this stuff does not come from the defence budget but from FONDEN, the Fondo Para Desarrollo Endógeno, which is supposed to be money for sustainable development. European sycophants of Chávez still say Venezuela's defence expenditure is peanuts based on the defence budget and comparisons to - oh, what else? - the USA.

The loans are linked to Venezuela giving Russian companies preferential access to oil fields such as Carabobo 2. Rosneft' is the main beneficiary but Garprom Neft', Lukoil, Surgutneftegas and TNK-VR are also involved in Junin 6 thanks to the military caste of my country committed national resources for the Russian weapons industry. Igor' Sechin, one of Putin's closest pals and like Putin a KGB man, was the guy doing the final killing.

Meanwhile, the children attending the Francisco de Miranda school, very close to where I grew up, have classes under the skies...the school is just too small, there are three classrooms for 250 pupils.

I wonder what new wonders Chávez's sycophants abroad will write about at this stage. Will they still say that there is less illiteracy in Venezuela than in Germany as communist-turned-social-market-expert Sahra Wagenknecht says, "according to UNESCO"*? Yeah, she knows because she has been to Venezuela. And I am an expert on Swahili.


Hallo, Sahra...was sagst Du jetzt? Es ist "entweder Chávez oder Bush"? Entweder Chávez oder die Vaterlandsverräter, die Un-Venezolaner


*Please, check out what scholar Francisco Rodríguez said about the education scam in my country.


"I love you madly" and other things Sasha told Hugo


I stumbled upon an article from Belarussian Telegraph, not your newspaper unless you are really interested in Slavic-Venezuelan relations.

As you may or may not know, dictator Lukashenko was on a visit to the Land of Grace.On a speech there he said he was sure his buddy Hugo was going to win again. "I know that you will win over them". He didn't just say "win" but "them". Tibisay Lucena, you better listen to Lukashenko! 

The Master of Belarus also said that whoever knows him knows he is not going over the top praising people but if there weren't any Hugo Chávez, "there wouldn't be these projects and successes  and Belarus wouldn't be in Venezuela". Sure, buddy, for the same reason Chile has more trade with Argentina than with Kyrgyzstan: it doesn't make much sense to do otherwise and they are no successes for the Venezuelan nation but overpriced projects or simply scams.
It goes both ways

Belarus' dictator also said most Venezuelans supported the strong relationships between Belarus and Venezuela (yeah) and that even if there are some "mates" (tovarish is the word he used) who are opposed to that due to the "sharp political moment" Belarussians came to Venezuela as friends to help "our patriot-president". He reiterated that Chávez was his friend and (hence, I guess), friend of the Belarus nation and last but not least, Belarus' government will do anything, "anything he - Chávez, my friend Chávez" - tells them to do.

And I suppose that means also getting the Belarus KGB to further help Venezuelan military and intelligence officers in learning more tricks on "intelligence", including eavesdropping and sabotage at the Belarus Academy of War (Военная академия Республики Беларусь).


Brasil: ¿Qué pasará si los hispanoamericamericanos siguen así?

Aquí tienen la evolución porcentual del crecimiento demográfico en Suramérica entre los años 1900 y 2010.

El peso demográfico de Brasil ha aumentado poco a poco. Esto no quiere decir gran cosa: no significa que crezca de manera proporcional su peso socioeconómico o político.

Pero Brasil también ha conseguido ampliar su territorio a costa del resto de Suramérica desde tiempos de la Colonia. La expansión se hizo en numerosos conflictos: tras la Guerra de Paraguay, tras la Guerra del Acre, en una expansión cuando los gobiernos civico-militares vecinos se la pasaban guerreándose a sí mismos o robando a sus pueblos. 




Brasil sigue creciendo en lo político y en lo económico. Sigue siendo un país pobre, pero definitivamente esto no será así para siempre. Aunque otros países como Chile han logrado a veces avances relativos mayores, el peso de Brasil va generando una dinámica particular.


Se habla de integración suramericana, pero los pueblos hispanoparlantes tienen que preguntarse si es conveniente tener primero una integración donde un estado tiene ya la mitad del peso demográfico o si es preferible realizar una integración entre sí. Los presidentes de Brasil ayudan a los empresarios de su país a aumentar el superávit comercial con Bolivia, con Venezuela, y se ocupan de que el club de Presidentes de Latinoamérica siga compuesto por personas que sirvan a los intereses brasileños.

Los militares y políticos hispanoparlantes siempre han sido miopes, increíblemente miopes. Chávez ha declarado mil veces que está independizando a Venezuela de los Estados Unidos. Lo que no dice es que la va regalando Venezuela un poquito más cada día a empresarios de Brasil, de China, al gobierno cubano.

A mediano plazo, Brasil va a asumir una posición más y más intervencionista en Suramérica si los suramericanos de habla española no procuran disminuir sus nacionalismos feudales-militares sin visión.





Food, family and parties

A loyal reader asked me to speak now of the things I will miss. With the visa stamped on my passport, telling me how obvious and definite is our departure; I think I have no other choice but to listen to this reader’ claims. Be warned, of how complicated it is for me (and I think for anyone who is about to leave home) to speak of this topic. Some things can be defined easily, will some others can’t be explained with words –even less, with English words -. Plus, all this entry will be nothing more than a supposition. I’m still here, in Caracas; and I can only imagine how much I will miss home. The real nostalgia will only come when I put my feet in a foreign land. With this warning being made, I’ll start.

Food. I will miss our food. They say that food on every place is unique. Lately, I have had the amazing opportunity of traveling a lot to United States; and then I went to Mexico for my Honey Moon (is my second time there, I made a long trip to Mexico while I was still at college, to be part of a United Nations Model). As much as I love Mexican food and as much as I love Cheesecake Factory and Starbucks, is not the same.

For start, I feel that breakfasts anywhere I’ve been but Venezuela are just plain boring. I have shared this crazy theory with many Venezuelan friends and they agree. Starting with the “perico” (scrambled eggs with tomato and onion), the “arepas” with their million fillings to choose from, same with “empanadas”, the “criollo breakfast”, the “andino” breakfast and the “oriental” breakfast; then you have to add all the options available at the Venezuelan-portuguese panaderías (Bakeries): “cachitos”, “pastelitos” of cream cheese and turkey jam, of “paisa” (white) cheese, plus all the sweets.

