Chavez real Potemkine villages, with fake green houses included

The latest scandal to shake chavismo and provoke yet another intemperate response that hurts it more than it he's is the expose of two remarkable activists. They showed that the huge green houses set along the ARC highway for propaganda purposes were in fact empty, some with overgrown grass that showed they have served no agricultural purposes for maybe a year. The video that infuriates the regime is below. It is in Spanish but the images speak for themselves.

As a personal note I can assure you the Potemkine green houses are fake. I pass at least 4 times a month in front and for quite a while the peasant in me wondered what the he'll was going on. Never any worker to be seen. A lot of dust. Overgrown access. Etc.

Meanwhile not only we import 60% of our food, at least, but the regimes prides itself on that "to cut down on inflation"

Crime along the Ocamo river

The Venezuelan minister of Interior and Justice, El Aissami, said the government had already contacted 7 out of 9 Yanomami communities in the Amazonas state and they said everything is fine on their side.

This is a pointless statement, to say the least. Those communities are located in an area, as I mentioned in my previous post, a little bit larger than the Netherlands...but with the densest jungle you can imagine. There are virtually no roads there. The two communities we haven't heard anything yet are the ones about which the Yanomami reported the attack.

It's as if someone had reported an attack on Maastricht and authorities located as far as Glasgow would say people have investigated so far in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Haarlem and Middelburg and things are fine there even if Maastricht is still pending.

Those communities are very close to the border. They have never been counted in the Venezuelan census and experts in the area - people I know - are very worried and are sure the attack happened. They just don't know what exactly happened, how many fatalities there were.

This is an area where Alexander von Humboldt had to stop his incredible voyage. It hasn't changed that much since 1800 for the Yanomami or for the Venezuelan authorities, but it has changed a lot for those looking for gold and other riches.


Well, I watched 5 minutes of Rubio (thumbs down) and the second half of Romney, inserting in between whatever sitcom was on WTV.

As expected, there is no way I would vote Republican (the last time I thought voting GOP was an option was 1980). However from Romney's speech I think that the reelection of Obama is far from a sure thing. Romney's talking points are much more in tune with US citizens preoccupations after what seems an endless crisis, just as Capriles here seems so much more in tune than Chavez (you should have seen Capriles last Tuesday with union workers of Guayana!).

Regardless, whoever wins in the US is almost irrelevant for Venezuela. And I dare say to the world. Times have changed and the US is not the superpower it used to be. Obama's fault may be to understand it more than he should but Romney will be in for a rude awakening if he wins. However there was one promise of Romney that should be of major concern for Venezuela: to make the US energy independent by 2020. Even if reaches half that goal, we are screwed as we would have wasted the last huge oil bonanza of our history.  The first thing Capriles will need to prove is that Venezuela will be a reliable ally and provider. Can he?

80 Yanomamö murdered by Brazilian miners?

Yesterday we got the news that, according to Horonami, an NGO for the defense of the Yanomamö, 80 of their people were murdered by garimpeiros, illegal Brazilian miners who entered Venezuelan territory - as they so very often do. The NGO asked for a governmental inquiry to take place as soon as possible. The attack, the NGO said, took place on 5 July in Momoi, Alto Orinoco, in the deep jungle.
This is an optimistic view of where the Yanomamö used to live.  Garimpeiros and
other foreigners have been encroaching in their territory

Apparently, three survivors managed to escape and walked all their way to the closest human settlement, which took several days. Still, I am puzzled by the amount of time since that happened and we get the news - it has been almost two months-. Below you can see a little map of the Alto Orinoco municipality. The settlement was in the Upper Ocamo. You can read more details about the whole event and the background from a report presented by a First Nation organisation here.

We haven't any more details. Is it true? I am asking people who have been frequently in Yanomamö territory but I am still waiting for the answer as they are very hard to reach.

I really hope the number of victims is lower. One thing has been clear for a long time already: First Nation organisations have been denouncing for years about the illegal miners who assault the natives, kidnap their women and pollute the rivers with mercury. The Venezuelan government does very little...specially because it doesn't want to bother the Brazilian government...the new master of the region. Brazil has now much more stringent control of its territory and illegal miners prefer to cross over to Venezuela.

