Let the postmortem-s begin, idiocy, wretchedness and primaries

I was going to wait until tomorrow but three things made find the way back to the key board.  First, the CNE did publish at least the governor result (the legislative results are another thing, not all up and complete enough for a few more hours). Second, the response of the opposition through Capriles and Aveledo was a little bit more combative than last time. Apparently they have learned something from October 7. And third, idiocies like this one need to be addressed ASAP.

colette capriles ‏@cocap

Coincido: pasar de ganar dos estados el 7O a cuatro es un logro, en estas condiciones tan adversas. Felicitaciones a la Unidad. A trabajar.

"I agree: coming from winning 2 states to 4 is an achievement, in such contrary conditions".

I will start by 3 if you forgive me. That someone who has such a high opinion of herself as frequent Globovision guest writes such an idiocy is dangerous  Besides comparing apples and oranges she is failing to read the result of today. We LOST states from 2008, and not insignificant ones: Zulia and Carabobo which Lara is far from compensating. The result of today is the result of 6 years of deliberate social dependency creation in the Venezuelan electorate. That Chavez disease was milked for all its worth by chavismo who survived massive abstention compounds the problem. I am aghast that already such self complacency has started!!!!

Fortunately we can move on 2 to compensate, with a more combative speech from Capriles and Aveledo. The Capriles one is not worth really commenting much but the Aveledo is. Besides not recognizing yet the results he also reminds people that the battle is not over because the "irresponsible" actions of the regime have created a crisis that will be played next year.  Let's see if the MUD is able to force the recognition of a Bolivar victory tomorrow.

Which brings us to the first point, the "provisional" results and what they mean, for starters, for the opposition.

First, primaries are not a panacea for candidate choosing. Republicans in the US have rediscovered that with some failed tea party Senate candidates. In Venezuela in some states where old ex governors were running, after winning a primary against new talent, we can see that open primaries in some areas is a waste of time and money. In Apure, Lippa got only 24%. In Cojedes ever running and running again Galindez got 37%.  And in Portuguesa Colmenares gets a truly embarrassing 22%.

And even when reelection was not sought, disaster could come. Merida is a pathetic example where Lester Rodriguez won the primary, Capriles won in October and yet Lester could not overcome the local prejudice against him and only got 39%. Not 49%, 39%..... When local divisions are this deep primaries are useless, or should come at least with a two round ballot or something.

But before you use this to condemn primaries in 4 states where primaries were not held we bit the dust: Zulia, Nueva Esparta, Tachira and Carabobo.  It seems to me that primaries  were run where they were not needed.  A lesson there. Someone reading?

Second, the race for the opposition leadership is far from clear. True, Capriles won but with barely 4 points whereas Falcon in Lara did get a more convincing 12 point advance. Can anyone claim without the faintest of doubts that Capriles is still the lone and unique and best candidate against Chavez or Maduro? I, for one, do not think it so.

Third, as if this was not enough trouble for the opposition preparations for presidential elections coming probably next February, we must underline the wretchedness of a bulk of chavismo electorate. You may remember a post from a couple of weeks ago where I even put up an amateur map describing the drug/FARC corridor about to be set up from Colombia to Guarico state. Well, let's look at the results of the governors involved.

Zulia. The most "normal" result, with Arias Cardena who is more of a nincompoop than an actual delinquent- 52%-
Trujillo. Diaz Rangel, major sucker up to Chavez  on the drug trafficker list of the DEA, of anti democratic certified credentials, gets 82 fucking % in Trujillo.
Portuguesa. Here we get the reelection of a heavily contested chavista but how so close to Chavez. He managed to double the chavista dissident leaving in third the opposition one....
Cojedes. The talibanic bitch gets easily 62%.
Guarico. I saved you the best for last, the end of the road, Guarico, where Rodriguez Chacin got 73%.  In addition to be on all sorts of international crime lists which basically stop him form ever leaving Venezuela, he is also the videotaped devoted friend of the FARC guerilla.

I mean, let's be serious, how can you reach an electorate that votes for such scum?

Electoral note 3: the results are truly awful

The results are in.  I did spend actually a rather relaxing day, no TV, little computer.  But I semi tuned in this evening and the wait with the CNE on TV, the general mess, the armed civilians as if it were for war, remind me that we are becoming ever more of  the 4th world. That sort of did me in a little bit before any result was published.  Oh well....

Around 7 PM from the chavista headquarters here in San Felipe we could hear quite a few fireworks so I knew that as expected Yaracuy was a loss for the opposition.  No surprise whatsoever.  The surprise will come if Biagio Pilieri makes it to 45%.

I did not watch CNE's head Tibisay on TV again: I cannot stomach her anymore so I waited for the thing to pop up on the net to write this. I even kept Twitter in cool mode ...  So there we go: an unmitigated disaster for the opposition. Abstention was worse for our side than for chavismo as I expected since the electoral machinery of chavismo would give it an edge in this scenario.  The little bit of extra voting in late afternoon was too little  too late.

My "opposition defeat" 3+1 scenario was actually not good enough: we lost even Tachira, due to opposition divisions even though we won it against Chavez.  Mendez in Tachira has some serious accounting to do. We also lost Monagas were we went divided and the MUD would have to explain why the primaries of Monagas were iron clad but why in Miranda Capriles was allowed to push away Ocariz to get a very, very meager 4% margin. At least, since we must find silver linings wherever we can, for better or for worse the leaders of the opposition are now Henri Falcon and Henrique Capriles. Good thing it seems they get along fine.

I was very pessimistic in my forecast but this is even worse...  What happened?

The "pity" effect for Chavez worked in full. There is no other way to account for defeats in Aragua or the close score in Miranda.

The idea that a governor in the Chavez camp was overall better for the people, contrary to any evidence, has made inroads. Otherwise how to account for the loss in Zulia?

The opposition did not vote because of idiotic angst. That played badly in Nueva Esparta, Anzoategui, Carabobo and Miranda mainly.

For all of its talk of primaries and going against Chavez eternal reelection amendment in 2009 the opposition had two dynasties in Carabobo and Nueva Esparta that overstayed their welcome.

Paradoxically divisions inside chavismo played in its favor at least in one state: Merida.

The insecurity fears played in favor of Chavez running military personnel for states. Even if all the evidence says that a military governor is no better for security this certainly helped in Zulia (unbelievably!), in Tachira and in Nueva Esparta.

And more reasons that can come up as I start perusing the results.

But right now there is no need to elaborate: we are a wretched country and what I wrote on October 7  evening is even more valid today. In the face of an upcoming crisis, rampant inflation, crime and more crime and the electoral fraud of running a sick man in October, the Venezuelan people either stayed home or went to vote for whomever Chavez pointed at. We are an idiotic country and we are going to get what we deserve.

This is not anymore about Romney 47% or my own 43% estimate of those who hate me. We need to add a few points of the idiots in the opposition that thought by not voting today they would "do something". They did shit.  In short, there are more than 50% of Venezuelans that I am embarrassed to share an passport with and I am afraid this number is going to grow further.  They are the people that find it fine to live in shit as long as Chavez gives them an occasional handout and people that prefer to wave their arms rather than perform the basic elemental act of voting.

Woe is us.