Then, all the juices. Anywhere else I’ve been, when you say juice you think on cranberry, orange, perhaps strawberry and apple juice. Nothing else. Anywhere you go in Venezuela you can be mad if you are not offered at least four or five kinds of natural juice made straight from fresh fruit in that moment: papaya, watermelon, melon, orange, peach, mango, pineapple, passion fruit… and then crazy mixes like orange with papaya and carrot – one of my personal favorites.

To finish, for breakfast, there’s our hot chocolate (which is a lot stronger than anywhere else) or coffee – all kinds and combinations of coffee with milk (I can count at least six mayor kinds: "negro, cortado, guayoyo, marrón, con leche, tetero" - there are variations of those and none corresponds with any Starbucks, by the way). I'm aware I bored you with my long explanation of what we have for breakfast. But during my HoneyMoon, my husband and I stayed in a great hotel and all we could have for breakfast was, besides the yummy Mexican breakfast: scrambled eggs, omelette, pancakes, oatmeal and waffles. And orange juice. Watermelon juice? What’s that?

Perhaps I’m mistaken, but given my limited traveling experience, I tend to believe there is great value in the Venezuelan cuisine, and our food should be better known abroad. I will try to keep the Venezuelan taste in my kitchen anywhere I go. I’m traveling with a few Venezuelan’ cooking books and my family’ recipes; carefully handwritten by my mom. But I have two problems: first, I don’t know how to cook beside the basics and second, I won’t find some key ingredients of many dishes (specially, white cheese). As much as I try, I’m sure there are flavors I will be unable to make, to taste while I’m abroad.

Of course, nothing will be more missed than to share those dishes with my family and friends. I will miss not only them but the dynamics we share: the endless family meetings on Sundays, the barbeques (different here than anywhere else), the domino tables, the noise, the long conversations on which everyone speaks at the same time on the same topics over and over again. I will miss the coffee tables and lunch times with my girlfriends, the long conversations I share with them and the endless laughs. I will miss many things I can’t find the proper words to tell you. I will miss many birthdays, weddings, graduation, football games, paellas. Perhaps I won’t be here when someone we love dies. I will miss being here in the hard times as well.

Last, but not least, I will miss the parties. I don’t party much – for not saying nothing at all. We are known – my husband and I- as the “old ones” because we are not into going to clubs and discos. We feel we have to spend a lot of money there just to dance uncomfortable in a small space with strangers. What we know as “party” is basically weddings and graduations (more weddings, given our age). We usually have one or two of those a month, there’s always a cousin or a friend or daughter of any of our parents’ friends who’s getting married and sent us an invite. And on those occasions, I’m truly happy. The food, again, unique, the people look amazing (otherwise I confess I spend a great time criticizing a horrible dress) and the music, is marvelous. I usually get tired of a "reggeton" set that lasts more than 5 minutes, but the first two minutes are funny, sexy, enjoyable. - Thank God that hardcore reggeton trend is finally over- I’m a terrible, terrible, dancer but I love to make turns and turns while a “merengue” or a “salsa” tune is playing. I love to sing along some “bachatas” and “vallenatos”…

I won’t go to any party abroad even similar to the ones we have in Venezuela. Of course, I will go to many parties, and I will have loads of fun and I am going to meet great and interesting people and taste new dishes but it will never be like home. My best friend spend a few weeks in London and told me about a Salsa Club she and her boyfriend went to – “It was so weird”- She said – “Everyone was in awe looking at us dancing” – That night, in that club, they were probably the only couple who danced salsa actually feeling the music, in a genuine way. A lot of people take dance lessons, and learn a lot of complicated salsa steps I will never know, and they dance beautifully and have a lot of fun. But that same people, can watch my friend and his boyfriend dancing, and although they don’t know a lot of steps, they admit there is something different about them.

So this is it: What I will miss once I leave Venezuela for a few years? Food, family and friends; and parties. You might expected my answer to be deeper, to talk about certain “cultural” things about Venezuela, or perhaps you expected me to speak about special places, some tourist destinations. But those are secondary next of what I already mentioned. Venezuela is not only a place to me, obviously. It is a part of myself I do not always like, a part I do not accept entirely, but determines who I am. Determines the character I’ll carry with me wherever I’ll go, despite of what I leave behind.




That Paraguay thing: Dilma Roussef is the most ridiculous of them all

I would love to make an extensive article on Paraguay but time is not with me.  Suffice a single observation: when a "coup" is against a president, all raise arms in anguish, including Dilma Roussef that should have known better, if anything as to the responsibilities of her continent sized country and the still smarting fiasco of Lula in Honduras.  However when the "coup" is against a parliament of a judicial system, nobody cares to talk much about it.  The hypocrisy is deafening.  When Chavez did a parliamentary coup in 2010 against the elected new National Assembly, having the lame duck one empty it of any power for 18 months and castrating it of any significant influence for the rest of its term, nobody at UNASUR, nobody at Mercosur, nobody at OAS did much protesting, if it were not for, guess what, the Paraguayan Senate.

I am not going to enter into any consideration of whether Lugo had it coming, just pointing out that with a year left in his term maybe it is not worth the grief.  The precedents in Venezuela and Ecuador should have been kept in mind.

No, my point is that the "outrage" is in part at the tiny Paraguayan Senate for not allowing the corrupt business and governmental practices of big and powerful Brazil and Argentina with Venezuela run free of any control.  Mercosur may die with Lugo and I, for one, will not miss it.

There, somebody had to say it.

Away for a while

An unexpected trip takes me away of Venezuela for maybe 3 weeks.  Already blogging was rather light and the heart not on it as it should.  So you may infer that there is a real chance of no post for three weeks.  But I have my camera, my lap top, even a tablet now (the play book of blackberry, of course, the tablet to have in Venezuela) and enough airports where to kill time.  So who knows, maybe a light "where's Waldoniel" for old time's sake, pictures of things I eat, etc..  anything but Venezuela. :-)

Der venezolanische Militärführer und das Vaterland


Der seit 13 Jahren amtierende Präsident und Caudillo Hugo Chávez hat eine Debatte mit Henrique Capriles, dem Kandidat der alternativen Kräfte, abgelehnt. Nun sagte er, er würde sich schämen, gegen ein solches "Unwesen" zu debattieren. "Ich würde lieber ein Schwergewicht vor mir haben". Chávez hat übrigens niemals an einer Debatte teilgenommen. Ferner erklärte der Militär, seine Bewegung, der Chavismus, sei nicht Chávez, sondern "Vaterland" pur...ein Chávez-Anhänger sei ein Patriot und diejenigen, die Vaterland wollen, sind mit Chávez, es gäbe keinen anderen Weg". Wo haben wir das schon mal gehört?