Alto Orinoco Municipality, larger than Slovakia or the Netherlands

More information, in Spanish, here

This is post 3,500; and hopefully counting

Just to underline that, without forgetting to underline also that even if not all posts are from me, more than 3,000 are, over ten years. That is, almost a post a day, for soon ten years.

Now, in spite of allegations that I am paid for that, allegations regularly coming from chavistas, through comments in this blog to the staff of Jose Vicente Rangel himself, no money in the world could have compensated me. A blog like this is a labor of love, with a drive, a statement of ethics and principles in front of adversity and degradation.

Only one person holds such consistency, Miguel.  Quico occasionally self combusted and Alek sort of gave up, not to demerit them at all, not to question their drive or motivation, but as a mere statement of fact.  They may beat me in the end, in years and/or #posts but they need me to quit first.  The thing is that we were all 4 pioneers and we have written at the very least an historical footnote that I doubt exists elsewhere worthy of comparison  And none of us would have accomplished what we did if it were not for the existence of the other three, and those who we involved along the long road

As for those who are supposed to hold the true ideal, who work for humanity's communist or socialist XXI redemption, who have found in Chavez and Castro their reason to live, not a single one of them was able to take on us, even when lavishly paid.  All are gone, sometime to other sponsors, without having had the courage to admit that maybe they had make a mistake, at least with Chavez. They were the real mercenaries, we are the right stuff.

Winds of change?

You know that things are changing in Venezuela when a new site like appears.

They came up this month and among other things have the widely circulated pictures of the charred bodies of Amuay, carried like dead cattle; or detailed reports about how the bolibourgeois are trying to cleanse their image by supporting the Capriles campaign.  With names and all. But of course, they are anonymous, with an overlong explanation as to why so.  Interesting....

Calvin Coolidge

Cleaning up some drafts for posts that were never completed I run across this one in 2008 that deserves to be completed because today, from Cúpira to Amuay, ending in a desperate cadena last night where Chavez pretended to make a "borron y cuenta nueva" (passing the buck in gringo talk) we need to think again at the notion of the State.

President Calvin Coolidge speaking on the occasion of the 150th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, Philadelphia, Pa.:

Governments do not make ideals, but ideals make governments. This is both historically and logically true. Of course the government can help to sustain ideals and can create institutions through which they can be the better observed, but their source by their very nature is in the people.

The people have to bear their own responsibilities. There is no method by which that burden can be shifted to the government. It is not the enactment, but the observance of laws, that creates the character of a nation.

As such, when Chavez says that Venezuela overcame because of the strength of its institutions he is, without realizing it, recognizing that the only "institution" left in Venezuela is himself, that all turns around him and his survival.  Because if indeed Venezuela had institutions, and if its people were willing to observe the existing laws, maintenance would have been done at Amuay, cranes would not have been allowed to cross bridges, etc, etc...

If Venezuela had institutions Chavez would never had become president.

Our October choice is whether we want to keep careening in chaos as long as I think I can do as I please and get the occasional freebie from the regime, or we want once and for all take a grip of our destiny and start behaving as a people in charge of it and willing to do what it takes to reach that goal.

Nonplussed by US election

I have to admit that I am watching with little interest the US election this time around, even though it would be more momentous in its consequences than any in the last couple of decades.  The thing is that watching it from Venezuela we must conclude that the US really does not care about what happens here.  True, they should, they lost what should have been their main ally South of the Border.  But no one ever accused the US policy makers of actually caring about what happens south of the border as long as the help is cheap and docile.  there were some heartfelt attempts, by Democratic presidents mostly.  But where are the traces today as Brazil and China have no problems growing their influence in the area?  Let's look at the recent record with Venezuela, with pre-apologies on gross simplifications.

Dem-Clinton. Chavez caught him at the end of his rule and wisely he deferred the solution to whomever came next. Still, in retrospective, had he invited Chavez to the White House he could have seduced him the way Castro did.  Or at least moderated him somewhat since the only thing Chavez ever wanted, besides play ball, was to have his picture taken in the Oval Office. Otherwise how can you explain this hatred against a country of which Chavez personally had nothing to complain of?