Der Meinungsforschungsfirma Hinterlaces zufolge hat der Caudillo, der das Land im Laufe des längsten Erdölbooms der Geschichte regiert, einen klaren Vorsprung gegenüber Capriles: 51% gegen 34% der Stimmen.

Der Präsident hat heute Viktor Sheiman, einem weissrussichen  Militär mit KGB-Verbindungen und engstem Freund des Diktators Lukaschenkos, die Medaille "Stern von Carabobo" erteilt. Bald wird Lukaschenko selbst Venezuela besuchen. Wahrscheinlich will der slawische Autokrat sicher sein, dass das Erdöl weiter Richtung Minsk fliesst.

Caracas ist eine chaotische Stadt. Die Abgasen der Autos werden sehr deutlich gespürt. Es gibt kaum Lebensräume für Kultur, für Krankenhäuser. Die Militärs wollen aber den Militärflughafen nun zum Teil in eine Rennstrecke für Formula 1 verwandeln. Der Grund? Der frühere Militär und nun Formula-1 Pilot Maldonado, der dank Millionen Spende nun endlich was gewonnen hat, unterstützt öffentlich den Caudillo.

Der Militär Chávez wird von Sahra Wagenknecht, Bundestagsabgeordnete, als grosser Demokrat und Held angesehen. Die Deutsche sagt, sie weiss, wovon sie redet, denn sie war in meinem Land. Vielleicht werde ich mich von nun an Deutschlandkenner nennen...ich war wesentlich länger in Sahras Land als sie in meinem.


Polls from hell, and Reuters taking them at face value


Long time readers know that I have long ago stopped putting major credence on Venezuelan polling companies.  I only follow Datanalisis as relatively more accurate than others (it did good in the recent primaries for example) and Keller who in spite of all his troubles may be the best one at illustrating tendencies.  Consultores 21 is not bad too.  But no matter what, in the country of the Tascon List, it is wise not to rely too much on polls and more on your own historical analysis since too many people are unwilling to say what they really think.  Such skepticism has served me well, allowing me to predict the result of the legislative elections and the one of the primaries, and a rather good score on the 2008 regional ones.

This being said, it is necessary to break my rule and comment the latest of Datanalisis, that we know only through Reuters, written by Marianna Parraga who has more than once stumbled upon her Venezuela reporting with booh-boos that cannot be easily forgotten, to the point that many suspect her to be pro Chavez.  Far from me to go deep into her latest work because, well, it is a shoddy  piece of journalism, relying on a single undisclosed source for a private poll of which we know no detail, etc, etc...  Blogs, such as yours truly, are written with more seriousness than her Reuters reports!


No, what I want to address here is that so many people, in spite of all the evidence, are only too happy to buy such polls that predict a victory for Chavez even bigger than in 2006.  My point, for those still with me so far, is to remind a few truisms that should not be forgotten.In 2006 the result was Chavez 7.3 million (63%) and Rosales 4.3 million (37%).  That is, a victory by 26 points.  Today we are told to assume that Chavez is going to win by at least 20 points. I simply do not buy it, not even from Datanalisis, the more so that to this date we have no details on their poll where Capriles is behind by 16 points.  Why can I say that?

First, from my analysis of the primary result I am convinced that the electoral starting ground for Capriles is 5.3 million.  Unless his campaign were to collapse, which it is not doing yet, he cannot get less than 5.3 million votes.

Second, the last term of Chavez has been so calamitous that he simply cannot get more votes, EVEN if the Capriles campaign were to collapse.  Chavez will not get more than 7 million votes (assuming no cheating of course, but that is another story).  That is, in his best scenario Chavez wins by 1.3 million votes, or 57 to 43 points, 14 points maximum spread!

Third, not only Capriles launch was a resounding success, but his posterior events all around the country have been a big hit considering that his campaign does not have the means to ferry people the way chavismo does, requisitioning buses and forcing public employees to attend.  I understand that after 14 years of chavismo the enthusiasm is naturally in the opposition side as the chavista camp is voting more out of duty or habit than anything else; but still, such enthusiasm is not the mark of a collapsing campaign even though I am among the ones who think that the campaign is not the one we would wish to see.
In other words, I see nothing that would make me reconsider my calculations of last February, not even the way Chavez has skilfully managed his cancer as an emotional blackmail to his electorate.

The way I see things now, today, at present, is an even race with Chavez, still leading by a default of sorts of the electorate which is not used to the idea that things could change. But the official campaign has not started yet and even if today we may really be 47 to 53 in favor of Chavez (I cannot see it any higher than that today), there is still plenty of time for Capriles to turn around these numbers by election day.

If you really live and die by pollsters I would advise that you wait for a real Datanalisis poll (and not the one for a "private" client that shall remain nameless), the Keller trend that should be out by August and Consultores which has been silent long enough that soon we should hear from them. Make an average and live by that number. Be aware that chavismo has launched itself into a through and through polling war, with paid pollsters that used to be considered serious before (any one reading from Hinterlaces?). Surely such polls with the extended coverage in state media have an effect, albeit temporary.

Or take a deep breath, relax and come back here and read your favorite blogger number crunching that should start sometime in August :-)

Happily wasting money away on toys....

... in which we learn that not only Chavez/PDVSA are spending more on Pastor Maldonado ridiculous Formula 1 career than on Venezuelan main technological university, USB, but that with their spare change they also are sponsoring cars in other races such as Le Mans with team 44...  (hat tip: BDK)
The mind reels....
Then again PDVSA does not appear as sponsor but Avior Airlines which one wonders how in hell they manage to make enough money in Venezuela to sponsor such a thing.... Who are the owners of Avior these days? Duncan also is a sponsor...  What about CADIVI? Do they do dollars for such type of sponsoring that is of little use in Venezuela but no dollars for students abroad?