Rep-Bush. His idiotic adventure in Iraq has changed our world.  Had he stuck to Afghanistan only maybe he would have accomplished more.  In retrospective, we cannot tell whether the US invasion of Saddam's Iraq sped up or slowed down the Arab spring. The fact of the matter is that the US needed its secure oil supply and the Bush administration was only to happy to accept any insult from Chavez as long as Venezuelan oil kept finding its way North.  Even in the pseudo 2002 coup, the US alleged involvement was so diffident that it is almost as if they had wished Chavez to remain, least oil supplies would be perturbed.

Dem-Obama. Besides his forced upon hand shake with Chavez Obama has studiously avoided further contact.  His policy was rather successful in treating Chavez as a non entity, the more so that Chavez errors finally started catching up with him. In fact, to his credit Obama's administration has encouraged a diminution of oil imports from Venezuela. We do not know whether it was due to Venezuela being a less reliable oil producer of natural antipathy, but regardless of the reason it was a wise move. Then again Obama blew it by declaring that Chavez is not a threat even though all the evidence is to the contrary, from Venezuelan having become a narco state to its support of FARC guerrilla and other assorted "insurgency" here and there. Never mind its alliance with Iran!

Rep-Romney? I put a question mark because if Obama is reelected we know that nothing will happen vis a vis Venezuela. A H. Clinton presidency could have been more dynamic on this respect. So, what has Romney said?  Nothing convincing, nothing that shows he is truly informed, nothing that indicates a plan, all for strict electoral purposes. That the republicans are not as informed as one would wish them to be can be reminded to us regularly when we read idiotic declarations like the ones of Jon Voight, comparable only to the idiotic ones of the likes of Sean Penn. Of course, one thing is the campaign, another who Romney would appoint at State.

So you will forgive me if I am skeptic about any future role of the US in Venezuela, for good or bad, and if I am sitting this one out.  Though watching recent Republican positions on abortion and gay rights I have to consider that an Obama reelection is probably the lesser evil as far as Venezuela is concerned. At least under Obama it would be easier for me to find a political refugee status in the US....  Not that I need it, mind you, I have a EU passport.  Just talking.....

Hat tip Juan Nagel

Actor Jon Voight says Obama controls US media just like Chávez does in Venezuela. Um, not quite. 

Random notes on Amuay

Corazon del infierno

The New York Times is having a field day.  Not only we have a second major article highlighting the deficient governmental response but also a striking photo gallery of Amuay's ruins.

The chavista National Assembly leadership does not think it is important to discuss the Amuay accident.  Indeed, any fault, ANY, can be blamed on Chavez historical decision to transform PDVSA in 2003 into his electoral cash cow.  Recognizing that mistake today is exactly as saying that the emperor is not only stark naked, but with a duster up his keester.  And it gets better; we should all show solidarity with Ramirez while he digs the ruble instead of calling for his immediate removal.  The chutzpah of Diosdado, really....
This morning Globovision was reporting live the good news that the fire seemed under control. Unfortunately as hunk Reimy Chavez was talking we saw suddenly black clouds billowing and flames. It ain't quite over.  Even though the hated empire sent special foam and stuff.

Of course, there are useful idiots like James Petras only too willing to come to the rescue of Chavez, no matter what the offense is.  Now this character, without any evidence, says that it was all a conspiracy from the empire.  Ah!  an excuse to suspend elections that Chavez looks more and more like losing!

Still, some sort of supporters of Chavez can be quite critical after Amuay's disaster....

Dictatorship on fire at Amuay

Many people criticize some of us when we use the term dictatorship to characterize the Chavez regime (I personally started using it in all propriety since the enabling law of 2010).  Of course, people are still in the mind frame of XX century dictatorships.  Times have changed.  With clever abuse of the media and understanding on how to make things "legal" dictatorships have assumed a new facet.  Now their objective is not controlling the daily life of people and killing scores of opponents.  Now they satisfy themselves by making sure a small "elite" stays in office through manipulated but still sort of real elections.  These "elites" are then allowed to plunder the state coffers, which was the point all along.  Let's say that absolute power has been replaced by absolute plunder.

The Amuay refinery is still burning this morning as I type this note.  But that is not the news.  What are the news today is really Chavez visit yesterday.  In that visit he bragged that he wanted to get closer to the fire, where even experts did not dare to go. We never got those images.  He declared that the explosion was not due to a leak or lack of maintenance. Even though the going on fire did not allow for any examination of the wreckage yet. He said that it was impossible that folks smelled gas on Friday even though the reports to that effect are too many to count and found their way even in the New York Times today. He warned the media on "speculation" and took plenty of time to try to humiliate publicly a Colombian journalist that dared to contradict his words.  He said that the show must go on, a tremendously telling subconscious betrayal. Etc...

In short, he behaved like a banana republic dictator, of the XIX century no less.

PDVSA blast and post Chavez leadership

There is a new site"" that has come up for the election and is trying to pull together all internet resources to inform about the truth inside Venezuela at the eve of the vote.  Believe it or not, I have been asked to be one of the correspondents because they needed some folks from the social democratic side to come and balance more right wing opinions.  A web MUD if you like.  I said yes for a dozen posts until October 7 and I will reproduce them in my blog AFTER they come up in  Please, encourage their initiative by passing around the link to your acquaintances, even those moderately interested in Venezuela.

The first post was on the leaders to come after Chavez.

The second one on PDVSA blast yesterday, with a title which idea  I shamefully picked up from the web "Gotterdamerung".  It was from someone that wished to remain nameless so if by any chance you read it, write to me so I can thank you personally for such a great idea.  The post is reproduced after the jump.

August 26, 2012 –

It is difficult to put a just perspective on what happened yesterday in the huge refinery complex of Amuay-Cardon.  The Venezuelan state oil company and monopoly, PDVSA, had two gas reservoirs blowing up and killing scores of people (tonight’s count is 39 death and 86 injuries). The state has tried to control the flow of information, reportedly with threats to the media. It is election times and that major disaster is a direct hit to Hugo Chavez.

But in an age of Twitter and smart phones, the information cannot be silenced the way it can still be done in worker’s paradises like Cuba or North Korea.  Pictures and videos were quickly available, comments and injury reports, and even expressions using the word Gotterdammerung which found its way to the title above.
Tonight the Vice president of Venezuela Elias Jaua did a shameful update on TV trying to transform the tragedy into a campaign asset, implying to us that were it not for el Comandante personal involvement it would be all for the worse. Orwell should be so creative.

The country knows better.

After the oil strike of 2002-2003, what turned into a regime the government of Hugo Chavez was the firing without any regards and compensation of 20,000+ workers of PDVSA. Then excuses from “bloated bureaucracy” to “traitors” were readily used. The rage of the regime against this proficient team,  the source of Venezuela’s income, made us witness dramatic scenes such as spouses and children being expelled at night from workers camps at Los Semerucos. Needless to say that the pension savings and legal payment benefits of these workers became arguably the first illegal expropriation of the regime.

Since then, not only the company payroll has ballooned to at least four  times the 2002 payroll, but PDVSA became one of the most opaque, unsafe oil companies to work for. Gente de Petroleo, an NGO formed in 2003 to defend the rights of the fired workers, in a communiqué today report that since 2003 there have been at least 79 accidents in Amuay, with 19 workers killed that we know of.

But that is not all: since 2003 PDVSA has been associated with a number of major national disasters in a way that did not happen before 2003. In pollution accidents we go from the chronic contamination of Lake Maracaibo to the recent one in Monagas that left the major city of Maturin without running water for more than a month. Not to mention the stacks of oil derived coke near Piritu that PDVSA cannot be bothered to dispose of and make the area’s air un-breathable.