The French legislative elections

If you do not care about French politics or if good electoral maps leave you cold, you may skip this post altogether.

Today France held the fourth vote of its electoral cycle, 4 elections in two months, 4 lost week ends and thus a dismal participation today, at less than 60%.  It was the second round of the parliament election.  I am not surprised by the abstention, it is a consequence of the constitutional referendum of 2000 which shortened the presidential term from 7 to 5 years and "synchronized" presidential and legislative elections.  As such, Parliament is now a "consequence" of the presidential election and as such France has become, artificially, a presidential system with many of its negatives.  But I digress (I did vote NO in the 2000 referendum on that matter, by the way, and I have been proven right with time, just as my NO vote in Venezuela in 1999 has proven to be the right one also).

As expected Hollande will have the sought for majority in Parliament, with the small surprise that he will not need his environmentalist allies, and even less, his cumbersome far left potential allies, former communist, hardly reconstructed in many cases. We cannot even blame the right/far right rivalry for that as it seems that in popular vote the left parties might get 51% after all.  The far right of Marine Le Pen did not do as well as in April but still well enough that it probably caused the direct or indirect loss of at least a couple dozen seats that should have gone to the right which would have robbed the socialist of an outright majority of their own, thus freeing them of alliances to form a government.  The far right relative good score, because of the system, will only translate into three seats out of almost 600. We may be glad of that but it does not bode well for a system where the extreme right and left combined hold more than 20% of the vote but less than 3% of the seats.  Nobody wants them close to power but in a democracy all voices should be heard, no matter how tasteless they are.

The defeated UMP is now entering a difficult time.  Deprived of its leader as Sarkozy has retired right after his electoral defeat, deprived of a clear agenda, with no clear leadership in the future, and the prospect of seeing the Extreme Right depriving it of future victories in local elections, it squarely faces division.  That may not be so bad since until 2000 the right was divided into two large blocks that used the first round as a primary of sorts.  The advantage was the existence of second round "vote reservoir".  Now, whatever the UMP gets in the first round is pretty much it whereas the Socialists can still count of the not insignificant reservoir of the greens and far left.

The disastrous result for the UMP is that this monolithic presumption has over time cost it dearly.  In the last decade the Socialists have steadily gained, with allies or not, a very large majority of elective positions in France. They now control all regions but one, 60% of "départements", a large majority of the main cities and even the Senate.  Hollande has way more potential power than what Mitterrand had at his height!  Then again there is also Europe and Hollande on this respect has less options, at least on the economic scene, than Mitterrand had, which may explain why it is today easier for angered centrist or rightist to vote socialist to punish their leaders (as yours truly did by voting green today, and winning by the way, as Coronado won the South American district).

I think that if Hollande does not try any folly he should have 10 years ahead.  The way the system works, and the electoral schedule to come, even if the UMP were to renovate its leaders and programs fast, it cannot but chip away at the socialists for the next 2-3 years, thus not having enough of a local base to launch a national campaign 5 years from now, unless some providential leader comes forward fast.  And I see none of that since the UMP is into the hands of a tight group of leaders that will be very hard to renew as they seem allergic to primaries, something for which the Socialists seem to have found a cure and benefit from greatly.

But this review was a mere excuse for the part I really wanted to write about: the electoral maps.  Liberation did carry the day in that its maps were updated faster than anyone else, showing to us that even in a system where all votes are on pieces of paper, they can be counted fast and published fast, much, much faster than what the Venezuelan CNE does with all of its electronic system.  Note: even though there was 573 seats at stake, as far as I know there is less than a dozen protests and recount petitions.

The first map (click to enlarge if you wish) is at closing time.  It includes the results of those seats awarded in the first round because someone went above 50% of the vote already.  Note: Liberation is respectful since it could have included a handful more that were running "unopposed" since even though they did not get 50% in the first round, their opponents did not get enough votes to qualify for the second round.

At closing time, 8 PM French time

One hour later, Liberation had made quite a few updates already as the rural districts which had closed voting at 6Pm by 8 PM were almost done counting and started publishing.  You can already note that 14 million votes have been counted, that the socialist red is growing fast in the South, and that the enlarged maps of Paris is still mostly grey because they voted until 8 PM.  You can also see that all overseas territories have reported since they all finished voting by noon French time.



1 hour after closing time

Liberation advanced quite fast: the 10 PM map had very little grey left as even Paris was sending its first returns, and one hour later the interior ministry numbers confirmed officially that the Socialist party and its closest allies had gained control of parliament.  But I will not put up those maps, preferring to offer Le Monde at midnight, 4 hours after voting ended.  It is more stylish than the the Liberation one, better interactivity also (Liberation is more complete but quite slow).  Le Monde map has the advantage of giving the details for the urban areas and carry simultaneously the parliamentary composition on the right, automated as time rolls.

Le Monde, 4 hours later
From this last map it is clear that the Socialist have an amazing grip on the South and South West of France.  The grip is not as tight in the West, but still impressive, and the UMP and allies survive well only in the East and Provence though dented in Marseilles.  Paris and close suburbs are to the left whereas further away suburbs are for the right.  The only major city that remains blue is Nice, the other ones went left, Bordeaux and Nantes 100%! Note: if you visit that page you can click on the individual parties and see, according to their score, their percentile in EVERY district! This give you a real feel for the relative strength of each party as many results are in fact alliances of sorts.

But my favorite map was the one from Le Point.  Contrary to Le Monde and Liberation it is a weekly and as such are in no hurry to do their map for the second round.  This one will be published tomorrow during the day.  But I am leaving you with the first round vote map of last Sunday because on a cartographic point of view it is exquisite (and interactive too!).  If you like maps be sure to visit Le Point in a couple of days and track down their electoral map which should appear here. Right now they are only publishing results through a table where you must click your "département".


Then and now: those Orwellian moments....

Readers will surely remember the picture from the La Planta jail in Caracas, smoke billowing out, sent by a reader (dodging the occasional "lost" bullet)..
La Planta aflame in tear gas, from a reader's window
Well, the same reader sent me a current picture where you can appreciate that the walls have been covered with giant posters of the beloved leaders. Mote the exquisite details on how the support columns have also been painted in red.