There are also many accidents such as gasoline trucks on the roads without the adequate security measures that have killed bystanders in fiery explosions. Even without fire PDVSA causes major perturbation in the country, such as the Cupira Bridge that links the Eastern part of the country to the rest and that was destroyed last week because a PDVSA crane twice the weight allowance of the bridge tried to cross it anyway.  Weeks of costly chaos will follow.

Since Chavez put in charge at PDVSA his henchman Rafael Ramirez  it has become a true state within the state, an entity that cannot be questioned and even less audited. Any criticism is considered state treason by chavismo. And indeed it has to be treated as such by the regime because all of PDVSA faults, and its reckless wreckage, have to be laid at the feet of Chavez, barely a month before his hoped for reelection.

Dos preguntas sencillas a Hugo Chávez

Después de la contaminación del Lago de Maracaibo, después de la contaminación en Monagas que dejo sin agua a Maturín por un mes, después de la gandola que se incendio en la Panamericana matando a los pasajeros de una buseta, después de la destrucción del puente de Cúpira por una grúa de PDVSA, después de la explosión de Amuay este sábado en la madrugada, después de no sé cuantos más "incidentes" de los cuales no me acuerdo ahora...

¿Por qué coño no está destituido y enjuiciado Rafael Ramirez?

¿Será que él te tiene chantajeado porque él sí sabe toda la plata que le hiciste robar al país?

Venezuela and oil disasters

The huge explosion that cost the life of at least 39 people in and around Venezuela's largest oil refinery, Amuay, is not an isolate accident. Since Chávez sacked in 2003 over 2000 PDVSA employees maintenance and security levels dropped dramatically. It doesn't matter PDVSA now has over 135% more workers than before.

March 2011 saw already an explosion in Amuay....there weren't dead back then but there were fatal casualties in that refinery in that year.

Alejandro Tarre has a good overview of the issues with regards to accidents and lack of maintenance in PDVSA since Chávez is in power.

As he says, Primero Justicia (Henrique Capriles' party) has kept track of 77 deaths related to PDVSA accidents since 2003. PDVSA's very 2011 annual report conceded it carried out only 2 out of 9 required maintenance procedures for that year.

Venezuela's refineries are a complete mess. Venezuela has to import more and more petrol than ever in spite of all the crude it has.

L'Etat...c'est Chávez

If someone abroad wants to understand the unwillingness of Chávez and his honchos to differentiate between State and themselves, between national resources and Chávez's interests, he just has to analyse state news in Venezuela.

The National Electoral Council (CNE) is obliged by law to fine the government if this tries to use state resources for propaganda purpuses...but it doesn't except for one or two isolated cases because its directive is made up of Chávez' staunchest supporters plus one token opposition member whose comments are basically ignored.

Look at the site of the national Venezolana de Televisión:

You have Chávez's election slogan (Chávez: Corazón de Mi Patria), a link to more propaganda, a link to Chávez's site and to Chávez's twitter account.

Venezuela's Magic Fauna and Energy Supply

Yesterday the state-managed energy company Corpoelec explained why an important area of Greater Caracas had a blackout:

It was a black vulture's fault. 

Zamuro, a type of black vulture
For those of you who may not know: in 2010 the government accused an iguana of being responsible for another major blackout in Western Venezuela. This June national authorities said a common possum caused a huge power failure in Ciudad Guayana, in Venezuela's Southeast.

Meanwhile, there was yet another fatal accident at a PDVSA refinery: a propane tank exploded in Amuay (Northern Venezuela) and authorities reported at least seven dead.

Fatal accidents within facilities of the state oil company have sky-rocketed since Chávez sacked 20000 employees because they were striking replaced them with many more loyal to him. The PDVSA staff has gone up by 133% in five years, but as you see this has made things more dangerous.

Remember it was here you read it for the first time: Chavismo's ultimate fall will be triggered by a tapir or an agouti.

Venezuela's electoral numbers 2012: 3- time to call it for Capriles?

Yes, I think I am ready to call it for Capriles. Remember, that his winning does not assure that he will take office as the thugs in Miraflores palace may have other plans. Also, there is still a month and a half of campaign left and all is possible, even the unthinkable that would plunge the country in chaos. But based on my trend studies, based on the obvious organization and enthusiasm in Capriles campaign, based on the obvious mess in the Chavez camp, I think that right now, today, if elections were held, Capriles would win by at least 100.000, with a potential to grow 300,000 by the end of the month.