Renovating La Planta
In such ways is history rewritten. What was a jail riot where inmates had enough weaponry to hold off the army, where the incompetence of the jail minister was exposed crudely (she had not been able to even manage to put a director in a couple of months or feed them for that matter), where the "solution" was to allow inmates to go, un-cuffed, to the jail of their liking (with drugs and cash), where surprisingly no weaponry of significance was recovered is now set as a bright example on the prowess of El Supremo who recognized he negotiated personally with the inmates he could not control.  Then again, it was a meeting of the minds, a negotiation of pairs, of course.

Orwell would have had it this easy.

The History of the Decline and Fall of Chavismo


People interested in history will probably remember the classic History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Historian Gibbon analysed at great length the probable reasons for the end of Rome. There have been other contending hypotheses about how that powerful political entity came to its end and even now the discussion keeps stirring historians worldwide. When we take a look at Venezuela, though, the reasons for the eventual fall of Chavismo become much clearer even now.

On April 2010 - according to government officials - an iguana caused a major power outage in Western Venezuela.


On 14 June it was a common opossum that - again according to government officials - caused a prolonged blackout in Ciudad Guayana, one of our main cities.




As Miguel writes in his latest post, it is incredible that such important electricity hubs as the one of Ciudad Guayana could receive such a poor maintenance that this happens - if the story is true, of course.

The pattern is there for all to see: the total collapse of Venezuela's electricity network - and hence of the Bolivarian regime - will undoubtedly lie in the teeth of an agouti


or perhaps of a tapir?


The Barclays report for what is in store for Venezuela

I received in my mail box the "ENERGING MARKETS RESEARCH" from Barclays and even though the typo in the title is already unsettling, it is worth reading. Highlights after the jump.

The first thing to note is that there is really nothing new. Then again the report is signed by two Venezuelans so that would explain why it is complete enough (Alejandro Arreaza and Alejandro Grisanti). What they try to do is to figure what will happen after October 7, even including the scenario where there is no election on October 7 due to X.

Economic perspectives:
...if Chavez or a chavista wins the election, there are questions that will need to be addressed. We question whether 1) they realize the need for reforms is probably unavoidable; 2) how they would maintain an exchange rate control that produces
incentives to import rather than produce domestically; and 3) who could be the
minister that can implement this set of reform.

We believe that an HCR-led government would implement reforms gradually, focusing
on fixing relative prices and eliminating exchange and price control. We would expect
this path of reform to be fully supported by the international markets and with very
strong capital inflows. In this case, an adjustment will not be necessary and the new
government will have the opportunity to focus on maintaining the purchasing power of
the poorest sector of the population.
There, common sense. And there is also this, almost money quote quality:
In light of the unprecedented oil windfall, the presidential period 2007 to present could be characterized as a very poor in terms of economic performance. Venezuela’s economic policy is not sustainable and creates uncertainty about the future if the current regime wins the election in October 2012. It is not clear what changes it would introduce, apart from a very strong devaluation
Then there is a whole bunch of data with this conclusion (that sort of data has been managed in diverse guise by Miguel and I hate redundancy)
This figure reflects that social indicators are not improving at the rate that they should, given this unprecedented oil windfall.
More numbers about the fiscal situation of Venezuela, on how borrowing in the midle of the crisis aggravates everything. The conclusion:
This fiscal path is not sustainable, and a strong correction needs to be made. We believe that this adjustment would be very painful if Chavez party remains in power, given its lack of support from the Venezuelan private sector and international capital markets. The only possible adjustment for the administration is a significant devaluation of the currency, which would have a contractionary effect over the economy

In other words, over and over, we are in trouble.

As for the election, the observation is pretty close to what I wrote last Sunday on Capriles launch, as to the improved chances or a more peaceful transition:
Chavez will be subject to very strong limitations, and we believe that he will repeat what he has done in the past three months: a few appearances trying to show him as healthy despite his medical condition. The president’s principal assets for the campaign will be money, but he will be unable to “touch” the voters. By contrast, Capriles is promising to travel across the country four times before October 7. If we add this face-to-face campaign with the opposition message that is addressing the real problems of Venezuela, the probability of a peaceful and a democratic transition in Venezuela could be higher that what the market is pricing.

"the market is pricing"... you gotta love that consulting language...

Finally, the best part of their report is the above graph of what may happen in the next 4 months. They give us a branched tree of all possibilities though their explanations for each scenario are lacking. Still, it is a fun graph that I may decide to use soon as a betting poll of sorts :)  Note that the "non-institutional" exit is now a routine scenario of blogs as well as think tanks.  You do notice, of course, that coverage of this election by bloggers is going to be quite daunting for the need to cover so many possibilities.....

The Economist on Venezuela


Election time...here you are.

The Economist basically comments on what we all saw...Hugo's bad health, his threats, his claims he would take Venezuela "irreversibly" to socialism.

What The Economist didn't seem to know: education has been free all the way to university level for many decades already. In fact: Chávez's parents - like mine - were teachers in public schools and his big brother went to university for free - many decades ago.

Capriles prefers to export food, Chávez prefers to export weapons

I think the choice should be clear for someone who wants Venezuela to progress. Yesterday, the exotic idol of the world extreme left, Hugo Chávez, declared Venezuela will be exporting weapons very soon. 

Today, Henrique Capriles, the candidate of the alternative forces in Venezuela, said what the policy will be if most Venezuelans elect him: to transform the country into a net food exporter, not a weapons producer.

Right now Venezuela is more dependent than ever on food imports. The Bolivarian regime says it's "because now we eat more". How come we can't produce more after 13 years of "development" and so many extra billions coming in through record oil prices?

I think every single person abroad who still supports the military caudillo should feel ashamed by now. I am afraid that is not going to happen yet...it's about their pride and their ideological blindness.



Macabre waiting or building bridges?

In the last months I have been observing how other bloggers take for granted Chávez's death or full incapacitation.

I am very worried. If that is what we need to win, we are in real trouble.

I know any opposition would have an extremely hard time in a country where the state (and thus the government) is getting a record amount of money thanks to high oil prices. That's the case in Russia, that's the case in Equatorial Guinea, that's the case in Kazakhstan and that is the case in Venezuela.

Still, we should be doing better in Venezuela. Why? Because Chávez's regime is squandering money so badly. How? We need to provide content. There is a big issue here: Capriles has to work hard on his oratory skills. There is no way around if he wants to reach more people. He needs to read books in Spanish, really. He needs to work on how to link ideas in a speech.

There are two major problems the opposition has to deal with:

1) There is not "a Venezuela". There are several Venezuelan regions, very clearly divided.

Most key political actors within the Venezuelan opposition are based in and come from Caracas, Maracaibo and Valencia. They haven't presented a clear development plan for each of the other regions. It's not that Chavismo has any plan in those regions apart from more control though the so-called "councils". It doesn't matter Chavismo is clueless: it has the petrodollars, you can only fight against that with well-developed plans, plans customized to your clients - the regions.

2) Venezuelans are basically deluded. They need to be informed about the real state of the nation if we want to defuse the socio-economic bombs that have been planted in the last few decades.

Venezuela is a pressure cooker. The vast majority of the population - the poor, the middle class and the tiny upper classes - hasn't got a clue about how fragile the economy is...Venezuela is structurally speaking in worse shape than other countries. Only oil prices keep us afloat - we still have much higher oil prices than in any previous year -.

The economy in Venezuela won't collapse this year. But the situation will become more critical in the next few years. Do we spend time now telling people about how unsustainable the economy is or we wait a little bit longer...yet again?



Antisemitism and elections in Venezuela

Great article from Tablet in which yours truly is among those asked to try to make sense on why Chavez is antisemitic, among many other to the point observations.  One of the best recent article on Venezuela.  Renews one's faith in the intelligence and understanding of some for the current situation, the more so when you compare it the following exchange in El Pais which could have well been written in 1998.  Oh well....  Good thing the writers of El Pais know better than some of the stuff written in their forums.

Oil addiction running amok

The current president of PDVSA, Venezuela's state petroleum company, asked the Golf States to reduce oil production: oil prices are "too low". And I thought: how was it about the "fair price"?

I checked it out.

Hugo Chávez declared in 2006 the fair price for oil shouldn't be under 60 dollars a barrel. In 2007 he said the fair price should be between 90 and 100 dollars. The next year the military president thought the price to pay should be around 100 dollars. In 2009, he declared "the fair price for oil is 60 dollars a barrel". The next year, that very just of all prices had to be at not less than 80 dollars. In 2011 the level was 100 dollars.

Here I plotted OPEC's average price (in red) against Hugo I's "Fair Price" (in blue). Mind: I didn't select Hugo's "average" fair price, but the first "precio justo" of his for any given year that I could find on a very quick search. The average price for Venezuela's petroleum this year is around $114 but the current price is actually around the "fair price".

What does this show us, ladies and gentlemen?

It's all the opposite to sustainable development. I wouldn't even call it unsustainable development. The current government is running a rat race.




Venezuela and war

Venezuela is the second most warring country in South America, after Colombia, which is in a civil war. That's the conclusion of the people behind the Global Peace Index.



This doesn't surprise us at all, of course. Only nine countries spent more money importing weapons last year. Some of Chávez's sycophants abroad say Venezuela's Defence budget gets a lower chunk than in other places but they seem to forget (or they pretend to ignore) that a lot of what the current military regime spends on weapons comes from Fonden, the Fondo para el Desarrollo Endógeno.

19 thousand people were murdered in Venezuela last year. The murder rate has more than tripled since the caudillo from Venezuela's Llanos came to power 13 years ago.

An English-speaking BBC reporter screwing it up yet again on Venezuela


BBC can produce some nice journalism in many topics. Unfortunately, Venezuela hasn't been very lucky with the kind of English-speaking BBC reporters it is getting. There is BBC Mundo - with Latin American reports with background on the area - and there is BBC English - represented by journalists who simply haven't got much insight about what is really happening in our country. 

Today BBC News wrote that the candidate for the alternative forces, Henrique Capriles, is "against Chávez's left-wing policies". Curiously, that reporter didn't ask herself how come parties such as Causa R, the majority of people under Podemos and PPT and even Bandera Roja - of all parties - can stand behind Capriles. I wonder how good Sarah Grainger's Spanish is. Perhaps as good as Will Grant's? 

Capriles has repeatedly said he supports a system similar to the one in place in Brazil now and he admires Lula. Of course, Lula has said he supports Chávez...Realpolitik and Reaispolitik above all: he would be foolish not to, Brazil's businessmen are making a good killing out of Venezuela's economic disarray and ever-growing dependency on oil. 

So...what are "left-policies"? In reality Capriles would be in many ways left of Labour...and yet BBC says he is against left-winged policies...it does not specify which ones.

Capriles is not against "socialism". He is not "for capitalism". He has repeated time after time he goes beyond that. He represents democratic, pluralistic forces, forces that go from very left to very right. He himself would be left of most in Europe and definitely in Britain. And it is not as if Chávez were such a socialist, as El País reports.

BBC has had a terrible record when it comes to Venezuela. German and Dutch news agencies have done a much better job in portraying what is happening in my country. This is definitely not about BBC being "too lefty". The English-speaking part of BBC is sending journalists who do a very superficial work on Venezuela.

Latin American heads of state and power

It is a pity we never hear the discussion about parliamentarian versus presidential democracies when "experts" talk about re-elections in Latin America. Parliamentarian democracies are completely different from presidential democracies and these differences are essential if people want to understand why there have been term limits for presidential systems, specially for very strong presidential forms. The US allowed indefinite re-election until Roosevelt, but even then a US president had more limited powers than a president in other countries.

It is incredible so many sycophants of "left nationalist" presidents say that the possibility of indefinite re-elections in Germany, Spain or Britain are a reason to allow that in Venezuela, with a completely different - strongly presidential - system.

Here you have the chart of Latin American heads of state and, rounded down, their time in power.


Today Venezuela's military caudillo will register as a candidate for re-election once more. He has been in power since early 1999, more than any  other head of state in Latin America.



Capriles smashing launch: le ladró en la cueva


The official propaganda on state media (and even its eunuchs like Venevision) will try to minimize what happened today in Caracas.  Don't believe a word: it was a smashing success!  Even AFP says so, using the term "hundreds of thousands".