Before you read the tables below, a few things to keep in mind.

Polls: only one, that I know of, is calling already for a narrow Capriles lead.  But all serious pollsters are having a positive trend for Capriles.  His camp has even hinted that they are expecting a 500.000 victory margin. As such my trend study is walking hand in hand with these polling numbers so neither one is far of the mark :)

Votes: due to chavismo powerful blackmailing machine, it is my feeling that many people today will say that they are not voting for Capriles.  But more than at any time in recent elections there is the strong possibility that hundred of thousand may change their vote at the voting booth.....  thus I am expecting, and I come on record now with that, at least 200,000 votes more for Capriles than whatever polls say October 1.

Data: as always, my data comes straight from CNE pages and I pretend it as true.  That means I am not dwelling on fraud reported in remote centers, etc...  The point is that even with the CNE data, I see a Capriles win in October. If indeed the opposition manages to cover effectively all centers this time around, then the stronger a Capriles victory will be.  Note: "total" numbers in the tables may not match exactly some of the totals numbers reported by the CNE because I have been rounding up a lot.  That is, 123,456 becomes 123 or even 120 K votes.

Method: I confess that I have been a little bit more sloppy than in previous estimates.  But my private life has been complicated since April and I simply do not have the time or energy to look into as much provincial information and trends as I used to do.  Still, my starting point from past elections is good and I have tried to compensate my accidental sloppiness through very conservative estimates.

Starting points: I used the Rosales/Chavez of 2006.  The most relevant election since then was the parliamentary election of 2010 because Chavez invested himself so much in it, making it an election about him, at least in part.  In that election I considered the results for the "parlatino". In my opinion, the vote for an unknown Latin American parliament is freer of local factors, more likely to be a knee-jerk vote.  There was, besides the opposition list, a PPT and an OPINA lists who did little but enough in some states to influence next October outcome, depending on how these voters shift.  Being conservative I assumed that half of OPINA and PPT would go Capriles.  The rest?  Who knows... I do not subscribe to the opposition thesis that PPT votes will all go Capriles.  The last starting block was the opposition primary results which I was sent to and processed last February in several posts.

Background: you may want to consult three previous posts to help you understand better some of the tables below, the post on why I gave Capriles a starting point of 5 million + vote from the primary result, the trend away from Chavez in popular classes as per my long term watch of Caucagïta, and the three key states of Bolivar, Anzoategui and Lara which I put in purple in one of the tables.

And now the tables. I discovered that I can copy paste excel tables in blogger but some format is lost. It does have the advantage of simplicity for me and the same background.

In the first table we look at how the pro Chavez vote went down between 2006 and 2010.  I have noted the CNE registered voters in the first column but these numbers may change.  There are there for reference in the relative strength of each state.

In pink we can see the states where chavismo dropped more than 20%, and thus the states where the opposition has the most to win, in particular by making sure that its representatives are watching out every voting station.  and in purple what I consider the three major battle ground states.  I am not including there Miranda and Zulia because they are very polarized states from the start and neither side can hope to make much inroads in those at this point. Besides both states have 99% odds to go Capriles.

In the last column I assume that Chavez will make some recovery of the lost ground, as much as 30% of the lost vote in states where his voters abandoned him by more than 20% and only a 15% recover of lost votes in the other states, since I assume that the lower drop meant a more seated polarization, less pickings for each side.

Registered Voters 2012  Chavez 2006 parlatino psuv PSUV-CHAVEZ drop in 2010 recovery 2012?
Apure 292 126 98 -22% 106
Portuguesa 544 274 205 -25% 226
Guarico 471 217 160 -26% 177
Barinas 497 212 167 -21% 181
Cojedes 211 100 78 -22% 85
Trujillo 472 210 171 -19% 177
Merida 550 202 174 -14% 178
Tachira 755 258 207 -20% 215
Anzoategui 950 374 266 -29% 298
Nueva Esparta 305 113 75 -34% 86
Monagas 562 254 186 -27% 206
Sucre 602 269 163 -39% 195
Bolivar 894 372 241 -35% 280
Delta Amacuro 108 53 50 -6% 50
Amazonas 75 40 24 -40% 29
Aragua 1.112 538 345 -36% 403
Carabobo 1.416 584 385 -34% 445
Libertador 1.556 658 463 -30% 522
Miranda 1.858 693 650 -6% 656
Vargas 254 113 81 -28% 91
Zulia 2.229 724 655 -10% 665
Yaracuy 388 163 127 -22% 138
Falcon 597 237 180 -24% 197
Lara 1.142 516 213 -59% 304
Total 17840 7300 5364 5910
Registered Chavez 2006 PSUV 2010 Chavez 2012?

In the next table we look at opposition gains since 2006 when Rosales was candidate.  This is the most complex of the lot, sorry.

First column, registered voters.
Second column, from my post in February as to my projections for Capriles based on the primary result. This is what I consider the lowest he will get in October.
Next column is Rosales in 2006, for the record.
Then we have the parlatino vote in 2010, which leads in the shift from 2006 to 2010 next column in percentage. Some cases in pink show that the opposition in some instances did lose a few votes, which is the case in Miranda that I am at a loss to explain, except that there OPINA did a good score.
Which leads us to the next column where I added the PPT and OPINA votes, particularly important in Lara, Miranda and Amazonas.
The last column adds up the 2010 opposition vote plus HALF of the OPINA+PPT vote. You will note that it is slightly below my Capriles prediction in base of his primaries.  Let's call this column the minimum that Capriles will get in October, no matter what, still a hefty million more than Rosales in 2006.

Voters 2012  Primary projection for HCR Rosales 2006 Opposition 2010 OPPO SHIFT 2006-2010 2010 opina+ppt OPPO LOWEST 2010?
Apure 292 58 54 52 -4% 6 55
Portuguesa 544 112 81 97 20% 12 103
Guarico 471 124 84 80 -5% 32 96
Barinas 497 133 95 121 27% 9 126
Cojedes 211 47 36 37 3% 5 40
Trujillo 472 109 92 94 2% 8 98
Merida 550 165 173 173 0% 10 178
Tachira 755 246 245 282 15% 13 289
Anzoategui 950 284 235 313 33% 17 322
Nueva Esparta 305 93 79 102 29% 8 106
Monagas 562 124 103 119 16% 12 125
Sucre 602 181 95 140 47% 12 146
Bolivar 894 270 169 229 36% 22 240
Delta Amacuro 108 16 15 15 0% 2 16
Amazonas 75 27 11 7 -36% 24 19
Aragua 1.112 333 209 318 52% 25 331
Carabobo 1.416 468 360 451 25% 36 469
Libertador 1.556 479 387 460 19% 50 485
Miranda 1.858 700 525 480 -9% 44 502
Vargas 254 58 49 62 27% 6 65
Zulia 2.229 689 683 820 20% 13 827
Yaracuy 388 96 87 82 -6% 21 93
Falcon 597 160 142 158 11% 12 164
Lara 1.142 358 258 289 12% 208 393
TOTAL 17.840 5.328 4.267 4.981        5.285

In this next table we have a first look at Chavez versus Capriles next October.  This is my most conservative scenario, the worst that Capriles can do if his campaign were to start floundering through September.

Here I simply compare the votes between Chavez and Rosales in 2006 and what I expect these results to be in 2012 with Capriles. In other words, I see that Chavez has lost 1.3 million while the opposition gained 1 million (implying more abstention than in 2006, mostly due to chavista voters staying home).  In this worst case scenario, Capriles loses by 600.  But in the next table, I try to take into account other factors which reverse that result.  But before we go there observe that this 1 million gain for the opposition offers very significant state gains compared to 2006, highlighted in pale blue.  Miranda does not figure in the gains because Rosales did poorly there in 2006. But all logic, observations, etc., give Miranda to Capriles in October