This blogger, even living in Yaracuy, has gone to all the main opposition rallies and marches in Caracas.  Pics are scattered all through the blog since 2003.  I did miss the main one, the one of April 11 2002. Thus I cannot compare it with today.  Some say that April 11 was the biggest one ever.  Maybe, but I can assure you that this one was the biggest, brightest, of the ones I ever went.
In the far distance Libertador avenue, both decks full

I did try the live tweet thing, but wireless signal was generally bad.  I suppose that too many in the crowds were tweeting, calling, trying to find lost parties (I lost my group early and did most of it on my own until returning to our agreed meeting point, first time ever I lost my group).  There were plenty of fun pictures to do, for a change, and you can check out my recent tweets for them @danielduquenal, as I do not like redundancy though the two pictures of this post were tweeted earlier (the one above came from a reader, look at how far the flow of people go!).

At any rate, it was a spectacular event.  Never had I so much trouble walking, never was such enthusiasm shown, and for at long last I sensed that yes, we may be able to finally get rid of Chavez, without necessarily spilling bloodshed.  After all, if 4 moths before the vote Capriles is able to gather with him that many people.....

If the march was rich in sights, it was also rich in symbolism.  For once the regime did not try to sabotage it.  Also Capriles went to make his speech in Plaza Caracas, one of the favorite pulpits of Chavez, a place which even 6 months ago no one in the opposition would have dared to organize a rally.  As we say in Venezuela, "Capriles le ladró en la cueva", Capriles went to bark inside his cave.  Capriles also went inside the CNE for his formal registration freshened up, Venezuelan flag shirt (he did walk 10K under a blazing sun and by chance I saw him run by me, barely a foot away!  He was already red and sweaty and still 3/4 of the way to go...).  He was received by all the witches of the CNE that simply could not help it, sensing that maybe, just maybe for once they should looks a tad less chavista.

All in all an excellent day for our cause and a terrible one for chavismo which is not even trying to reply tomorrow.  The lone stuff we know is that Chavez will come in a closed caravan from Miraflores Palace and that the CNE witches will go outside to receive him, as far from cameras as possible....  The comparison will be terrible, no matter how the state TV tries to hide that Chavez is sick and that his own people are getting sick of him....  Capriles has conquered the street and Chavez is left with cadenas where he sits down all the time and money for vote buying.  By October it might not be enough.


Capriles First real life test

Tomorrow the opposition unity candidate makes his first mass meeting. The occasion is his official signing up as a presidential candidate. Chavez will try to do one best on Monday but that is another story.

The fact of the matter is that the Unidad has planned a massive march/rally starting from different points of the city.  We will see how successful has been Capriles campaign at motivating people.  I will attend part of the event only because of family matters, but that part I will tweet it live with pictures as needed.  See you tomorrow at @danielduquenal

Venezuela im Juni

Morgen wird Henrique Capriles, der Kandidat der alternativen Kräfte in Venezuela, sich beim Wahlrat einschreiben. Wir erwarten mit absoluter Sicherheit Schikanen seitens der jetzigen Regierung.
Wird der Caudillo in seiner dreifarbigen Jacke, in einem Anzug oder in seinem Militäruniform erscheinen?

Übermorgen wird der Caudillo - von manchen DDR-Menschen als "Linksnationalist" angesehen - dasselbe tun. Die Regierung wird dann alle staatlichen Mittel benutzen, um Leute nach Caracas zu bringen, damit sie ihre angebliche oder echte Unterstützung zeigen. Beamten werden um ihren Job bangen müssen, wenn sie nicht dabei sind.

Die Regierung hat zwei sozialdemokratische Parteien "enteignet": ihre Gebäude und alles dabei sowie die Namen werden nun Chávez-Anhängern zugesprochen. Die meisten Menschen dieser Parteien hatten vor etwa zwei Jahren ihre Trennung vom Chavismus bekanntgemacht. Der Caudillo konnte das nicht akzeptieren. Also sagte er den Richtern, dass sie eine für den Chavismus geeignete Entscheidung treffen mussten. Und genau das haben die Richter getan.



Two things I won't miss

I just came back from my Honey Moon – that, and my Wedding can count as the best moments of my life but of that, we’ll talk later. We ask my mother in law about a cousin we couldn’t see at the wedding. She tell us she was kidnapped with her husband two days before our wedding, to be released the same night. She was too upset to get out, thus she couldn’t made it. The phone rings, and the person at the other side tell us about another cousin who was robbed inside his own house the night before. The robbers entered the house pretending they were delivering a gift. Next, they tie up everyone and took everything they could: TV’s, computers and the family’ car. 



A couple of days later after hearing such stories, I met my girlfriends for lunch. They haven’t see me since the wedding and the table is filled with funny anecdotes about one of the girls who got drunk, how cute my dress was and every single detail I could tell them about my Honeymoon. When we laugh remembering the part when we were singing Shakira' old hits, one girl – lets call her Adela – interrupts – “Well, I was gone by then” – “That’s right!” – Another friend adds – “I wonder why you left the party so early…” – “Well, you know my mom” – Adela explains – “Just a day before, a man was shoot to death right under my mother’ eyes. So she’s more paranoid than ever” – We all nodded in sign of approval. I tell them that as selfish as it might sound, I don’t want to keep talking about it, I want to keep the happy atmosphere we had before.

Cristina, another friend, agrees-  “There are two conversation topics I can’t stand: insecurity and emigration” – She says. I clear my throat “Well Cristina… I’m sorry” – “Yeah, yeah… I know” – She answers, resigned. My husband got into grad school and I’m going abroad with him. For at least two years we won’t be in Venezuela. It is not a permanent thing, but is relevant enough. Many things can change in two years, things here change so fast, for better and for worse. And after two years living somewhere else, somewhere entirely different, I know that we will return as two completely different individuals than what we are now. You can say that people never change, even less adults. But I have already said good bye to enough friends to know that once they put their feet and their routines in a foreign land, even if they don’t want to, they change. Same will happen to us now.

After lunch, we return to my old office – Side note: once my husband was admitted, I quit my job: every day now is filled with calls and paperwork related to our departure, we have to focus on that now. The accountant asks one of us to go with her to the supermarket. By some miracle, today there is milk available. She wants to buy some for her but also some for her daughter in law. Every person is only allowed to buy one or two packages of milk. Cristina goes with her. I save all the wedding photos my friends brought me in my hard-drive and say good bye.