Registered Voters 2012  Chavez 2006 Chavez 2012? Rosales 2006 Capriles 2010?
Apure 292 126 106 54 55
Portuguesa 544 274 226 81 103
Guarico 471 217 177 84 96
Barinas 497 212 181 95 126
Cojedes 211 100 85 36 40
Trujillo 472 210 177 92 98
Merida 550 202 178 173 178
Tachira 755 258 215 245 289
Anzoategui 950 374 298 235 322
Nueva Esparta 305 113 86 79 106
Monagas 562 254 206 103 125
Sucre 602 269 195 95 146
Bolivar 894 372 280 169 240
Delta Amacuro 108 53 50 15 16
Amazonas 75 40 29 11 19
Aragua 1.112 538 403 209 331
Carabobo 1.416 584 445 360 469
Libertador 1.556 658 522 387 485
Miranda 1.858 693 656 525 502
Vargas 254 113 91 49 65
Zulia 2.229 724 665 683 827
Yaracuy 388 163 138 87 93
Falcon 597 237 197 142 164
Lara 1.142 516 304 258 393
Total 17840 7300 5910 4267 5285

Thus we reach the last table which is where more of my gut feeling and recent observations come into play, such as voiding the scenario where Miranda would not be won by Capriles.  In that table I still remain conservative.

In this table Chavez 2012? and Capriles 2012? are values "corrected" from above. For example I actually improve Chavez in Guarico in spite of a bad result in 2010.  But in general I improve Capriles and lower Chavez based on the political mistakes that Chavez perpetrates and the expected local consequences (not trying to be more impressed than necessary by Capriles street showings, remember, conservative estimates!)

With these corrections now Capriles beats Chavez by 100,000.  I know, I know, it is all very subjective to my appreciations (and I can still change by October). But I persist and went further by adding two columns of states where I think there is a current down trend for Chavez and an uptrend for Capriles.  These should come to fruition by September and then Capriles in my speculation will be ahead by 300,000 votes. Note that and uptrend for one does not imply a downtrend in the other.  What I am trying to guess, among other, is how abstention evolves. By the way, in this "corrected" scenario I see almost 300,000 voters than in 2006.

Registered Voters 2012  Chavez 2006 Chavez 2012? downtrend Chavez Rosales 2006 Capriles 2012? uptrend Capriles
Apure 292 126 106 54 65
Portuguesa 544 274 226 10 81 103 10
Guarico 471 217 177 84 100 10
Barinas 497 212 175 95 130
Cojedes 211 100 80 36 40 5
Trujillo 472 210 175 92 105 10
Merida 550 202 170 5 173 190
Tachira 755 258 215 245 289
Anzoategui 950 374 280 10 235 330
Nueva Esparta 305 113 86 5 79 106
Monagas 562 254 190 10 103 150 10
Sucre 602 269 180 95 160 20
Bolivar 894 372 250 169 260 5
Delta Amacuro 108 53 40 15 20
Amazonas 75 40 30 11 25 5
Aragua 1.112 538 403 209 360
Carabobo 1.416 584 440 10 360 480
Libertador 1.556 658 500 10 387 525 10
Miranda 1.858 693 550 10 525 650 10
Vargas 254 113 91 5 49 65 5
Zulia 2.229 724 665 15 683 850
Yaracuy 388 163 115 5 87 100
Falcon 597 237 170 5 142 175 5
Lara 1.142 516 280 258 420
Total 17840 7300 5594 100 4267 5697 105
Total if? 5494 5802

So there you have it, my first official prediction. Capriles winning by 300,000. If any one can prove me wrong, you are welcome to make your case.  It should not be too difficult as there is a lot of guessing and gut feeling above.  But be warned that it is coherent and based on much more than how many people show up at Capriles rallies or do not show up at Chavez shows. If one were to use that criteria Capriles by now would be winning by a couple of million of votes.

In other words, what I am hinting at is that this election more than ever will depend on abstention, this one this time jeopardizing the chances of Chavez as his followers may not be ready to vote for Capriles but are more than ready to stay home in disgust.  That is the number to watch on polls and through election day.