Lately, as understandable, I have had all kinds of opposite emotions at the same time. I’m happy and excited for the fabulous moments I have lived lately, and for those I’m about to live. At the same time, comes all the nostalgia for leaving my home, and parents. I lived with them for 27 years, it is not easy to leave them behind. And it is a little bit harder when this includes, also, to move to a place so far away, available only through a couple of planes. I’m trilled about this moving and proud of my husband’ achievements. But this includes to start from scratch in a new land.

When I look at my country, I don’t know where to look. What to take and what to keep. People talk a lot about politics and economics and all those big and complicated things people like to talk to think about themselves as smart people. They talk about Venezuela’ situation, Venezuela’ crisis. They make rough analysis about Capriles’ chances to win or Chavez unknown’ disease. But as you have seen, in our daily life, the Venezuelan “crisis” can roughly be only about two major issues: insecurity and shortages.

Those are two things my country including everyone around me is suffering. Two things not even my wedding could overpass. Two things that worry me daily. Out of the million things I will miss – perhaps I’ll talk about it next – those are two things I surely won’t.  



The 2012 French Vote: the Venezuelan representative

After voting for president a few weeks ago, last Saturday for the first time ever I was allowed to vote for a Representative to the French National Assembly.  And it was quite a tale of woe, worthy of a Venezuelan "telenovela".

The French electoral law has changed and in the new redistricting 11 circuits were created so French citizens residing overseas and registered to vote at French embassies, like yours truly, would have for the first time direct representatives.  11 out of 577 may be small but is a good start, and a privilege accorded to very few citizens of any country.

The new circuits are huge (mine, the number 2, covers from Mexico to Patagonia) and campaigning is difficult.  Internet is thus at a premium, and not for campaigning purpose alone (with Skype big time), but also because French citizens duly registered with an e-mail have been allowed to vote through Internet.  Indeed, if you live in Yaracuy the need to go to Caracas is a chore: you may do it for president but may balk for other votes.  I think that one's Representative is more important than one's President, at least in normal countries, and thus I did not vote through Internet, cherishing too much the physical ceremony of sliding my ballot in an envelope, putting it into the glass voting case and listening to the "a voté", he has voted.

Inquiring before hand, I learned that the right which is favored in my circuit (Sarkozy won with 54% and in Caracas by 3 to 1 almost) was going divided, and there is the drama.  See, like many Parliaments, major political parties try to reward political operators with safe parliamentary seats.  And for the second district the UMP sent someone who lives in France but who "travels a lot through Latin America" I was told and thus he is supposed to know our problems.  It backfired badly and may cost the UMP what was supposedly going to be a safe seat.

The problem is that the right has been dominating the area and over the years it has placed a lot of people in the diverse organizations serving our community (we do vote for our regional delegates, who in turn elect our senators in France, less powerful figures than in the US but still significative).  Thus over the decades there has been a lot of people acquiring the necessary weight to run for office, from Rio Grande to Patagonia) and the sudden arrival of a certain Drouhaud was not taken lightly (we call them "parachuté" for the dropped on quality).  Thus came the candidacy of Mrs Lindemann, a notable figure of the French community in Brazil.  Her supporters have been threatened by the UMP, many of them, I was told, asked to return their party card, in addition to other insults.  But the insurgency prospered anyway.

I got an earful last Saturday since you can hang around the voting station and chit chat with all sorts of people as long as you please.  The divisions between the French community in Venezuela has gone as far as people not talking to each other anymore. Having good acquaintances in both sides you can imagine what I heard.  I, for one, went the dissident way because I think that Paris UMP leadership was dead wrong on that one.  Indeed, I do know personally on how tight the community is, on how elected locals, right or left, work together for the community problems.  Sending what is a total stranger, but, oh so sponsored by French business, was a major mistake pitting against each other the French folks that reside permanently now overseas against those who come only for a few years to make a buck and vote for their party rather than their kindred.

Unfortunately Drouhaud did win, barely, with 22% to 16% for Lindemann for whom I voted.  After all, there are chavista mind sets everywhere and plenty of folks will vote the official UMP (or official Socialist as there are plenty of impositions from that side too in France, all sharing in the bad habits).  What is worse is that as a consequence of the division, the leftists candidates made quite a serious inroad and their total combined is higher than the right total so far.  Still, considering that participation over all was around half of the presidential vote a month ago, the seat is not safe yet for the Socialists.

Coronado speaking on the left
I, for one, will not vote for Drouhaud.  Besides resenting the imposition, I did happen to be in Caracas when the Socialist candidate visited.  His name is Sergio Coronado, born in Chile just before Pinochet, raised as an exile in France, and now French citizen.  In a way he is no better than Drouhaud since he has been living in Colombia for about three years if I understand well.  But at least he lives there, even if provisionally.  Also, he is running on the Ecologist Movement ticket which is supported by the Socialist Party which elected Hollande president a month ago.

I was invited by my socialist friends to attend his electoral meeting, a small affair where not 30 showed up, myself being probably the lone provincial folk. My friends did know I voted for Sarkozy, but that was no obstacle in our community.  Coronado is OK, articulate, does not buy Chavez, and is in fact very aware of his dismal environmental record.  The only thing I can criticize him from that reunion is that he sneaked out to smoke which for a member of the ecologist movement of France should be a No-No.

Thus I will vote for Sergio Coronado in the second round ballot, because at least he will not be coming to Venezuela to peddle French goods to the chavista government.  I think he will be more concerned about our fate here than Drouhaud would, as I sense that this last one will be more concerned in what goods Chavez is willing to buy from France.  In other words, he will become a salesman for the French business that supported his run and he will have no trouble to kiss chavista ass as needed.  I may be wrong but I have not heard anything that would prove otherwise whereas Coronado did express his many criticism to the current regime in public.

It is always discomforting for me to note over and over, again and again, that the main stream Socialist have been more critical of Chavez overall than the French UMP  (Ramonet and others should not be included as they are in the left fringes that worship chavismo, Melanchon heading that trend these days).  It is always good to remember that Liberation was the first critical paper in France, as early as 2003 if memory serves me well.  Le Monde started later but never looked back whereas Le Figaro at this point still manages to publish bland pieces on Venezuela and Chavez.  Drouhaud reads Le Figaro whereas Coronado and myself read Libé and Le Monde.  My endorsement is thus clear.